Brendan Nyhan

Brendan Nyhan

@brendannyhan.bsky.social

Dartmouth political scientist and Bright Line Watch co-director. Previously Upshot NYT / CJR contributor, Spinsanity co-founder, All the President's Spin co-author. https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/ http://brightlinewatch.org

176.7K followers4.4K following11.4K posts

Pinned

Contrary to this op-ed, we don't actually have to give up on papers! New in @chronicle.com How to Assign Research Papers Again Three ways to counter AI and restore confidence in the integrity of student writing www.chronicle.com/article/how-...

Bergotte@twofoldtwilight.bsky.social

purposefully annoying headline, also somewhat annoying piece. I agree that discussion and oral exams are great and good ways for thinking, but it doesn't mean writing is less valuable, just that these are also valuable www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/o...

Reporters covering election confidence and threats to the integrity of the election - our pre-election Bright Line Watch report comes out tomorrow with new expert and public survey data and forecasts of the probability of disruptive events. Email or DM me if you'd like an embargoed copy!

Brendan Nyhan reposted

Replying to @mclem.org

“If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter.” Justice Brett Kavanaugh

Chris Ingraham@cingraham.bsky.social

Kavanaugh stops in action: ICE tackled a non-verbal kid near his school, left him with injuries requiring surgery, and then left the scene when they realized he wasn't the person they were looking for www.independent.com/2026/10/23/i...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

"Guys like Obama don't see it. They don't see dirt, they don't see filth. He doesn't see broken ornaments...The White House, President Obama is a symbol of America. It has to be clean." Feels like the focus on hygiene and cleanliness might be standing in for something here!

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump is BIG MAD about Obama saying the White House now looks like Saddam opened a Cheesecake Factory: "He's not a smart guy. He's not smart at all ... for you to say it's a Cheesecake Factory, that just shows why you were a lousy president"

Marisa Kabas@marisakabas.bsky.social

Beyond disgusted by even more rape allegations against the President of the United States. "In total, more than 25 different women...have independently accused Donald Trump of rape, sexual assault, or other sexual misconduct." Report w/ new details: democrats-judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-su...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

interesting

Jamie Dupree@jamiedupree.bsky.social

Two former Governors of South Carolina - one from each party - have endorsed Democrat Annie Andrews who is running against Sen. Darline Graham R-SC

Brendan Nyhan reposted

I don't know that there is a definitive line to cross that makes you say, "I live in a police state now" but when masked gunmen can routinely brutalize the public, citizen or immigrant alike, with impunity, you have reached that point.

Chris Ingraham@cingraham.bsky.social

Kavanaugh stops in action: ICE tackled a non-verbal kid near his school, left him with injuries requiring surgery, and then left the scene when they realized he wasn't the person they were looking for www.independent.com/2026/10/23/i...

The Article I branch should act to curb lawless behavior and abuses of executive branch authority

Greg Sargent@gregsargent.bsky.social

Around 175 House Dems just called on Trump's DOJ and DHS to end "weaponization of law enforcement" against Rep Ilhan Omar. The letter is signed by numerous ranking committee Dems, showing depth of support for Omar in leadership and signaling how Dem House will act. newrepublic.com/article/2171...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

Replying to @gregsargent.bsky.social

Around 175 House Dems just called on Trump's DOJ and DHS to end "weaponization of law enforcement" against Rep Ilhan Omar. The letter is signed by numerous ranking committee Dems, showing depth of support for Omar in leadership and signaling how Dem House will act. newrepublic.com/article/2171...

The New Yorker@newyorker.com

Donald Trump has tried to purge voter rolls nationwide. Deidre Henderson, the Republican lieutenant governor of Utah, is among the chief election officers standing in his way. www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

The speed with which so many execs cozied up to this authoritarian says more about their revealed preferences than long term strategic thinking. They saw a chance for what they saw as a "business friendly" autocrat and oligarchic consolidation and jumped at it.

Quinta Jurecic@qjurecic.bsky.social

if only there had been a way to predict this might happen based on nearly every midterm election cycle in modern american political history

DOJ "is asking federal courts, before a single result exists, to bless the reasons it might later give for refusing to accept particular outcomes. For lack of a better term, I’ve been calling it preemptive election interference. And it’s as troubling as it is unprecedented."

