Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦

@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

Associate professor of economics at the University of Calgary. Former energy trader. blakeshaffer.ca

13.8K followers490 following1.4K posts

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Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

JUST POSTED: A Russian energy giant has secretly moved to acquire a position in a massive Alaska gas project. Its part of talks between Witkoff/Kushner & Putin. But CEO of US company resigns after learning of Russian money in the project. A wowzer of a story. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

nytimes.comIn U.S. Gas Talks With Kremlin, Hidden Financing for Alaska Project EmergesInterviews and documents show a Russian energy giant secretly funded a U.S. firm. The deal has been discussed in talks to end the war in Ukraine.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

"Friend with benefits" remains the best possible title.

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu

Germany, France and at least six other EU countries are pushing against β€œassociate membership” as the name for closer EU ties with Canada, six diplomats involved in the negotiations said.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

Bad men gain power when we don't fight back. Vivek Ramaswamy is everything wrong with politics: arrogance, cruelty, dishonesty, and a willingness to do ANYTHING for power. Ohio deserves better. I'm proud that my wife, MK, is supporting Dr. Amy Acton today.

One day we are going to look back on this period of history and just a collective β€œWTF was that??”

Reuters Pictures@pictures.reuters.com

Lights are reflected off a bulletproof screen as President Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Greenville, North Carolina. More photos of the week: reut.rs/4yGkBNh πŸ“· Evan Vucci

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

A reminder that this is the reason why Danielle Smith is desperate to gerrymander the next provincial election.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

As the count continues, we are getting a clearer picture of the results from Monday's AB referendum: 1. Separation was trounced 2. No real mandate on the heavily pushed Q1-9 Big picture: the Urban-Rural divide Cgy+Edm voted No on all questions Rest of Alberta (combined) voted Yes

As the count continues, we are getting a clearer picture of the results from Monday's AB referendum: 1. Separation was trounced 2. No real mandate on the heavily pushed Q1-9 Big picture: the Urban-Rural divide Cgy+Edm voted No on all questions Rest of Alberta (combined) voted Yes

So just curious for #ableg vote watchers, what happens when the 48 hour deadline passes? We are nearly there and there's still millions of votes left to count. By my projections, two questions are still set to flip from Yes to No. What does the 48 hour deadline even mean if the count isn't done?

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

Over $2,000 in donations now for KidSport! All from fans of a slightly petty website about a Winnipeg goalie not getting paid. πŸ˜… Hellebucks.com

Robson Fletcher@robsonfletcher.com

My hellebucks.com site has spread beyond my wildest expectations, with 700K+ pageviews. With news Hellebuyck's suspension is due to end, I've just updated the site with a new countdown. I also added a donation link for KidSport Manitoba. It has nearly $1,000 in donations already! Thank you, all ❀️

Other than Q5 ("proof of citizenship to vote") and of course Q10 that got walloped, it looks like the end result will be: - a very weak mandate across the immigration Qs, despite the effort and slanted framing that went into boosting them - a clear rejection of most of the constitutional Qs #ableg

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

An update on projected results of the "other" 9 AB referendum Q's: Q6 flipped to No overnight, as expected. ** It still looks like all 4 "constitutional" questions will end up No ** The reason: most of the mail-in ballots are yet to be counted there. Those that have are 75% No.

An update on projected results of the "other" 9 AB referendum Q's: Q6 flipped to No overnight, as expected. ** It still looks like all 4 "constitutional" questions will end up No ** The reason: most of the mail-in ballots are yet to be counted there. Those that have are 75% No.

Premier Smith was deliberately cautious when speaking about the outcomes of Questions 6-9. And rightly so. With roughly 500k mail in ballots yet to be counted for each, and with those swinging hard No on other Q’s, I expect these Qs to fail.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

New approach. Here i take the # of votes remaining by each voting method (elxn day, advanced, mail-in, mobile) and used their % Yes share from votes cast to get a projected outcome. Because so many mail-in ballots are remaining and their %Yes is low, this flips Q6-9 to No and tightens Q1-5.

