Ariel Edwards-Levy

Excited to share some tips for writing about polls for anyone coming in cold to the subject! (Pictured: a thing on which pollsters are probably not calling you these days).

missed opportunity to half-sample with "Ben Gibbard's Postal Service"

I really love this series of questions. (Survey research! It's useful for any number of things beyond asking people which candidate they would vote for if the election were held today!)

all voters included in the survey have been validated, by which we mean that in the introduction of the survey, we told them that their feelings were important

Lot of fear of people lying to polls. We don't have much evidence for it & don't need it to explain error. People uncomfortable sharing their choice are more likely to be in the now ~98% of people who don't respond than to take ~20 min survey to lie. Non-response much bigger deal

girls just want a neverending series of slight variations on udon vegetable soup

actually, the great thing about being in the office on a Sunday is that you have a whole extra day in the week to get some of your work out of the way, she said brokenly but with genuine enthusiasm

what a fun time for somebody to change their name legally to "Earl E. Voder" and do a lot of interviews

"maggie's farm" is a lot funnier if you imagine the entire thing being delivered as an interview answer to "so, mr. dylan, why are you looking to move on from your current job?"

😎

this, although I make an exception for the University of Arizona account that keeps sending me space facts because I love space facts

the sheep detectives 2: ewe can see everything

this is so dumb and I'm very proud of it

bands and singers I expected to sound significantly more hardcore than they ended up sounding, an incomplete list: death cab for cutie dismemberment plan kurt vile 10,000 maniacs

When Voters Prioritize Economics Over Culture, the Electoral Battleground Expands: honestgraft.substack.com/p/when-voter...

Really great to see polling that tells us more about the lives and beliefs of smaller subgroups that are difficult to capture in broader national surveys

have we already done PRESSED SECRETARY

unsettled to report that status has somehow obtained audio of the meeting* where I reach for a pun that would have worked better in text and everybody groans at my shit *fine, meetings

workshopping a "produce election"/"banana split ticket" joke; it's going to be the smoothest, least belabored thing you ever saw

Good morning Bluesky! This feels like a good time to re-up my primer to getting the most out of midterm election polling, as well as my advice that the correct answer to "can we trust the polls" is "trust them to do what"? Understand the limitations, also the uses. www.cnn.com/2026/09/09/p...

*tom petty, preparing to deliver multiple surveys* weighting four tonight weighting four tonight

Most Americans aren't political pundits, but the public's predictions about the November midterms aren't too far off from those of experts: A 55% majority say Democrats will win the House, while fewer (46%) expect Democrats to take the Senate. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

the only whalefall I am willing to know about

this is undoubtedly true but I'm glad Janis Joplin kept workshopping

What does Democratic primary enthusiasm mean for midterms?

look, I know it can feel like the years fly by like days, but