Armida van Rij

The US is putting a new world order on the table, one based on autocracy, the use of force, and nativism. For the transatlantic relationship, the result has been fusing threats to sovereignty with the promotion of far-right forces that are a threat to democracy, and pushing tech deregulation.

The threat from #Russia is increasing while the US is demanding that Europeans take on the bulk of the continent's conventional defence... developing a European way of war is essential, wrote @armida.bsky.social for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social. buff.ly/HTYTqOP

The whole series is well-worth checking out, with excellent contributions on what Europeanising NATO means for industry, operational planning, immediate response, the Arctic and more. icds.ee/en/category/...

The main gist of my argument is that European allies will face interoperability and integration challenges with less US. To overcome these shortfalls, NATO needs to be prepared to transition rapidly from peacetime to war. If not, slow decision-making by Europeans will cede the advantage to Russia.

SACEUR laid out a 'theory of victory' for NATO at WSF. Yet that theory is still premised on the assumption that US reinforcements will show up when needed and is underpinned by US doctrine. Instead, European NATO should be contingency planning in the event the US *isn't* there.

@icds-tallinn.bsky.social has undertaken the noble task to examine exactly what 'Europeanising NATO' means in practice in a series of policy briefs. In my contribution, I unpacked what a European of war with less US in NATO looks like.

"European NATO will need to shift to a more balanced mix of high-end and low-end capabilities which can be quickly reconstituted." 🔹 Brief X: European Way of War by Armida van Rij @armida.bsky.social

The 2026 midterms will be a consequential moment for American politics, with potential implications around the world. On 10/19, join @armida.bsky.social, Evan Medeiros, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social for a virtual conversation on what's at stake. bit.ly/4hX9wkj

Finally read the new AfD strategy paper on Europe. It casts 2029 as a “historic window” to reorient the EU’s foundations through Treaty change, with a right-wing majority in the EP and a German government with AfD participation both within reach. Thread on some notable points:

Twelve years after the downing of flight MH17, our pursuit of truth, justice and accountability continues. Together with our Australian, Belgian, Malaysian and Ukrainian partners, we remain committed to the victims and their loved ones. ➡️ Our joint statement: www.government.nl/documents/20....

“There is a recognition that we need Germany, in particular, because they have the fiscal headroom and they have the money,” said @armida.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank, noting that France, Italy and the UK are “more constrained”. buff.ly/V2sOWBf

“The kind of 'hallucination' that the tool used by the analyst in this case conjured has not been an isolated incident across the intelligence community since these tools began proliferating across government, according to one of the sources.” edition.cnn.com/2026/09/18/p...

Very interesting research by my colleague @james-r-green.bsky.social on how to use stock market listings to finance innovation - have a read 👇

Absolutely dramatic defeat for CDU and victory for AfD. Main question is: will BSW make it into parliament. Currently AfD is estimated at 39 seats, BSW at 5 (out of 83). AfD majority is unlikely, but still possible.

The @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social is looking for an EU institutions & EU politics fellow to join its research team in Brussels. Please see the #job description and details on how to apply below 👇 Deadline for applications 18/09/26 buff.ly/AbxXqg3

I don't think we've come to terms with how big a project it will be to unwind all these equity positions the US govt is taking under Trump, especially given the degree of corrupt self-dealing among the Trump family involved, which this article points to.

In supporting Europe’s far-right, MAGA and Russia both want the same thing: a weaker EU. Europe must defend itself without abandoning the openness these forces exploit writes @armida.bsky.social for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social. buff.ly/bqIrrgS

📰 | Why MAGA's Far-Right European Ties Will Endure In supporting Europe's far-right, MAGA and Russia both want the same thing: a weaker EU. Europe must defend itself without abandoning the openness these forces exploit, writes Armida van Rij ⤵️ carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

In this piece for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social, I argue far right ideology is here to stay. While political MAGA-European far right relations have cooled, the far right project has institutionalised through which it will continue to undermine liberal democracy. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europeans would be well advised to believe that positions like those of J. Kavanagh & Justin Logan will gain currency with post-Trump administrations regardless of whether Republican or Democrat. And act accordingly working towards taking 🇪🇺defense fully into European hands.

