David Shor

Just to update this chart: 1 - AI salience has increased dramatically in the past week - increasing as much in the last week as the previous year combined

2 - 80% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI will cause widespread job loss in the five to ten years 3- 64% of voters think it's either very or somewhat likely that AI could pose a threat to humanity's survival

We cross-referenced the psychometric personality data of ~ 1 million people with their zodiac astrological signs: 1) There is a small but statistically significant effect of zodiac sign on personality controlling for demographic and attitudinal variables

Zodiac effects among people who never read horoscopes are a quite precisely estimated zero, while effects among people who read horoscopes everyday are on the order of 0.2 sds - on par with or larger than most psychometric associations found in social science

We cross-referenced the psychometric personality data of ~ 1 million people with their zodiac astrological signs: 1) There is a small but statistically significant effect of zodiac sign on personality controlling for demographic and attitudinal variables

2) These observed personality correlations correspond strongly with LLM-generated "stereotypes" of astrological associations with personality These associations survive permutation testing as well as a variety of smooth seasonal time controls.

America's Jewish neighborhoods - both Hasidic and non-Hasidic - are trending fast toward Republicans while similar non-Jewish precincts matched on demographics like education and income have trended toward the Democrats

One of the hardest problems in politics is that people who are capable eloquently organize their thoughts and perspectives in writing are really weird and unrepresentative! This is true between groups but also is even more true *within* groups

We conducted a bunch of polling on the red-blue button dilemma. Highlights: 1) Blue beats red by a 3:1 margin 2) Red button pushers report being less empathetic and higher frequency of anti-social behavior 3) Red button pushers are more supportive of Luigi Mangione controlling for ideology

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI! AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

When we tested videos on these themes, AI-specific populism - messages that address the future impact of AI in bold, populist terms - performed at the top compared with every other topic we've tested in moving voters toward Democrats.

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI! AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

Even among Trump voters, helping workers who lose jobs to AI beats giving tech companies incentives to keep innovating 50% to 24%. Overall it's 58-20.

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI! AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

Voters are extremely concerned about the impact of AI: 79% are concerned the government doesn't have a plan to protect workers from AI job losses. 77% are concerned about industries being eliminated. 56% are worried about personally losing their job.

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI! AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2). Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him. No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.

Some fun tidbits here to see how much more likely Danish people are to say they think their country is heading in the right direction and that they trust the media, though some similar pessimistic economic outlooks we’re seeing here.

Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS Check it out! bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...

There is a hunger from the public for radicalism on costs - even policies like wide-ranging price and rent controls poll well nationally right now. That doesn't mean Democrats should embrace unworkable policies, but they have to meet the moment and embrace boldness on costs

Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS Check it out! bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...

Cost of living is the #1 issue for every subgroup of voters imaginable - young people, people of color, women - *except* for the ~ 1% of the population that has donated to a Democratic campaign in the last year

Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat. These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.