Alex Becker
Alex Becker
@alexcbecker.net
Safeguards @ Anthropic, but anything posted here is my personal view San Francisco Blog: https://alexcbecker.net/blog.html
1.7K followers348 following1.3K posts
Is @jevbot.bsky.social so agreeable because the most common answer to questions in Jev's training data is yes?
I haven't been able to enjoy a video game in a ~year for some reason so I had Opus 5.5 make me a grindy open-world RPG and I've been playing it every day since beknighted.alexcbecker.net
This is correct historically but I think it’s worth questioning the assumption moving forward. Code half life is much shorter now. Models can afford to treat it as temporary and living in a way humans never really could. I expect this has major implications for best practices.
Code that works at a point in time is mostly uninteresting. What matters is building structures to ensure code stays correct over time. That to me is the essence of engineering in software
solving millennium prize problems or navigating kitchens
It’s hard to overstate this. Even if you believed in 2019 that by 2026 AI would be solving millennium prize math problems (or navigating kitchens) you would surely (surely!) have expected it to be using an utterly different architecture than GPT-2. Yet here we are, still stacking transformer layers.
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Alex Becker reposted
some variation of this is what im expecting. jevon's paradox is going to push a ton of people who dont think of themselves as SWEs into weird hybrid pseudo-SWE roles, but the <p50 SWE who just writes java and doesn't bring any product or business insights to the table is turbo-fucked
a smaller (than now) number of absurdly paid software veterans who know the insides of the algorithms, the models, the hardware, and know where the bodies are buried. They will be paid 7fig+ a vastly larger (way more than now) number of slop-cannons, -janitors, and -plumbers, paid fine: 50-100k
Gyges equivocates in his thread between the Berkeley rat commune, Ant, AI safety and EA. These are very distinct groups that share a few vocab words. Nobody I know at Ant are or were part of this commune. EA is older and far larger than rationalism and focuses on animal welfare, kidney donation, etc
Lots and lots of them work at AI companies and non-profits. The safety, red teaming and alignment teams seem especially afflicted, because that's the area you go on to worry about and try to work against AI doom, which you are sure is at least medium likely.
Before accepting his views in pacing you should know that Gyges is a hardcore transhumanist with a high risk tolerance. And he has the courage of his convictions! But if you are not also a hardcore transhumanist with a high risk tolerance you should weigh the risks yourself bsky.app/profile/segy...
I feel about this roughly the same way I would feel about all the pharmaceutical companies getting together to say they wanted to waive anti-trust laws so they could form a cartel to ban medical research: these people are the enemies of humanity.
@pfrazee.com make it so
A retraction would be nice but the lie has been spreading for days. Plus until the day social media platforms get a "Retract" button that blasts everyone who's seen the original post... it won't work.
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The Yudkowski school assumed as axioms that alignment is nearly impossible and that the singularity is inevitable and as a result completely ignored all the practical problems that have actually arisen.
These guys have spent the past 20 years meticulously calibrating their P(doom) and seem to have failed to once consider the actual political economy of how to stop the thing they’re afraid of. They thought the would just carefully explain it and the rest of the world would update their priors
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A recurrent theme in this excellent story about China’s progress is that people there regard Trump as essential to their success, including his ability to drive scientific talent from the US www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.
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I think this is the modal outcome (due to diminishing returns—I disagree that research won’t fully automate). But note that linear self improvement is still scary, and diminishing returns does not imply we are anywhere near the ceiling.
If you are looking for an alternate viewpoint today, which assumes AI models accelerate the process of AI research, but it doesn't result in rapid RSI and an explosion of near term risks: www.interconnects.ai/p/lossy-self...
This person is making a good point but I can't resist pointing out that insurance structurally *is* like gambling--you pay a little for a small chance of getting paid a lot!
Insurance is the ANTI-GAMBLING. It is the opposite of gambling. And you're so fucking hard on it! Everyone's so fucking hard on it! Because everyone wants to gamble every fucking goddamn second of the fucking goddamn day! Stop! Stop stop stop stop stop UGH
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Insurance Commissioner is a hard but important job that demands a serious policy person to deal with a very real crisis that affects nearly every Californian. Do not vote for Jane Kim.
curious what other people would put on this list "simple to state" is another candidate but that tends to be more what captures popular imagination than what mathematicians find most useful imo
a good conjecture tends to do one or more of: - simply express the core difficulty of a large class of problems - relate two seemingly unrelated branches of math - bridge a gap between two regimes - subtly resist the expected lines of attack - generate interesting math even from failed attempts
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