Michael McDonald

I'm so confused. I thought we won and renamed Iran "Trump"

CBS deleted this post and reposted it admitting that their original one was misleading. And the misleading post from CBS was intentionally misleading, not an innocent mistake. CBS continues to lose credibility.

The Department of Justice on Wednesday told Washington state officials to segregate ballots from 400 people who it claimed were noncitizens registered to vote.

93% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 approved of Trump’s job as president at the start of his second term. Now, 57% say this.

Obama could have finished Trump if he had said the Cheesecake Factory's server is named Natalie

#earlyvote morning update 10/27: at least 32 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

I would like to report the owner of Mar-a-Lago who signed an oath under penalty of felony perjury that the White House was his *Florida* voter registration residence Oh wait, he has to be arrested and convicted. darn

It’s just so appalling and enraging how casual and commonplace this has become. I’m out of words.

It's worth repeating and amplifying this.

This report is genuinely overwhelming, in terms of the evidence both against Trump and of a ham-fisted cover-up. Including one instance in which Ghislaine Maxwell was actually about to mention one of Trump's young accusers and Todd Blanche told her to stop talking. The media response is "yawn."

I know there's a lot going on but I feel it should probably be more of an above-the-fold story that members of Congress released a thoroughly documented report directly accusing the president of the United States of being a serial rapist.

#earlyvote evening update 10/26: at least 31 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

Also Trump: everyone gets a check for whatever I say today that they get a check for

In case facts still matter

NEW: The group behind Cornel West's 2024 ballot push was wholly funded through Elon Musk's dark money network, according to Sludge's review of tax documents. readsludge.com/2026/10/26/m...

#earlyvote midday update 10/26: at least 30 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

WashPost with the inside scoop

That this is in THE WASHINGTON POST is almost too much irony to bear.

#earlyvote morning update 10/26: at least 29 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

I am aware many campaigns use the early voting dashboard, even if the usual suspect pundits who have poll average products to sell disparage early voting

As of yesterday, Florida Democrats exceeded their 2022 early vote performance. A law change made it more difficult to request mail ballots, and Democrats have now made up their mail deficit. Unaffiliated voters have, too. But not Republicans yet michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/florida-ea...

I didn't know Trump was only playing the role of the ugly American

In his acceptance speech, Lula says he will work to regulate digital platforms in Brazil. “Digital crimes must be dealt with like real-life crimes.” This comes after Meta directly interfered with the Brazilian elections, favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.

Betting markets reliably predict the house wins 100% of the time via arbitrage on the suckers that use them

You be the judge. Which ballot is more confusing? The courts said too bad about the one on the right, btw

#earlyvote evening update 10/25: at least 28 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

In the mad rush of data crunching I forgot to post a Maine update last Friday. Here it is belatedly. Maine looks a lot like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska. Early turnout is up, most for registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters, but also for Republicans michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/maine-earl...

A reporter asked to respond to Nate Silver attacking early voting, and here it is: I don't care. The dashboard has >1 million page views. I've lost count of the media orgs redistributing my data. My substack is blowing up. We're close to Election Day so there is no new info to learn from polls

The crime happens if a Democrat is elected. Anywhere

#earlyvote morning update 10/25: at least 27 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

Trump: The exit fee from this auditorium is your life savings paid in Trump Coin <audience cheers wildly>

Honestly shocked McLaughlin didn't engineer a poll showing Hilton leading

Even at the time I said that Republican gerrymanders were not enough, and may even backfire. The doomsayers overstated the effects by using the 2024 election as the baseline, which was and is silly. 2024 is probably the absolute best Republicans can do