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"The *scientific polls* aren't picking up these people that my *hunch* says exist."

Remember the PUMA movement (a small but noticeable chunk of Hillary voters voting for McCain)? 15-25% did and Obama was able to flip Indiana.

Mmmm hmmmm. And you will find me on the cover of Canine Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition.....

I mean I’m his neighbor and I don’t really know anyone like that around here so… yeah. Exactly like that.

Republicans do this with every group every election cycle and it's always bullshit and the press always falls all over themselves to report on it. It's all those white people with twitter accounts pretending to be black people.

How many those staunch supposedly Democrats just happen to think Trump never lost an election?

"they are so turned off by El-Sayed" Or maybe, possibly, I'm just speculating, they are so turned off by having a Muslim run for senator.

Metro Detroit has approximately 75,000 Jewish people. Not exactly a huge demographic.

That like, describes all of five people all of whom probably signed onto this press release

"The polls are not picking up something that I just have vibes is happening, but my vibes are WAY more reliable than polling, so I am 100% sure the polls are wrong."

Michigan polls also haven’t picked up the Hindu vote, or the Unitarian vote, or the Wiccan vote. The list of 1% groups whose opinions I can just assume and generalize is long. Your doomed Muslim socialist guy.

LMFAOOOOOOOOOO DISREGARD

oh that makes much more sense.

This fucking guy.

oh the NYT village idiot

Yeah, not Dem US Sen Gary Peters; threw me for a moment

Peters is, in this case, this fellow here

If you're changing your entire political outlook because of the candidate's race or religion, you might be a racist.

The American press is dead. We don't pay any attention to them. America is Russia light.

sounds like a generous rephrasing of "I talked to five people in the Detroit suburbs"

Tbf Jeremy Peters is a tool

Jeremy Peters is the biggest self-important blowhard to come out of the New York Times since Jonathan Martin.

The pre-primary polls in Michigan certainly were shitty. They predicted a double-digit runaway for El-Sayed.

Is this Jeremy "Musk isn't actually Conservative" Peters?

All MY friends are voting for Nixon, so ...

if you tell me yard signs are just an example of an anecdote, I reject science

And boats! The boats are key.

“I have never once seen X,” or, “I’ve been doing Y my whole life and have always seen Z,” is never a good argument.

This was me the weekend before the election. www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix...

I prefer rally attendance as a bell weather.

Every candidate who has ever been behind in the polls has been absolutely full of sentences beginning with "Well, I only tell you what we're hearing on the doorstep..."

The only thing that could make Peter's argument have any statistical validity and evidence would be a poll of some kind.

The Peggy Noonan yard signs in DC test

and as regular as the tides: in every election of any consequence those people will be with us

The fault is not in the polls but in ourselves

Mom said that?

Or a beautiful oversample in some cases if you really need to know what we think.

right like why wouldn't these people be answering polls and saying "yeah I'll vote for the R" in the same rates as anyone else

Hey—she went to a dinner party in Israel and no one cared about it, so why should CBS reporters make a big deal about it? Sheesh.

I was going to ask who is Peters but of course it's Jeremy fucking Peters. That guy is such a dumb hack

See also what @conspirator0.bsky.social revealed about “Dems for Mike Rogers”

It’s not like the pollster haven’t weighted them into their models. Most r using similar turnout levels to 2024, which if anything over samples Rs for 2026.

They have no clue at all about Jewish Democrats.

I don’t know about that. As someone who grew up in the Jewish community in metro Detroit where the synagogue was attacked last spring, it’s also been shocking to me seeing the progressive Jewish folks I know coming out against El Sayed & for Rogers. Israel is very important to that community.

How many could there be in this group?

Wouldnt "staunch" Dems turning on AES be one thing polls would definitely pick up on????

I'm sad to say that I know people exactly like this. They've been in an echo-chamber since Oct. 7.

The polls aren't picking it up because it is bullshit, plain and simple. Do not believe it.

Jeremy Peters, who Steve Bannon called “my buddy from the New York Times.”

