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Update of ncearly.peark.es after day 2 of early vote. A better day for Republicans but they’re still way behind Dem/Unaf bogies. While Ds are crushing their 2022 benchmark on a same-voter basis, Rs are lagging. Modeled low propensity voters are turning out huge for D, weak for R, & strong for Unaf.

Big turnout in the Black Belt esp CD2 territory - something to watch for read-throughs nationally.

Another update of ncearly.peark.es: Dems continue to blow the doors off while Republicans are running below 2022 levels. Latino early vote ballots approaching *2024* levels, Dems are crushing the low propensity turnout battle, and are seeing a higher share of ballots than 2022 almost everywhere.

This is still relatively low-information content data but the message is astoundingly strong.

Day 4 update from ncearly.peark.es shows an *incredibly* blue electorate versus early votes from 2018 and 2022. This can change with a Republican EDay surge but it will have to be very large...or EV trends will have to shift dramatically (and no sign of that with EV over 20% complete).

Dem and Unaf raw ballots are +60% versus 2022, Rep are down 9%. That is *massive* and does not account for any persuasion. 15.6% of Dems who voted in 2022 have voted already, that was 9.1% in the last cycle. Reps are 6.7% vs 7.4%. Low Rep turnout led by recent R registrants.

D-R turnout gap swing is everywhere, including key Black Belt counties, the huge vote blocks in Wake and Mecklenburg, and almost all of Western NC. The breadth of these numbers are so strong that I think the NCGA House is in play.

This is *possible* but it would imply a significant change in behavior versus 2022 (this is matched-day analysis, so we're accounting for the cohort effects of each day of EV) and it doesn't explain why Unaffiliateds are actually *outperforming* Dems or why low-propensity Dems are leading the charge

IDK what to tell you man, there are only two midterms with even plausibly comparable electorates/data (2018 and 2022). There is *far* more information content comparing versus a 2022 baseline than a blank slate or a Presidential year. You work with the data you have.

ncearly.peark.es is updated for Day 6 of early vote. Black, Asian, Latino, and Democratic-registered voter share of the electorate running *above 2024 levels* while registered Republicans are 20.7% of ballots....they were 33.6% in 2024 and around 30% the last two midterms. White Rs are the reason.

Looking *only* at people who voted early in-person in 2022 and 2026, 28.1% of Democrats have cast a ballot...that metric was 17.0% in 2022. Republicans are at 15.3% versus 16.6% in 2022. Unaffiliateds are 21.3% vs 15.2% in the last midterms. This is NOT just mode-shifts, it's MUCH more than that.

Democrats are crushing their benchmarks on turnout across the propensity spectrum. Republicans are way behind. Republicans can make up ground with a turnout surge on E-Day but every day in early vote like this means falling further and further behind.

Finally, Dem-adjacent Unaffiliateds are crushing Rep-adjacent Unaffiliateds. Every possible signal in the early vote data is positively screaming an extremely Dem electorate relative to 2022 and 2018, and while we can't find much evidence on persuasion either way...just look at the polls.

No charts breakdown for ncearly.peark.es today but the data is updated - key takeaway is that Republican turnout is starting to pick up but is still below 2022 benchmark let alone keeping up with Dems. White Republican electorate share picking up towards normal but still far below typical.

Over one-third of Unaffiliateds who took a Dem primary ballot have voted already, versus a 26%-28% benchmark from 2022/2018. For Rs it's 23%, roughly in-line with 2022. Rs who voted in primaries are also underperforming 2018 EV turnout at this stage.

Will dump charts later but same story as Tuesday - White Republican turnout continues to gain ground while lagging 2018/2022 benchmarks significantly. Rep IPEV 2022 -> IPEV 2026 conversion almost caught up to the equiv benchmark from 2022. See everything at ncearly.peark.es

Despite the improvement from Republicans as IPEV rolls along, they lag Dems and Unnafs dramatically and the electorate continues to look *way* bluer than the equivalent point in 2018/2022, and modeled low propensity Dem turnout continues to run WAY hotter than Rep. Same for Dem-adjacent unnaf.

Is there any way to look at the numbers and tell if this is Dems & Unaf voting early instead of on election day? I suppose we can't know total turnout until after the election to tell if new people have been brought into vote.

Yes. Mode-shift is *part* of what's going on. But it's more than that. For example if we look at IPEV voters in 2022 and see what share have voted IPEV in 2026, Dems/Unaf are running WAY ahead of 2022. Whereas Reps are way behind.