JLRay

JLRay

@jlray.bsky.social

Texas. Senior director of polling at YouGov. Adviser to Young Men Research Initiative. johnlray.github.io

5.7K followers1.9K following7.1K posts

JLRay reposted

NEW: "Donald Trump was an active participant in Jeffrey Epstein’s sexual abuse of young women during the mid-to-late 1990s," per new House Judiciary Dem report. Report has new allegation that Trump raped a 24-year-old and then promised the victim a visa & NYU admission, demanding she stay quiet.

JLRay reposted

As far as our data can tell this is pretty much unambiguously good news for Democrats. Young voters strongly favor the Dems this cycle, including young men allianceforyouthpower.org/wp-content/u...

Dj@djsoke.bsky.social

18-29 turnout by party reg in NC second table is what percentage of total votes is coming from 18-29 voters, overall a meaningfully younger electorate than 2022 so far, but very asymmetric

I think this observation is correct and is a good time-saver for people agonizing over whether Dems are "reaching" young people: you'll know they are if their ideas win an audience. Little of the "manosphere" is ideological - these guys mostly just want an audience ymrp.substack.com/p/is-joe-rog...

ymrp.substack.comIs Joe Rogan Really Turning on Trump?In some ways, yes. In many ways, not really.
mtsw@mtsw.bsky.social

I didn't realize there was a sharp downturn in Youtube influencer ad and sponsorship revenue. May be an underrated contribution to both the "why are economic vibes are terrible" conversation and the "why did Gen Z turn on Trump" conversation youtu.be/vCMfltmszHY?...

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Few influencers have any impact on public opinion whatsoever -- the overwhelming majority of fans of *most* influencers know they're full of it and only watch their content for entertainment, *not* for trusted opinions! ymrp.substack.com

The question Democrats should be asking themselves is, Are we sufficiently astute in the media landscape to get our view out there in a convincing, relatable way? They should NOT be assuming they're approaching a hostile audience with young men. This is a swing, persuadable electorate - swing them!

I think this observation is correct and is a good time-saver for people agonizing over whether Dems are "reaching" young people: you'll know they are if their ideas win an audience. Little of the "manosphere" is ideological - these guys mostly just want an audience ymrp.substack.com/p/is-joe-rog...

ymrp.substack.comIs Joe Rogan Really Turning on Trump?In some ways, yes. In many ways, not really.
mtsw@mtsw.bsky.social

I didn't realize there was a sharp downturn in Youtube influencer ad and sponsorship revenue. May be an underrated contribution to both the "why are economic vibes are terrible" conversation and the "why did Gen Z turn on Trump" conversation youtu.be/vCMfltmszHY?...

The network of podcasts and content creators we call the "manosphere" is only partially an ideological project. Yes, right-wing donors invested heavily in winning young men - but most of this stuff is just guys who want subscribers, who will tailor their content appropriately for their viewers.

It is 2026 and bored talentless political commentators desperate for a new angle are litigating a good Obama zinger in a desperate quest for any evidence that he is not as in touch with the working class as NYC-based 1%-ers who cosplay as moderate Republicans on CNN are

JLRay reposted

Sushi in Japan is for rich tourists and corporate expense accounts, not normal people. At nominal exchange rates (eg tourists), the median American is richer than all but the top 5% of Japanese households, and even adjusting for PPP differences they’re comfortably in the top quartile.

Lycopersicon Esculentum@lycopersicon.bsky.social

@evanwch.bsky.social Most Americans think the Cheesecake Factory is a "nice and fancy restaurant" while the French get farm fresh cheese at gas stations and the Japanese get flawless sushi in subway stations BECAUSE US capitalism has kept us poor and abject. So that's for pointing our the problem.

sounds like jack lowden is in the final running for james bond. if someone is capable of faithfully portraying both bond and river cartwright, the oscars better get ready. for acting and casting

As far as our data can tell this is pretty much unambiguously good news for Democrats. Young voters strongly favor the Dems this cycle, including young men allianceforyouthpower.org/wp-content/u...

Dj@djsoke.bsky.social

18-29 turnout by party reg in NC second table is what percentage of total votes is coming from 18-29 voters, overall a meaningfully younger electorate than 2022 so far, but very asymmetric

"The gender gap persists, but its because _everyone_ swung left this cycle" is going to be a very important analytical point. Young people are generally more persuadable and Democrats are only going to have a "mandate" insofar as they capitalize on the anger and ambition that drove the 2026 vote.

JLRay reposted

no matter how sure you are that these guys have broken a whole bunch of laws, you aren't nearly as certain as they are

Holly Brewer@earlymodjustice.bsky.social

“Several conservative organizations …— including the Heritage Foundation and American Moment — have pressed White House counsel to either prepare pardons or put in place funding for the legal fees necessary to defend junior staffers from criminal and congressional probes or potential lawsuits.”

JLRay reposted

"Most of the cheap cuts of meat are very inexpensive. You can buy liver or the cheap cuts." This man has never set foot in a grocery store. He doesn't know the secret in-lingo of people who go to the store and buy food. His like a cop blathering about marijuana cigarettes.

FactPost@factpostnews.bsky.social

RFK Jr. suggests Americans can more easily afford groceries if they start eating liver instead of beef: "Most of the cheap cuts of meat are very inexpensive. You can buy liver or the cheap cuts."

