David Herdson

By "deeply unpredictable", they mean 'we're waiting on the Israeli exit polls but if he gets back, it's really, really predictable; we just can't say it right now'.

Farage's response here was dreadful in moral terms - but also in appearance: evasive to start with then outright racist to conclude He won't get away with this in an election. The public will notice. He'd have been in trouble earlier about his £5m gift if Nugent had any awareness of the issue.

Mao was an appalling person. If doing deals with China is contingent on saluting his memory, then people shouldn't be doing those deals.

Interesting article from Ashcroft. Those in favour of addressing global heating need to do much better on: - showing how the rest of the world is also acting (most of it is), and - making the cost of living cheaper, as well as protecting the environment. lordashcroftpolls.com/2026/10/mos-...

I agree with this. The political class is still jumping at shadows and there's a good and potentially popular case to be made for Schengen on its merits.

I was having conversations with journalists just a few months ago about whether democracy was doomed. Look at this year: Orban defeated. Vukic defeated. Bolsonaro Jr defeated. Trump heading to likely defeat in midterms. That’s the beauty of democracy. Voters can respond. Don’t count it out yet.

Yeah, good. (Many Chinese cars also not allowed on Bundeswehr bases either)

I would hope that America's "NATO allies" (lol) realized a long time ago that Trump & co could (and would) weaponise critical dependence for their own interests. But if they did, they're taking their time doing anything about it.

This is a ridiculous policy from Plaid, that will cost far more, and take much longer, than it should. If it feels very HS2, that's because it *is* very HS2. I hope the UK govt ensures that these extra costs are all borne by those producing or consuming in Wales. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

It's now close enough to the US mid-terms that Trump could resume military action against Iran and not run out of missiles before polling day.

This is exactly the point. The key factor in addressing global heating is *reducing demand*. However, while demand is still there, supply needs to be met. I'd much rather Britain benefitted in both security and financial terms by producing, than having to rely on dodgy dictators.

Some good news (from the National Crime Survey, h/t frasernelson.substack.com/p/lawless-br...)

A 75-25 (ish) split in the Alberta pre-independence referendum is a huge margin. Two fingers up to Trump and the issue off the table for years.

Andy Burnham's policy priorities does sometimes feel like a list of annoyances he's noted down as they've hit him (or people near him). However, while minor, if the govt follows through, they'll be the sort of thing that the public notices and Labour can campaign on in election material.

It's not surprising that the American political system works in favour of big money when a mid-term congressional election runs up spending of over $2.2bn (so far). It's a lesson other countries should watch and learn from.

When the tech-bros and their allies attack "the establishment" or "the elite", what they mean is "any site of power - including the democratic state - that might restrict their own actions". The alternative is not "freedom"; it is power for themselves to make decisions otherwise made by the state.

It's not particularly surprising that most of the oldest leaders in the list below (those over 75, say) struggled with health problems towards the end of their term - though notable all the same. And almost all had either clearly declining health or declining political ability, or both.

Donald Trump is 80 years and 127 days old today. That's one day older that Winston Churchill was when he retired as UK PM in 1955. As such, Trump is now the third-oldest leader of any G7 country since 1945.

No ISBNs in Canada for AI writing. This is a fantastic policy, and every country should do the same. www.canada.ca/en/library-a...

This would be a disastrous result for France and Europe. Obviously, France's silly electoral system would be in large part responsible but you can't excuse a public where well over half vote for Le Pen, Melenchon or their like. Nor can you excuse a mainstream unable to win on its own merits.

In this week's @navigatepolitics.uk weekly roundup, I looked into the most prolific names of our councillors... 📈 The most popular overall? Dave ➡️ The most Reform? Karl 🌹 The most Labour? Lynn 🌳 The most Tory? Roger 🔶 The most Lib Dem? Julian 🌍 The most Green? Natalie

I found this an interesting article. I can't help but notice the similarities between the 4th century capture of the tax system by local elites in the Western Roman Empire (which led to a collapse in revenue) and the modern day United States. weltinnenpolitik.substack.com/p/bloch-webe...

Trump having trouble here with the concept of numbers that actually mean something.

The differences between the EU’s radical parties are substantive, not cosmetic. Their opponents should, for once, act strategically and work to drive a deeper wedge between the two groups on existential questions such as those mentioned above.

Surely one of the presenters could have said: "Wait a minute Chris, that makes absolutely no sense at all." But I guess that would require the presenters to be proper journalists.

It's amusing / concerning that investors still see US bonds as 'safety'. 1. The US govt is run by serial defaulter Trump. He will do it again if it suits him. 2. Political gridlock and process could also send things off the edge. 3. Even if not 1/2, inflation / FX risk debases payout on maturity.

Badenoch's position on Russian interference in the Brexit vote is a patriotic disgrace really. Her view seems to be that because she approves of the outcome of the referendum, no-one can mention that there was very likely to have been foreign interference in it.

The BBC's reporters completely missing the point here. Yes, Burnham did say that. More importantly, he *didn't* reject, dismiss or counter Ed Davey's point that Trump's diesel deal with Putin is a "shameful ... betrayal of the Ukrainian people and European security". www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Fascinating chart, clearly demonstrating: - a traditional left-right divide ('not enough to go round' links to immigration; 'enough to go round' links to redistribution), and - mainstream vs disruptors (borderline 4.8 on Fairness: Res/Ref/Grn/SNP all less likely to think they get their fair share)

It's very pleasant to see a prime minister actually try and answer the questions and address the issues at #PMQs . It's making for a welcome more serious atmosphere in the House in general.

This is not an either-or. Similarly, as @samfr.bsky.social notes, small businesses also avoid a lot of tax. The govt really should spend much more on tax enforcement. It would return strong dividends.

These are really ugly debt numbers for the world to be carrying when there's nothing unusual going on. Particularly when there's an an much higher than normal risk that something economically unusual will go on.

Another on the list of "things that are obvious from the evidence yet ignored" is "current immigration policy will deliver a great big hole in future budgets". The OBR currently assumes net migration bottoms out at 200k then rises. That isn't going to happen

Related note: parties should not be able to decide the dates of elections. It would be much better if there were a formula to determine the date that, say, published notice of election about a month after the vacancy occured (maybe with exceptions for summer and Christmas, and with a 6-month rule).

Reform have conducted an independent inquiry and announced they won the Holborn and St Pancras byelection.

On a purely political level, Polanski would be better just coming out and backing his party's vote. It's obvious he won't criticise it. Trying to dodge criticism from the public who note the party position, and from members who would dislike his opposition, will just antagonise both and look weak.

Absolutely wonderful preview of the by-election by @andrewteale.me.uk: really conveys so much of what makes the seat very unusual and I learnt a lot I didn’t know: