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This reminds me a lot of the economy discussion in 2024. On paper things look good yet people feel like they are struggling. In this case the phenomenon is to our benefit since Trump is in office and thus taking the blame. His approval rating on the economy is what matters the most and it is low.

And this isn't all Trump's fault but he has done remarkably little to address it and have arguably weakened the capability to address a crisis.

I agree. To me, the risk of recession seems far more likely from a sudden crisis than a controlled slowdown (although an externally-driven slowdown might be the trigger for the crisis).

This over promise but under deliver method is characteristic of him (& his class), even in sectors they claim to be focused on like a laser beam.

The important question is the size of the loss vs the non-Trump counterfactual, I guess, given factors driving economic performance that Trump has had no effect upon.

whatatake.com/c/k5mpjtk6ksny

some of us may be experiencing dissonance because the economy being in a great shape has nothing to do with a way that ‘greatness’ is distributed across society? there must be some social value measure that can be applied to Economy that would tell us more accurately how we’re doing?

While you’re cooking, do you have an explanation for the warehouse construction fall-off? bsky.app/profile/jose...

It's creating marginally slightly more goods at a significantly higher human cost while the Administration actively hampers it's ability to achieve peak performance. Not really a mystery why people think it sucks!

Trump should be getting the Obama post-2008 bitchfest of "should be better tho"

Beyond that 15mos, seems like Uncle Sam is currently boxing with one arm in a sling. If we stabilized the tariff craziness, forcefully pushed renewable energy conversion, accelerated federal housing construction in smart places, decided higher ed research was a priority again, growth could jump, no?

It may be more like X under Elon Musk; a slow painful decay. On the other hand, it's hard to judge just what will be a tipping point; some apparently minor problem might lead to a dramatic failure.

I guess we will see. In my experience, the combination of rising oil/food/energy prices, stocks trading at high multiples, above target inflation and rising interest rates doesn't always end well.

I have to admit I am a bit surprised by the state of the "economy" I am a trained economist-not paid since grad school I generally agree with you here. The problem, however, is the micro. That is a mixed bag with some extreme situations. The zip code effects seem to be at some record levels.

Another factor may be that the government isn’t actually *doing* anything. Apart from triggering the risk of a global energy crisis (!), the Executive is basically performative. And Congress has kinda given up. So perhaps what we see in the data is an economy largely on autopilot?

First half got revised up to +2.4% over the first two quarters today; Q3 now tracking 3.7%; that would mean 2.8% annualized through three quarters if that holds.

Trends for GDP run long and slow. 2.1% is meaningfully above where we were running pre-COVID, and readings in that period were a mess. So. Y’know.

I would either use change in unemployment rate or change in PAEPOP.

What's the logic there? The percentage of the population that's older than standard working age increased, but it didn't double.

While 15 months is pretty realistic to be "decent", the energy chocks and the worse relations with the rest of the world mean that there is a very real risk that things can hit a major imbalance very rapidly. Food, fuel and gambling on multiple ventures leave the US economy less stable than before

I think it comes down to: 1. Does the AI build slow, stop, or crash out, and when 2. What sectors, if any, take up the slack 3. 🤷