Roughly 100 percent chance we find out Trump is soliciting bribes from junior staffers in exchange for said pardons

The Washington Sun@washingtonsun.com

New: White House attorneys are evaluating whether to issue mass pardons to junior staffers. https://www.washingtonsun.com/whitehouse/white-house-weighing-mass-pardons-for-junior-staff

JLRay reposted

the UK is just cooked. seems like every boomer there has taken up NIMBY as their retirement hobby because god forbid people have access to affordable groceries

JLRay reposted

TikTok investor Jeff Yass avoided paying $1 billion in taxes while largely escaping public scrutiny. He then poured that money into campaigns to cut taxes and support election deniers. From the ProPublica archives:

propublica.orgMeet the Billionaire and Rising GOP Mega-Donor Who’s Gaming the Tax SystemSusquehanna founder and TikTok investor Jeff Yass has avoided $1 billion in taxes while largely escaping public scrutiny. He’s now pouring his money into campaigns to cut taxes and support election de...

It is useful and illuminating to understand that Republicans do *not* support Russia in the war - they believe Trump supports Ukraine, the side they prefer!

YouGov America@today.yougov.com

NEW Economist/YouGov Oct 19-20: Ukraine % who think Donald Trump sympathizes more with Russia | Ukraine in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine All registered voters 45% | 16% Democrats 72% | 6% Independents 51% | 9% Republicans 14% | 31% yougov.com/en-us/articl...

one of the neighborhood dads got one of the 13' Halloween skeletons and i now have some insight into what would happen if one country in a volatile region was first to a nuclear weapon

JLRay reposted

The moral rot is top-to-bottom in the GOP. But let’s focus on the more specific issue here: Trump and his party like rape. Whether it’s child abuse or campus sexual assault, they think rape is ok. Maybe they even think it’s funny.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "Ramaswamy put up a very powerful Ad about a mother saying that her daughter, Acton, is a liar, and much worse. The Press is trying to get him to 'take down the Ad.' Frankly, anybody whose mother spoke about daughter that way would normally lead to the daughter being precluded from serving"

The latest from YouGov (n ~ 8.7k). If Republicans lose their House majority, do you think Donald Trump should or should not accept the results of the elections? Dems: Should +82 Inds: Should +61 Reps: Should +50 Donald Trump has zero mandate to "steal" an election. yougov.com/en-us/daily-...

In Alliance for Youth Power's battleground state polling, we're finding 18-29 men and young women overwhelmingly favor Democrats. The gender gap has closed at least moderately, in Democrats' favor. allianceforyouthpower.org/yougov-2026/

Santiago Mayer@santiagomayer.com

Today’s NYT poll shows that ***70%*** of voters 18-29 say they are almost certain or very likely to vote. Democrats win them by 44-points. For perspective, 2018 had the highest turnout ever for a midterm. 28% voted and Democrats won them by 35-points.

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But as a reminder - young voters, first-time voters, oters without strong partisan attachments etc - these voters are uniquely persuadable! Not just on who to vote for, but whether to vote or not. It is *never* too late to do persuasion work for young people! allianceforyouthpower.org/yougov-2026/

In Alliance for Youth Power's battleground state polling, we're finding 18-29 men and young women overwhelmingly favor Democrats. The gender gap has closed at least moderately, in Democrats' favor. allianceforyouthpower.org/yougov-2026/

Santiago Mayer@santiagomayer.com

Today’s NYT poll shows that ***70%*** of voters 18-29 say they are almost certain or very likely to vote. Democrats win them by 44-points. For perspective, 2018 had the highest turnout ever for a midterm. 28% voted and Democrats won them by 35-points.

And by the way, among those young people who actually voted for Trump in 2024... he's down to about 65-35 approve-disapprove. Among young people who *voted for him.* Generally, Trump is deeply, deeply underwater among young people.

Dolly Parton's sister is wrong or lying

Aaron Parnas@aaronparnas.bsky.social

Dolly Parton's sister claims voting machines in Tennessee changed her vote to the Republican candidate.

I was glad Dominion got a couple billion out of Fox for lying about election integrity in this country and I'll be glad for anyone made to put up or shut up with this kind of bullshit. Name the voting machine vendor, provide some evidence, and prepare for court if you're serious.

Democrats simply want our republic to work for everyone. Shameful that Republicans so vehemently disagree

ProPublica@propublica.org

NEW: A ProPublica data analysis shows that delays resulting from USPS’ cost-cutting measures have endangered the validity of ballots mailed in rural areas. Counties that voted for Trump in 2024 have been most affected.

JLRay reposted

These guys insist pedophiles are everywhere but somehow no woman has actually ever been a victim of one.

FactPost@factpostnews.bsky.social

Vance whines about the backlash to Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother: "When you're mean to Amy Acton she sics the media and Democratic operatives after you"

Trump ally MBS fucks over gamers once again

Tom Warren@tomwarren.co.uk

EA is shutting down BioWare and early development on the next Mass Effect project is ending 😔

the number of people who want trump to illegally pursue a third term is outnumbered probably 5-to-1 by the number of people who want donald trump to learn what digesting his own teeth feels like

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

CNN on the new CNN poll: "Trump's approval rating is now at 32%, that is a new record low ... you don't want to hit a record low two weeks out from election day"

JLRay reposted

DSA’s national leadership may expel LA’s next mayor, Nithya Raman. She has said Israel is committing genocide in Gaza- but they say Raman is too pro-Zionist to be an acceptable DSA candidate, even though two-thirds of LA DSA members voted to supporter her nathannewman.substack.com/p/dsa-sectar...

nathannewman.substack.comDSA Sectarians in National Office May Expel DSA Member Who Could be LA’s Next MayorWhich Follows DSA Alienating Most Former DSA Members Elected to the US House

JLRay reposted

Oh my GOD

Karen Tumulty@ktumulty.bsky.social

People who have been around politics a long time may be struck as I was by the sheriff's signature on this arrest warrant for Amy Acton's stepfather, who at the time was a fugitive. Does the name James Traficant ring a bell?