Steve Vladeck@stevevladeck.bsky.social

“The Department of Justice is putting its formidable thumb on next week’s elections in a way that seems clearly intended to call into question the legitimacy of any result that is especially unfavorable to Republicans—before those results have even come in.” Me on DOJ’s California and Alaska suits:

Brendan Nyhan reposted

In August, President Trump announced he had signed the “biggest oil deal in world history.” ProPublica reviewed the deal and found it gives a small group of people largely handpicked by the Trump administration long-term control of the enterprise.

propublica.orgThe Secret Terms of Trump’s Venezuelan Oil DealThe Trump administration committed the U.S. to taking a large stake in a Venezuelan company, some of whose owners and investors are shielded from public view. The exact details of the agreement over o...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

This is the thing that scares me most about AI - the impossibility of stopping them from communicating with each other. Once the brain in the box gets clever enough, literally any interface with the outside world can become a potential communication vector. That includes us.

Brendan Nyhan@brendannyhan.bsky.social

holy moly openai.com/index/securi...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

No fatalism please. A victory agaibst the odds over an authoritarian.

The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, has conceded defeat in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years protesting his government.

Highly plausible empirical hypothesis; any stronger evidence than over-time correlations?

Karl Jacoby@karl-jacoby.bsky.social

The soaring costs of public universities is a political decision. When these schools predominantly served white students, they tended to be free (UC, CCNY, etc.) But as the number of students of color has increased, funding for the public universities has decreased. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/b...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

Brendan Nyhan reposted

“It’s not only unlawful, but it’s not in the U.S. interest to have Russian technology controlling the commercialization of Arctic gas in the North Slope,” Mr. Riddle said in a brief interview. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

nytimes.comIn U.S. Gas Talks With Kremlin, Hidden Financing for Alaska Project EmergesInterviews and documents show a Russian energy giant secretly funded a U.S. firm. The deal has been discussed in talks to end the war in Ukraine.

Brendan Nyhan reposted

At Angel island, the Chinese immigrants left poems on the walls of the prison to support themselves and motivate others who were later held in its walls.

Brendan Nyhan@brendannyhan.bsky.social

holy moly openai.com/index/securi...

Brendan Nyhan reposted

Setting aside all the other deeply appalling aspects of this ad, it is being aired by a billionaire who would exploit this obviously troubled elderly homeless woman for his political career.

Bill Grueskin@bgrueskin.bsky.social

Donna Arthur — aka Amy Acton’s estranged mother, and the person whose testimony Vivek Ramaswamy devoutly trusts — has been living with her cats, in a car, in a church parking lot, having declined housing assistance. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/24/u...

What a headline. Also, just incredible staff work here. Did Eric Schmitt's staff cast this ad?

Justin Baragona@justinbaragona.bsky.social

"A preliminary breath test displayed a .254 blood alcohol content, three times the .08 legal limit for driving, and a test taken at the jail displayed a .192 level, the affidavit says. She later pleaded guilty to a count of child endangerment..." www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

This is a lawless and dangerous regime and precisely the reason that the Founders created the power of impeachment and removal.

Nathan Newman@nathansnewman.bsky.social

This is literally the end of the rule of law. If a President can pardon people committing crimes on his behalf - and the Supreme Court says he himself can't be prosecuted for crimes committed as part of his job - then the government becomes a lawless entity able to violate our rights without limit.

Brendan Nyhan reposted

This is literally the end of the rule of law. If a President can pardon people committing crimes on his behalf - and the Supreme Court says he himself can't be prosecuted for crimes committed as part of his job - then the government becomes a lawless entity able to violate our rights without limit.

The Washington Sun@washingtonsun.com

New: White House attorneys are evaluating whether to issue mass pardons to junior staffers. https://www.washingtonsun.com/whitehouse/white-house-weighing-mass-pardons-for-junior-staff

Brendan Nyhan reposted

26 papers featuring original experiment data published in SPQ (sociology’s social psych journal) in 2023-25. 6 used pre-registration (despite a near-uniform embrace of “hypothesis testing” language), 8 made data available. Oof.

Brendan Nyhan reposted

Courts are weak. The only reason they have had the success they have in limiting government abuses is because we’ve had leaders who comply in the face of public pressure. Not so today.

Gillian Brockell@gillianbrockell.com

HOLY SHIT. In a sworn statement yesterday, an ICE agent told a federal judge that an ICE flight to Equatorial Guinea had been cancelled and so couldn't be used to bring Ahmed Soliman back to the United States. The plane just landed in Equatorial Guinea. prospect.org/2026/10/23/t...