Obviously the polls are wrong and the vocal people represent a large minority 😂

Sadly, I do have a few relatives who have bought into the lie that he’s antisemitic. They’re not going to vote for Rogers, they’re going to leave the ballot blank. Hopefully they change their minds.

I mean, polls aren’t perfect, but how is he quantifying these voters the polls “aren’t picking up” if not through polling? If he can’t give a number, then it’s just meaningless anecdotes.

Only about 1% of the population of Michigan is Jewish. This means: 1. Polls can't "pick" up movement among them, as you'd expect a typical random polling sample to contain a single digit number of Jewish respondents; 2. Even if there is a big swing it will have a miniscule effect on vote totals.

Who is Peters?

Please specify your Peters. When I first read this clip, I thought, "That can't be @peters.senate.gov. Why would he say that about the race to replace him? He's much smarter than that." Took me a minute to realize it was a lesser Peters.

Usually if your polling involves coping that the pollsters just missed an entire class of voter you're on track to underperform what the supposedly-wrong polls have you at even.

It's made up shit.

ALT

This is such a weird thing to say, the layers upon layers of racism and bigotry is just astounding. Very “these two groups of people have hated each other since before Christ” stereotyping.

Jeremy Peters is a credulous imbecile and has been for a long time. presswatchers.org/2021/11/so-m...

As a lifelong Democrat and New Yorker, I can tell you I absolutely will not be voting for AES this November.

Report the vibes and then pretend to correct it later

Whoever this person is seems to think very poorly of Jews, in that he assumes that they would all be Islamophobic.

Bitch, please.

I mean, yes, good guess.

bsky.app/profile/hyle...

Ironically, Jeremy Peters *is* that simple.

Well, it's not so simple: Is a Nazi really a Conservative? After all, they were Socialists (sorta)

It isn't even that. It is the notion that highly educated liberal Jewish voters in the Detroit metro will flip a lifetime of political allegiances because Fox News is obsessing about some twitch podcaster from southern California who is friends with one of the candidates. They aren't that stupid.

Not to mention, there are 200k Muslim voters. How many will come out to vote for AES that would have stayed home with a different candidate? Partially neutralizing Jewish dem votes lost (if that’s happening).

Yeah, Jews have been hurt by Trump and Netanyahu.

Or even intelligent…

If memory serves, ~72% of Jewish men and ~82% of Jewish women voted for Harris in 2024. There have always been right-wing voters, but they’ve never been a majority.

This is right He needs to pick up the votes in Detroit- apparently the early voting there has been good according to my Michigan friends.

a SHORT bus.

Yeah. I also think costal media types really underestimate the currents of right wing Christian nationalism in Midwest culture because their main touch points there are nice tourist destinations and college towns.

If he loses it will more likely because rural Michiganders like my cousins in Au Gres will be uncomfortable with a Muslim, not because educated liberal Jews in the Detroit suburbs are.

Is anyone reporting on support for Abdul from Dearborn? Or are we gonna ignore Michigan’s big Arab community?

Some folks really overestimating the number of people living in about six square blocks of West Bloomfield.

These are my friends and neighbors. It is very easy to “pick up” which of them, and how many, are struggling with their Michigan Senate vote. It is harder to know how they will actually vote as they make what is for them an agonizing decision.

while many lifelong Dems may consider such a silly move, ALL OF THEIR CHILDREN are supporting the Anti-Nazi party i.e., the Dem Candidate

I suppose it's a Bradley effect claim, which is pretty debateable. And would be especially hard to identify until after the election.

the most obvious possible reason that polls aren’t picking people with this specific profile up is that there aren’t that many of them

I'm also not hearing anything about the gnome and Bigfoot blocs. How am I supposed to make an informed decision?

So -- help me understand this --- Jewish voters, who have cultural history in living under fascist tyranny and exterminations, have an issue with Abdul El Sayed because he doesn't approve of the Israeli president slaughtering and exterminating Palestinians?