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5/ Russian forces conducted a massive missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on October 21 to 22 following the October 21 meeting between Witkoff and Putin- a continuation of Russia’s pattern of launching large strike packages in the days before and after major peace talks.

Noting also that Poutine can only allow talk about negotiations by way of repeating the genocidal “one people” claim about Ukraine. His fixed goal remains the elimination of a sovereign, independent nation - if not by destruction than by digestion!

Continuing to see a lot more 'Ukrainian forces advanced' than 'Russian forces advanced' lately which is the main takeaway to me: the movement is still in largely one direction and it's the good direction.

The tell is the sequencing. Moscow floats talks whenever its fiscal buffer thins, then asks Washington to unlock the revenue for the next drone batch. Concessions here arent a peace track, theyre a line of credit for the war.

Thank you ISW. This is spot on. Great analysis. (Id slightly change the wording about concessions from the US. The US government WANTS to give in to russia, so it ain’t a concession.)