Christopher Carman

Scottish Election Analysis 2026: The Campaign, Voters and Policies Immediate thoughts, reflections and early research insights on the 2026 election from leading scholars in Scottish politics, elections, media and policy. @uofgsps.bsky.social @pjdelacour.bsky.social www.electionanalysis.uk

@cjcarman.bsky.social

Well, THAT was quite an election result for Scotland! Whether you're 🤩, 😧, or 🤷‍♂️, the next question is: what does it actually mean? Join @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @merylkenny.bsky.social @profnicolamcewen.bsky.social 19 May, 6PM @glasgow.ac.uk in-person&online www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/after-the-...

A sensitive topic: As #Scotland extends the right to serve in parliament to resident non-citizens: what do Scots think about political rights for resident non-citizens? We asked in our Oct 2025 SCOOP Our @scotvoting.bsky.social data offers a starting point: scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/09/e...

🗳️ The votes are in. Now the real analysis begins. Join Stevenson Trust on 19 May for a lively roundtable discussion w/: @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @merylkenny.bsky.social @profnicolamcewen.bsky.social University of Glasgow, 6PM details & sign up 👇 www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/after-the-... #SP26

This is a mistake. Whatever you think of Reform policies, you have to recognise that lots of people in Scotland voted for them. A responsible governing party should seek to constructively engage across society - even with those with whom we (strongly) disagree.

Now that the #ScottishParliament votes have been counted, what next? Watch Allan Campbell's (Head of Operations, SP) Stevenson Trust lecture on how the SP will induct the new MSPs - fascinating on how the Parliament, as an institution, makes democracy work! #SP26 www.youtube.com/live/kTr_2Eg...

Are Scots learning to game AMS? Tactical voting rose from 8% in 2011 → 20% in 2021. A third of split-ticket voters in 2021 said they were doing it explicitly to stop another party. 2026 looks even more complex - see our latest @scotvoting.bsky.social blog: scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/05/05/d...

Scotland votes tomorrow with two ballot papers. How many voters actually understand how both work — and how many are learning to vote tactically? SES data has answers! 🗳️ @scotvoting.bsky.social scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/05/05/d...

As Scots go to the polls tomorrow, there's no better place to look for comparisons of the parties' manifesto pledges on the key policy issues facing the next Scottish Parliament than @uofgpolicy.bsky.social's manifestos analysis grid:

#Scotland votes in 7 days. We asked Scots how worried they are about deepfakes, AI fake news & dark money in the election. Turns out: very. New blog post from @scotvoting.bsky.social 👇 scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/30/fake-news-real-concern-deepfakes-ai-and-scotlands-election/

Four weeks to go! 🗳️ We'll be publishing analysis on our blog every Thurs + Tues, looking at data beyond the immediate horse-race 🏇📊 First up, @cjcarman.bsky.social on what Scots think about changes to voting rights in recent years! scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/09/e...

16 days until Scotland votes. Tonight Prof Sir John Curtice explains what the polls are really telling us — and what a transformed Holyrood would mean. Free. 6pm. Glasgow and online. 🎟️ eventbrite.co.uk/e/a-parliament-transformed-making-sense-of-scotlands-election-tickets-1737347355709

Scotland votes May 7th. Deepfakes, AI slop & disinformation are already in play. 7 April, 6PM, Join Sam Hartley from @electoralcommission.org.uk at @glasgow.ac.uk for a free public lecture on what's real & what's not and how we protect elections. 🗳️ www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/real-or-fa...

4 Nov, 6PM Dewar Memorial Lecture @uofglasgow.bsky.social will be delivered by David McGill, Clerk & CEO of the @parliament.scot. David will reflect on the Parliament's past 26 years - and how it will face future challenges. Free and open to the public. tix here: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/reflection...

With President Donald John Trump announcing the dates for his upcoming trip to #Scotland, we at @scotvoting.bsky.social look at how popular #POTUS is in Scotland. Turns out DJT might find the Scottish summer to be a bit chilly, and that isn't just the weather!

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join @scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

Looking for something to do at 17:30 Friday afternoon at the @scottishlabour.bsky.social conference? @scotvoting.bsky.social Scottish Election Study team will be holding a fringe event looking at our data on Scottish Labour Voters (past & future). W/ @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & Fraser McMillan

The next Stevenson Trust lecture features Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social) on how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy. 🌎 Taking place on 4 March and open to all. Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt

📢Join us for the next Stevenson Trust lecture with Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social). They will explore how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy over the next 2-3 years. Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt.

We are very excited to be hosting this event @uofglasgow.bsky.social on 10 Feb, 6pm, recognising 25 years of achievements by the Scottish Youth Parliament @officialsyp.bsky.social Pls join us - free & open to all members of the public, both young and not-so-young Register here: lnkd.in/e-9aQxaV

This is an interesting study on the relationship between economic inequality and democratic erosion: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Overall, certainly something worth pondering.

