Arin Dube

Arin Dube

@arindube.bsky.social

Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com

15.7K followers729 following9.8K posts

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Resolution Foundation
@resolutionfoundation.org

Replying to @resolutionfoundation.org

Concluding @arindube.bsky.social says that the US can learn lessons from UK on the benefits of an ambitious minimum wage policy. And the UK can learn from the US on the importance of targeting a tight labour market, which in turn delivers broad-based wage gains.

Arin Dube reposted

Ruth Curtice
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social

Replying to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social

For dessert, I am v excited to host an event with @arindube.bsky.social to discuss his new brilliant book The Wage Standard on Thursday afternoon, where he’ll be discussing how to fix broken labour markets in the UK and US with Professor Steve Machin. www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/fixin...

resolutionfoundation.orgFixing broken labour markets • Resolution FoundationUK launch event for The Wage Standard by Professor Arin Dube

Arin Dube reposted

@Arbeiterkammer
@arbeiterkammer.at

Welche Probleme gibt es am #Arbeitsmarkt und wie lösen wir sie? Darüber sprach heute US-Ökonom @arindube.bsky.social bei einer Veranstaltung der #AK Wien. Was ist deine Meinung? Wie bekämpfen wir die hohe #Arbeitslosigkeit? Was muss getan werden, damit die #Lohnschere nicht weiter aufgeht?

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Very much enjoyed giving this talk at WU Vienna today. Also got to learn more about the Austrian collective bargaining system, as well as about fascinating labor market, inequality, and mobility research being done by so many scholars here.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Very much looking forward to talking about The Wage Standard tomorrow at AK Bildungsgebäude (Austrian Chamber of Labour Education Building). And also discussing the role of sectoral bargaining with Austrian union officials.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Nobody cares what Trump likes to eat for dinner. They care that what they buy, including *their* dinner, costs too much, and that prices are climbing faster than their paychecks. And that's why Trump and his party are about to get a giant thumping at the ballot box.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "Talafreako. He's a vegetarian. My wife corrected me. I was calling it veygan. I know nothing about that. I don't like eating a piece of celery for dinner. I don't like, 'I'll have a piece of lettuce.'"

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Looking forward to giving a seminar Monday at WU Vienna on whether we have reached a turning point on minimum wage employment effects; and on Tuesday giving a talk at the Chamber of Labour on The Wage Standard

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Apropos of today, Alan Manning should get the Nobel for his contributions on imperfect competition in the labor market (aka monopsony). He was an early advocate that moved the discipline. A hugely generative work that has dramatically changed labor economics.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Took my first grad macro class from Bob Hall - at Stanford where I did my undergrad and masters. Pretty sure it was the first time I saw an inter-temporal Euler equation. Good preparation for what was to come where I was going. Missed Mike Woodford at U Chicago. He had just left for Princeton.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

I had not listened to Susan Collins of late, until tonight. She sounds ...terrible. I can't believe she is running for office.

The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com

Democrat Troy Jackson attempted to pierce Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s reputation as an effective senator who steers millions of dollars to Maine in a Tuesday night debate, criticizing her for making life more expensive for Mainers.

washingtonpost.comTakeaways from the Maine Senate debate between Susan Collins, Troy JacksonThe debate in a race for a critical Senate seat featured lots of talk about President Trump, high prices and the war in Iran.

Arin Dube reposted

Magdalena Maad
@magdalenamaad.bsky.social

Veranstaltungsempfehlung für den 20.Oktober um 18:30! Buchpräsentation von @arindube.bsky.social 📖 Meldet euch an, es gibt noch Plätze!

@Arbeiterkammer@arbeiterkammer.at

Seit 20 Jahren erforscht @arindube.bsky.social den #Arbeitsmarkt - vor allem die Auswirkungen von #Mindestlöhnen. Wir freuen uns, dass der renommierte Wirtschaftswissenschafter der @umassamherst.bsky.social am 20. Oktober Gast in der #AK ist und sein Buch "The Wage Standard" vorstellt. 1/2

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Apropos of claims being made on the other site about minimum wage effects on jobs. I encourage you to look at our work on the own-wage elasticity (OWE). Most studies suggest effects that are either positive or small negative, where magnitudes are economically interpretable. 1/

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

It's a fatal conceit to think we can tell a moral and ethical story to bring Americans together today without addressing the economic reality that has failed them too often over the past 50 years. That's the story I tell in The Wage Standard: and what we can do to change it. thewagestandard.com

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Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

It's really ironic that precisely at the moment when Americans mad about affordability are propelling Democrats to take over the House and the Senate, Barack Obama is offering this advice. It's frankly completely out of touch, but also highlights why we are here to begin with.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

It's a fatal conceit to think we can tell a moral and ethical story to bring Americans together today without addressing the economic reality that has failed them too often over the past 50 years. That's the story I tell in The Wage Standard: and what we can do to change it. thewagestandard.com

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Today we have a chance to shape our economic future - both in making sure we have good paying jobs and also make sure we shape the path of technology so it actually helps working people and not a handful of tech company elites.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

This paper by @davidautor.bsky.social & co-authors is one of the most important papers to date in the space of what AI does to learning. It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching. www.nber.org/papers/w35720

nber.orgDoes AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent DraftingFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Arin Dube reposted

Economics for Inclusive Prosperity
@econfip.bsky.social

From EFIP member Arin Dube: "...the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change."

Arin Dube@arindube.bsky.social

Prediction: the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change. Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Prediction: the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change. Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

I am looking forward to giving talks on The Wage Standard in Europe - in Wien, Oxford, London (Resolution Foundation), and Torino (Intl. festival of economics). October will be a busy month! Also exciting is that these talks will include some new findings. Coming soon! 1/

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

A tale of two inequalities. Wage inequality stopped growing circa 2015 and fell especially in post-pandemic period. In contrast, capital income inequality (and wealth inequality) has risen driven by fall in labor share. Inequality has moved from labor to capital income.

Arin Dube reposted

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture. Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture. Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Most US voters would be alarmed if they learned that leading Silicon Valley AI figures: 1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing, 1/

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Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

So in some ways, it's a actually remarkable that the anti-data-center movement reflects an emergent 'wisdom of the crowd' of sorts that seemingly exceeds the information possessed by most voters. 6/6

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Most US voters would be alarmed if they learned that leading Silicon Valley AI figures: 1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing, 1/

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Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Let’s leave aside whether these are remotely correct as predictions. But these really are clearly stated aims: indeed, it's OpenAI's founding mission, Meta named its division Superintelligence Labs, and one lab is literally called Safe Superintelligence Inc. 3/

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Given voters’ stated preferences (72% want to slow AI development), if this information was truly widespread, they'd likely want to tax compute in order to slow scaling. And a natural way to start that is by raising the cost of building new data centers. /4

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

Most US voters would be alarmed if they learned that leading Silicon Valley AI figures: 1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing, 1/

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

2) believe that ASI (artificial superintelligence, or the idea of AI massively exceeding human intelligence) will follow shortly, perhaps even within a year or two of AGI, and that this is what we should actively strive for. 2/

Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social

The hit piece on Acemoglu in The Economist will largely serve, against the seeming intent of the piece, to a downward updating of priors on the magazine, and the named sources it cites.