“There's a case, for other countries to make a contribution towards it [#Trident], because it adds to their security as well,” Lord Robertson told @armida.bsky.social in a recent @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social podcast. Listen to the full episode here: buff.ly/jCJqMnw

You heard it here first @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social open.spotify.com/episode/4Vcu... If true and it goes ahead, this would align with the mutual defence clause in the Kensington Treaty.

“Als je Ongehoord Nederland verbiedt dan kan het ondergronds gaan en dan zal het radicaliseren.” Jongens, ze vertonen toespraken van Adolf Hitler. Die radicalisering is al lang gewoon op de NPO gaande. wnl.tv/2026/08/25/m...

I have a piece in WPR today about a peeve I am constantly peeving about here—the U.S’s fundamentally asymmetric view of sovereignty. Hope you find it of interest. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-soveriegn...

According to @armida.bsky.social of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, “[Southeastern Europe] is the soft underbelly of Europe as it is strategically important, hosting a number of NATO bases and key supplies to Ukraine and being on the Black Sea”. buff.ly/fD7389q

Austria is one of the most instructive cases for understanding the far right and the consequences of its normalisation, yet it has received so little international attention.

If there is one podcast episode on UK defence policy that you should all listen to, it's this one:

"The lesson that U.S. rivals are likely to take from the war is that the brilliance of the American military is largely irrelevant."

“The UK’s defence policy is premised on ‘NATO first’, a principle underscored by the 2024 SDR. How do UK defence readiness issues impact the alliance’s defence and deterrence posture?" @armida.bsky.social asked Lord Robertson in the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social podcast. Listen:

⚡️ Ukraine will 'never' join NATO, ex-commander Zaluzhnyi says. "It is impossible for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, given their current level of development, to join an organization that is guided by World War II doctrines," Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.K., Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said.

"Can I ask you for your three pieces of advice to @andyburnham.bsky.social, @rthonwesstreeting.bsky.social, Healey for how to go about building this national conversation on #defence?" @armida.bsky.social asked Lord Robertson in the latest CER podcast. Listen here: buff.ly/jCJqMnw

‘NATO … must also update the way it conceptualizes twenty-first century warfare’, write @jamespattonrogers.bsky.social, Dominika Kunertova, James Wesley Hutto & Elizabeth H. Redmond. Read their #openaccess policy paper as our Editors’ Choice article: https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiag092

Ook Amerikaan @james-r-green.bsky.social van de denktank @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social ziet een ‘economische kans’ voor het Europese blok omdat de concurrentiestrijd tussen de VS en China ertoe leidt dat betaalbare AI breder beschikbaar komt. buff.ly/GDjPsHP

Solidarity is the EU's greatest strength In their haste to capitalize on anti-immigration sentiment, European centre-right politicians have strengthened MAGA/Russian propaganda and undermined the very asset that protects them as a unit

Really enjoyed this conversation with Lord Robertson. Come for the NATO chat, stay for the ideas on funding the UK nuclear deterrent. Ps. If you make it to the end of the episode and wonder what paper Lord Robertson is endorsing, it's this one www.cer.eu/publications...

Really enjoyed this conversation with Lord Robertson. Come for the NATO chat, stay for the ideas on funding the UK nuclear deterrent. Ps. If you make it to the end of the episode and wonder what paper Lord Robertson is endorsing, it's this one www.cer.eu/publications...

How's reindustrialisation going in the US? The country pursuing a mercantilist policy of tariff and trade coercion in order to reindustrialise. Well, badly. Jobs declining in almost every manufacturing sub-sector.

Russia's war on Ukraine is now in its fifth year. @armida.bsky.social spoke to Libby Berry of @global-affairs.bsky.social about where things stand on the battlefield, the prospects for peace, and what Europe can learn from Ukraine.

Last week, @armida.bsky.social gave evidence to UK Parliament's National Security Strategy Joint Committee for its inquiry into deterrence in an age of Russian aggression. Watch here:

📢 #WereHiring: CGD Europe is looking for a Senior Policy Analyst to join our Europe Programme in London. This is an opportunity for an experienced policy professional with expertise in European development cooperation and development finance. Apply by 18 August: https://go.cgdev.org/4vLnACu

Louder for those at the back who still think all male cabinets/boards/panels/anything is acceptable or leads to better outcomes.

Good to sit down with Libby Berry from @global-affairs.bsky.social to discuss where things stand with Russia's war on Ukraine, what the rest of Europe can learn from Ukraine's defence tech ecosystem, and where Ukraine goes from here. Read the interview here: globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...