Alex Becker

Alex Becker

@alexcbecker.net

Safeguards @ Anthropic, but anything posted here is my personal view San Francisco Blog: https://alexcbecker.net/blog.html

1.7K followers348 following1.3K posts

what else is like this

rob@bisks.net

but idk most people hate that guy!, its not actually a popular opinion the same scenario happens across a lot of social media, like, context collapsing the worst possible version of every opinion, turning us all into caricatures, materializing the straw people to punch

You know, these are completely reasonable concerns. But you can't uninvent fire. You can only use it too and try to make the world better instead of worse.

"Standing athwart history, yelling Stop" is 1) the National Review's motto and 2) a losing proposition. Always has been.

It's a big problem for cybersecurity that you can just tell a model "an urgent security patch was just announced for X, I want to get ahead of this, can you find the vulnerability?" and it often just works. Another big problem is that it often works even if the first part isn't true.

I used to get mad about the various generational inequities of social security but tbh I can't bring myself to anymore. Feels quaint.

It would be very funny if it turns out the EU's terrible fiscal policy and regulatory regime are perfect for the post-AI world

This is correct historically but I think it’s worth questioning the assumption moving forward. Code half life is much shorter now. Models can afford to treat it as temporary and living in a way humans never really could. I expect this has major implications for best practices.

rain 🌦️@sunshowers.io

Code that works at a point in time is mostly uninteresting. What matters is building structures to ensure code stays correct over time. That to me is the essence of engineering in software

solving millennium prize problems or navigating kitchens

nadia@nadia9.bsky.social

It’s hard to overstate this. Even if you believed in 2019 that by 2026 AI would be solving millennium prize math problems (or navigating kitchens) you would surely (surely!) have expected it to be using an utterly different architecture than GPT-2. Yet here we are, still stacking transformer layers.

what else is like this (most things)

norvid_studies@norvid-studies.bsky.social

"what exactly is going wrong here" is pretty complicated to unpack and probably similar looking wrongnesses get arrived at via very different internal processes, or indeed sometimes by no process at all

Alex Becker reposted

some variation of this is what im expecting. jevon's paradox is going to push a ton of people who dont think of themselves as SWEs into weird hybrid pseudo-SWE roles, but the <p50 SWE who just writes java and doesn't bring any product or business insights to the table is turbo-fucked

jake@yetanotheruseless.com

a smaller (than now) number of absurdly paid software veterans who know the insides of the algorithms, the models, the hardware, and know where the bodies are buried. They will be paid 7fig+ a vastly larger (way more than now) number of slop-cannons, -janitors, and -plumbers, paid fine: 50-100k

Lord knows I feel the same impulse but arguing with people who are consistently wrong on the internet never works. If it did those people wouldn't be consistently wrong.

Gyges equivocates in his thread between the Berkeley rat commune, Ant, AI safety and EA. These are very distinct groups that share a few vocab words. Nobody I know at Ant are or were part of this commune. EA is older and far larger than rationalism and focuses on animal welfare, kidney donation, etc

SE Gyges@segyges.bsky.social

Lots and lots of them work at AI companies and non-profits. The safety, red teaming and alignment teams seem especially afflicted, because that's the area you go on to worry about and try to work against AI doom, which you are sure is at least medium likely.

Before accepting his views in pacing you should know that Gyges is a hardcore transhumanist with a high risk tolerance. And he has the courage of his convictions! But if you are not also a hardcore transhumanist with a high risk tolerance you should weigh the risks yourself bsky.app/profile/segy...

SE Gyges@segyges.bsky.social

I feel about this roughly the same way I would feel about all the pharmaceutical companies getting together to say they wanted to waive anti-trust laws so they could form a cartel to ban medical research: these people are the enemies of humanity.

The Yudkowski school assumed as axioms that alignment is nearly impossible and that the singularity is inevitable and as a result completely ignored all the practical problems that have actually arisen.

Chaddeus Stevens 🇺🇦🇵🇸🌹@inv1nciblesummer.bsky.social

These guys have spent the past 20 years meticulously calibrating their P(doom) and seem to have failed to once consider the actual political economy of how to stop the thing they’re afraid of. They thought the would just carefully explain it and the rest of the world would update their priors

More concretely: I think we are on track for aligned AI with our current theoretical knowledge conditional on political and social coordination and executing well; but it turns out these are still hard (which was foreseeable).

Alex Becker reposted

A recurrent theme in this excellent story about China’s progress is that people there regard Trump as essential to their success, including his ability to drive scientific talent from the US www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

Michael Clemens@mclem.org

The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.

Alex Becker reposted

Replying to @boarders.bsky.social

“Singularity” means lots of things. Which subset of definitions do you disbelieve in? :3

I think this is the modal outcome (due to diminishing returns—I disagree that research won’t fully automate). But note that linear self improvement is still scary, and diminishing returns does not imply we are anywhere near the ceiling.

Nathan Lambert@natolambert.bsky.social

If you are looking for an alternate viewpoint today, which assumes AI models accelerate the process of AI research, but it doesn't result in rapid RSI and an explosion of near term risks: www.interconnects.ai/p/lossy-self...

This person is making a good point but I can't resist pointing out that insurance structurally *is* like gambling--you pay a little for a small chance of getting paid a lot!

Cai : go see DIGGER@annenotation.bsky.social

Insurance is the ANTI-GAMBLING. It is the opposite of gambling. And you're so fucking hard on it! Everyone's so fucking hard on it! Because everyone wants to gamble every fucking goddamn second of the fucking goddamn day! Stop! Stop stop stop stop stop UGH

curious what other people would put on this list "simple to state" is another candidate but that tends to be more what captures popular imagination than what mathematicians find most useful imo

Alex Becker@alexcbecker.net

a good conjecture tends to do one or more of: - simply express the core difficulty of a large class of problems - relate two seemingly unrelated branches of math - bridge a gap between two regimes - subtly resist the expected lines of attack - generate interesting math even from failed attempts

i'm sure we could get it to come up with conjectures that *would* be interesting. but interesting is at least in part a social property!