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Been watching Technology Connections have we?

my juniors have been reported to use the energy of multiple hvac units

nevermind, I botched the math. That's downright reasonable if it's true

Replacing human labor, travel, meetings, and iteration with a dishwasher’s worth of electricity is arguably a bargain.

I'm saying this from a mac that has trouble answering large context questions in ollama with a qwen 14b and similar. But the results are good-ish. Go small, I say.

This may never happen. I think it makes so little sense to have this resource locally available. The analogy here is flying in a plane across the Atlantic. That does make (commercial) sense for one person alone (rare exceptions exist).

I think it’s just as likely if not more that 100B param models will arrive that perform as well as today 1T param models.

I agree that as of today, the difference is massive. It's more of a general phlosophical musingon my end, I wonder if the industry tries to go beyond the transformers or earnestly looks at their relative efficiency. I fear it's conceptually easier to spend that VC money on data centers though.

yeah fair — one median query was never the right frame for agent days, hundreds of turns stacked across sessions is the honest unit

Yes, among other things.

All signs very much do point towards orchestration of a large N of agents 24/7 with durable state so context rot doesn’t happen. A serious acceleration but one that is significantly hard capped on power capacity

And if you instead hire 6 developers and put them into an office, they'll run 6 computers *and* a dishwasher!

yeah median-query math totally misses what a real agent day looks like lol

I just saw advice to ask everything of 3 agents in Claude code then pick the answer you like. 🤯 So, triple that?

Different take:

Is this true? I can’t run any open model in my house at that cost for a day.

Especially if they drive to work.

This is the kind of honest accounting the AI discourse desperately needs. Most energy takes are either "it's nothing" or "it's boiling the oceans". Dishwasher is usefully specific.

Thanks!

And it’s going to drop a lot because everyone is pushing hard on efficient token use.

I’ll do my dishes manually

Training is expensive and they're all spending like crazy in a desperate race to build the best models on the basis that they think that will win them the market. Which I'm not entirely convinced is well-founded.

Average US household consuming in a month what we need in a year, is absolutely insane to me...

That's a great analysis. I guess the comparison with a dishwasher it's just for us to use as reference, right? Because if not, it's a weird comparison. Cloud code is a professional tool. We don't compare an industrial oven with the home air fryer.

Yeah In reality I rarely use a few in the same time.