Rob Ford

New Year, new election book, new discount code! "The British General Election of 2024" is now available to buy, and if you order direct from the publisher's website, you can claim a 20% discount by entering the code PALAUT - here's the link to the book page: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

The Red Wall is a myth, a spook story that British politicians must worship at the altar of: do what I tell you or the Red Wall will get you. It is made up. It has long since lost contact with its original definition. It encourages people to confuse places and people. It is past its sell by date.

Charging for things is so so so so underrated

Well at least Ineos is doing well.

A weird change that has taken place in my lifetime is that in the past, British racists were aware of what mixed-race people were and were furious about it, as opposed to the New Racism, which frequently seems actively confused by the birds and the bees.

"Of all the books I have ever reviewed that purported to offer a serious thesis, this is without question the most deranged."

💯The case for democracy is not that voters are always right, or wise, or good. It's that they can correct their mistakes. That's why it's so dangerous to have billionaires controlling the media or regulating the flow of information. It shuts down the immune system of democracy.

Calling an early election when you don't need to issues: -looks opportunistic and cynical -means the election gets framed around your record -Galvanises opposition into unity if none existed before -Lack time to properly define your opponents

The number of times I've seen calling an unnecessary early election backfire at this point has gotten me all

Attitudes in 2026 to free movement, to secure single market membership General public: 48-30 support (+18) Labour: 67-20 support (+47) LibDems: 65-21 support (+44) Green 64-20 support (+44) Conservatives 47-40 support (+7) (!) Reform: 39-46 opposed (-7) @britishfuture.bsky.social June 2026

The case for reforming the Westminster voting system has strengthened in recent years. It may now plausibly happen. @robfordmancs.bsky.social tells us about the necessary conditions for reform to take place. thepoliticalquarterly.substack.com/p/has-the-mo...

...to where they were at the 2024 General Election? Not quite yet.

I expect the OBR will bring net migration forecsst down from a 235k average. I guess they will keep it higher than it is in reality, eg 135-150k, to keep the fiscal hit closer to £7bn than £14 billion. It may head up to 100k (but not if gvt does not uturn & soften on ILR)

We will find out next month that net migration was below 75,000 (year to June 2026) when Home Sec was still telling Commons in Feb 2026 it was comfortably above 200k 171k figure for 2025 was not yet out but was obvs going well below the 205k for year to June 2025 she used bsky.app/profile/sund...

I feel media will notice the fall in net migration when stat on 27/11/26 is lowest since 1997! Its already a fact, not a prediction, that net migration in 2026 lowest this century I am predicting Nov 27th ONS headline stat will confirm [year to June 2026] but public visa data already entails this.

I remain concerned that ministers have seened unaware that they have eliminated net migration (saying it is still high in parliament) & that few ministers seem aware that 250k people who are not care workers - such as vets, chefs & architects - risk a loss of legal status under the "15 year" policy

Net migration was 171,000 for 2025 but visas were falling sharply & have kept doing so. Expect it to fall below 75,000 for July 2025 - June 2026 in November data, then zero for 2026 (announced May 2027) James has had vg modeling and predictions: his prediction is 50k bsky.app/profile/jame...

What does Kemi Badenoch think the level of immigration should be? Is everybody in the media & politics going to act surprised when the year to June 2026 statistic (on Nov 26th) falls below net 100k for first time this century Best estimate of net migration *now* (4th Q 2026) is zero, or negative

In defence of Manchester’s Abu Dhabi deals: @mikeemmerich.bsky.social - a close ally of Sir Howard Bernstein and his upcoming biographer - writes a big essay for us, alleging that the city's critics are rewriting history. Among those criticised: The Mill... manchestermill.co.uk/in-defence-o...

"The one remaining argument for sticking with Brexit is that any attempt to reverse the referendum would be fundamentally undemocratic. The people spoke; their verdict stands. That is true only if the votes of the dead still count." #ThatsWhatICallPuttingItBluntly

Look after the little things and the big things will look after themselves. They won't of course, but the public may well get behind the big things if they know the government is on their side on the little things.

Yep. Alas, response to this politics is often “why can’t they do anything really important?” And when they do big things, it’s all “but what about things that matter to me?” People are forever moaning about parking. The PM is doing something about it. And govt *can do more than one thing at once*

Absolutely, an open goal. I'm a debt adviser and the latest stats are 43% of ccjs in Eng and Wales last year were for under £500. Parking CCJs are typically £270-£330. There's an epidemic of credit ratings ruined by parking mistakes and the public hate the companies.

The future of government is TikToks of Martin Lewis pointing at things we don’t like, and Andy Burnham vapourising them.

People will mock this as small beer politics but predatory behaviour by parking companies has been a major source of frustration and financial cost for millions, and for many years.

Entirely correct from @miattafahnbulleh.bsky.social. If you genuinely care about integration/cohesion, making it difficult/impossible for people who came here legally to settle/become citizen is insane. I argued this in evidence to Home Affairs Committee: committees.parliament.uk/writtenevide...

Serious allegations about sexual harassment towards colleagues in the workplace by Reform Mayor Luke Campbell are being investigated by the police. The party ethos & culture towards women also a theme of the ITV investigation

Producer: “Who can we get to represent the views of voters in struggling working class towns?” Researcher: “How about a London born privately educated banjo player who is the son of the billionaire who owns GB News?” Producer: “Perfect!”

The decline of Newsnight, at a time when we need detailed and decent investigative and foreign reporting more than ever, is so depressing. Marshall is more than an ex singer. He’s Paul Marshall’s son - of GB News, Unherd, Speccie - & is on ARC Forum advisory board

Three noteable trends here: 14 point Reform to Labour swing, Restore vote much larger than Labour’s margin of victory, large Con vote clearly unwilling to tactically vote Reform on seat latter was defending

No joke. I think this is the most important video I have ever seen about mobile games. This guy breaks down how this game psychologically profiles you, and makes the game harder or easier in order to show you ads

Absolutely dying laughing at 'heavily medicated' at the time. Yeah, I remember when I hurt my arm and was on codeine, I too started seeing secret Muslims whenever I looked at the Royal Family.