ARRM4

ARRM4

@ar-rm4.bsky.social

Papers...business papers

108 followers48 following312 posts

*Amazon Investing Initial $15 Billion in OpenAI *Amazon: To Invest Another $35 Billion in Coming Months When Certain Conditions Met

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We now have data from Trump's first full year in office. Let's review the performance of Trump and the two parties since 1989 and a new age of globalization began. However you cut the data Trump continues to have worst jobs record of last six Presidents. 1/

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NYC is way too expensive — but some of the best things are free. Earlier this week, I met up with some new friends at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center to watch some qualifying matches. US Open Fan Week runs through Saturday. And it's free.

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Yesterday, California reached a new record for battery output, surpassing 11 GW for the first time. At 7:15 PM, California's grid scale batteries discharged 11.17 GW, meeting 28.2% of grid power demand ⚡️ California is enjoying midday solar power in the evening ☀️

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CPI Hotter reading than expected. US Jan. Consumer Prices Rise 0.5% M/M; Est. +0.3% US Jan. Core CPI Rises 3.3% Y/Y; Est. +3.1% US Jan. Core CPI Rises 0.4% M/M; Est. +0.3% US Jan. Consumer Prices Rise 3.0% Y/Y; Est. +2.9%

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Elder Millennials, now in their mid-40s, out-earn previous generations by more than +20%.* Gen Zs are also off to a good start, earning more than any previous generation.* *on average after controlling for age, adjusting for inflation, and top-coding the highest earners to reduce upward bias.

Per @pkrugman.bsky.social Last month CBO estimated the costs of 10% tariffs. Now Trump is saying 25. Should you just multiply by 2.5? No. Basic economics says the loss from tariffs is nonlinear, to a first approximation the square of the tariff rate. Trump has promised 6x WORSE than CBO analyzed

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Replying to @bencasselman.bsky.social

We tend to focus on the short-term trends, but it's worth taking a step back: Inflation has come down a *lot* from its peak. Headline now down to 3% y/y. Core at 3.5%. Those are still above the Fed's target and prepandemic levels, but it's a radically different story than a year ago.

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The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, measured over 6 mos at an annual rate, has declined from 4.5 to 2.5 over the past 6 months. So, if underlying inflation can fall almost in half without a major rise in unemployment, in what sense was it "underlying"?

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