New approach. Here i take the # of votes remaining by each voting method (elxn day, advanced, mail-in, mobile) and used their % Yes share from votes cast to get a projected outcome. Because so many mail-in ballots are remaining and their %Yes is low, this flips Q6-9 to No and tightens Q1-5.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

This is a *very* speculative projection I took Q10 counts to get expected total votes and figure out how many remain for each riding and vote method for Q1-9. I then project how remaining votes will go based on Q10 riding x method fit. Given so many mail-in ballots remain, i get Q6-9 flipping No

This is a *very* speculative projection I took Q10 counts to get expected total votes and figure out how many remain for each riding and vote method for Q1-9. I then project how remaining votes will go based on Q10 riding x method fit. Given so many mail-in ballots remain, i get Q6-9 flipping No

For #ABref watchers, it's worth noting that the non-separation questions remain far from settled. The special ballots (mail-in) have largely not yet been counted for Q's 1-9 (they counted Q10 first). Given how big the "remain" share was for special ballots, expect a swing towards No on some Qs.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

If you remember the Alberta referendum results being delayed last night for voting in Lavern Community Hall (in Cardston-Siksika): the vote there ended up being 307-6 (98%) in favour of Option 1.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

I will say the rank cynicism of Smith demanding more provincial control over immigration when she was one of the premiers who begged for higher immigration targets just over 2 years ago is a lot to take. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

cbc.caFederal immigration limits undercutting Alberta's economy, premier says in letter to Trudeau | CBC NewsAlberta Premier Danielle Smith is asking the federal government to lift immigration limits because it is undercutting the province's ability to fill jobs, grow the economy and aid those fleeing violen...
Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

more results on all questions coming in for the AB referendum. Provincial control on immigration and proof of citizenship to vote is proving popular. Opt-ing out of federal programs and federal judge selection is not. Separation is resoundingly being rejected. πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

Replying to @blakeshaffer.bsky.social

Consider the irony associated with the namesakes: Manning to remain and Notley to leave πŸ€”

We are two solitudes: the Urban/Rural divide Other than Q5 (proof of citizenship to vote) and Q10 (separation) the votes in yesterday's referendum split across the urban/rural divide. (Note: still lots of counting to do, especially for Qs 1-9)

Interesting breakdown. Vote split by voting type. Remain were motivated to vote early with mail-in (special ballots) and avoid the polling station headaches (which, surprisingly, were few). 91% remain there. Election day is tighter. Could mean we tighten a bit as vote count rises.

Updating. Made it clearer which side of the vote is winning with some colour shading. The senate question swung Yes, but it's still early on those counts.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦@blakeshaffer.bsky.social

more results on all questions coming in for the AB referendum. Provincial control on immigration and proof of citizenship to vote is proving popular. Opt-ing out of federal programs and federal judge selection is not. Separation is resoundingly being rejected. πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦

Separation was never broadly popular here. This was a case of a leader needing to placate their party's base. And it likely won't even do that.

Justin Ling@justinling.ca

CTV has made the (pretty easy) call: Alberta has voted not to hold an independence referendum. With a bit less than half of the vote counted, it's 77% in favour of remain.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

CTV has made the (pretty easy) call: Alberta has voted not to hold an independence referendum. With a bit less than half of the vote counted, it's 77% in favour of remain.

more results on all questions coming in for the AB referendum. Provincial control on immigration and proof of citizenship to vote is proving popular. Opt-ing out of federal programs and federal judge selection is not. Separation is resoundingly being rejected. πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

Most of the coverage tonight has been a relitigation of Alberta’s grievances. Talking to separatists whining about Trudeau, panelists whining about Trudeau…and nobody ever really trying to introduce facts to their feelings. Pathetic.

Max Fawcett@maxfawcett.bsky.social

You don't have to do this, @cbcradiocanada.bsky.social. It's a choice. They want to defund you. They think you're a propaganda arm of an evil government. You will never win them over by showing them grace when they show absolutely none towards you.

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

Chrystia Freeland: "The biggest mistake foreign leaders and a lot of Americans made was to try to appease Donald Trump and to capitulate to unacceptable actions. What we've seen from Trump and you see it from all bullies, giving in just encourages the guy to come back for more the next day."

Blake Shaffer πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ reposted

Replying to @peark.es

I don't think most Americans are even capable of understanding how stupid and tone deaf this is from Schiff.