A fascinating discussion from @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt from tonight's Stevenson Trust lecture. They discussed Trumps campaign and what the next four years of his presidency may mean for the US and the rest of the world

The next Stevenson Trust Lecture takes place this Wednesday from 6- 7:30 on the US Election. @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt will discuss Trump's Campaign and what can be expected over the next 4 years. Don't miss out register here: tinyurl.com/mr2rvsrp.

Interested in Scottish voting data? Follow Scottish Election Study team at account below Or individually: @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social @jaclarner.bsky.social @chanret.bsky.social @martamiori.bsky.social (Fraser's arriving soon)

has anyone told RFKJr where his soon-to-be boss prefers to dine? (and cook french fries)

OPINION TODAY Trump's new administration and the election's aftermath | What Trump supporters believe and expect | How Resilient Is the Emerging Trump Coalition? | Drop in Death Penalty Support Led by Younger Generations | The 2026 race for CA governor ... & more: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241114

we know that partisanship now drives economic and social policy perceptions in the US - but this graph is striking. I just told a class that right after Trump's inauguration we'd see a shift in economic evaluations... it only took days after the election! graph frm www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b...

Last week at my @UofGlasgow @StevensonTrust lecture on the US POTUS election I said/joked I was waiting for a news report saying that the Amish in PA were going to be the crucial voting group in the state. #nailedit #LancasterPA #youknowyouarefromLancasterwhen

Interesting that even with all the Trump supporting “whales” who have thrown money into the various “election markets”, Trump has dropped 10 pts in Polymarket in this past week

“A republic, if you can keep it.” Benjamin Franklin’s response to the question, “Well Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” on the day the Constitutional Convention delegates signed their draft.

Counties already denying certification of elections across the US. THIS is rather concerning and points to the US election system ending up in uncharted territory. #electiondenialism #USelection2024 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Pls join us on 29 Oct, 6PM in @uofglasow KELVIN GALLERY (in the Gilbert Scott Bldg) for discussion of the upcoming US Elections with @UofGSPS's @cjcarman.bsky.social. What are polls telling us? What can we expect in the last week before the election? register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-us-pre...

As what constitutes “fascism” seems to be a topic of conversation at the moment, let’s look at the definition of the term in the Oxford Dictionary of Politics (2009, 3rd ed pg193). #fascist #fascism #polisci #2024

The long and short of all this is that elevated indy support sustained the SNP long after 2014, powering them to a series of victories at all levels of government. But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.

We also know it changed people's constitutional preferences, with young people in particular much more supportive than before - although they were always the group most favourably disposed to "devo max". The binary choice presented in 2014 forced people to pick a side.

It similarly altered how people felt about Scotland, believing it had become a more engaged political space. Yes voters were initially more convinced of this, but No voters soon changed their minds. This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️

We also know that the referendum changed how people engaged with politics. A lot of people joined the pro-indy parties after the referendum. At peak, one in 24 Scots belonged to a political party vs one in 125 in the UK as a whole 🪧⬇️

Meanwhile, changes in Conservative support were more gradual. This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵

The referendum pushed voters out to the poles of the constitutional debate. This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯

We also saw greater consistency between Westminster and Holyrood preferences, moving away from patterns early on in the devolution era. This graph shows differences in parties' constituency vote shares at Westminster and Holyrood elections.

We know the referendum changed voting behaviour with... Firstly, greater consistency between independence preferences and party preferences 🗳️🤝 2010 > 2015 general election vote choice among Yes voters on the left, No voters on the right.

To mark ten years since the independence referendum we're collating some nice SES data and launching our account Over Here! Hello Bluesky 🦋 Did the indyref change Scotland? As you might expect from the title of our book based on SES and Scottish Referendum Study data, the answer is yes! But how?

Is there a candidate Americans (sort of) like? Harris (just barely) tips into net positive approval rating while Trump remains flat in the negative territory #US2024 #POTUSelection www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

10 years following the #Scotland #IndyRef instead of looking to the somewhat revisionist accounts, why not have a look at clear academic analysis of The Referendum that Changed a Nation 2014-2019 from the Scottish Election Team www.amazon.co.uk/Referendum-t...

*checks calendar* yes, it IS still AUGUST… and the grocery store has 2024 Advent Calendars on sale!!! WTF!!! #christmastooearly #itisonlyaugust #santastillneedshisrest #theelvesarestillmakingtgetoys

People ask why Trump is running again… here is just one potential reason

This has received less attention than it should, because the overall result was in line with expectations. But in a closer contest an error of this scale would be enough to deliver a surprise outcome (as it did in 1992 & 2015) - something to remember if polls are narrower ahead of the next election