Ence Morse

Ence Morse

@ence.bsky.social

data & politics @washingtonpost.com texan in dc 🕯️

4.2K followers361 following181 posts

Ence Morse reposted

Republican campaigns and PACs have spent nearly $3 million at President Trump’s businesses since he returned to office, according to a Post analysis. Spending at Mar-a-Lago has more than tripled compared with the same period of his first term.

washingtonpost.comTrump’s D.C. hotel is gone. Republicans still pay millions to his businesses.Republican campaigns, party committees and PACs have spent nearly $3 million at Trump businesses since his return to office, a Post analysis finds.

Ence Morse reposted

left: In May, Thomas J. Henry, the personal injury attorney whose ads blanket Texas, giving a pro-Paxton super PAC $650K. right: late yesterday, Thomas J. Henry publicly endorsing Talarico

It's the pre-general filing day! First: more crypto money is coming in to help Republicans. America First Digital put another $1.5 million into First Principles Digital, the pro-crypto GOP group, which is backing Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Ence Morse reposted

NEW: Democrats have spent at least $1.8 million on ads that invoke Trump’s ballroom project, according to a Post analysis of spending in competitive general election races. Read more of the analysis from @lukejconnors.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

washingtonpost.comDemocrats’ campaign ads increasingly hit Trump construction projectsAt least $1.8 million in Democratic ads have invoked Trump’s ballroom and other projects.

Ence Morse reposted

President Trump’s flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc., had about $164 million remaining last week after spending $277 million to boost Republicans in midterm races, according to the latest federal campaign financial disclosures.

washingtonpost.comTrump super PAC pumps $277 million into midtermsPresident Donald Trump's flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc., has spent about $34 million running attack ads targeting James Talarico of Texas and other Democratic candidates.

Ence Morse reposted

Ence Morse reposted

NEW: Last year, the White House told Texas to redraw its congressional map to create five new GOP seats. Now the plan may be backfiring. If voting patterns in South Texas this year look more like the 2018 or 2020 elections, these Trump+10 districts begin looking deep blue. 🎁 link: wapo.st/483AFxs

just amazing quotes from the guy who drew the Texas maps via @jherrerx.bsky.social. in South TX some of these counties split by 30+ points!

Washington Post Data Team@wpdatateam.bsky.social

Lots of voters in South Texas split their tickets, which has made these maps — which were not drawn using House-level voting data, just statewide races — especially problematic. Read the piece from @jherrerx.bsky.social and @ence.bsky.social here: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Another one of these just came in off the monthly deadline. Here's Affordable Chicago Now!, which spent $4.5 million, sending the last of its cash to the same AIPAC super PAC.

Ence Morse@ence.bsky.social

Anyone remember Chicago Progressive Partnership, the shell group that spent big to back pro-Israel candidates in Illinois Dem primaries? It just closed up... and transferred its bank balance back to AIPAC's super PAC.

Read lots more about Musk, and the other biggest donors, here: www.washingtonpost.com/elections/in...

washingtonpost.comElon Musk leads the megadonors pumping $2.3 billion into midterm electionsBillionaires and Elon Musk, who recently temporarily achieved trillionaire status, make up the top individual donors.
Ence Morse@ence.bsky.social

Elon Musk is now officially the biggest-ever disclosed midterm donor. Here's where the $$ went: Before tonight - $91 million to back Republicans. Tonight's filings - $158 million to SLF PAC to back Ken Paxton, plus $88 million to his America PAC TOTAL SO FAR: $337 million. & more coming tonight.

Top donors to the pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising super PAC: - Chris Larsen (Ripple) $1.25M - Susan Sarofim $1.2M - Reed Hastings (Netflix) $1M - Rory Gates $1M - John Pritzker $650K Total raise: about $9.6 million

Exponential fundraising gaps so far tonight: - In Kansas, Adam Hamilton (D) raised $9.8M; incumbent Roger Marshall (R) brought in $870K - In Georgia, Jon Ossoff (D) raised $33M; Mike Collins (R) took in just $2.7M

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton raised 10 times as much as GOP incumbent Roger Marshall did ($9.8M vs $870K)

Ence Morse@ence.bsky.social

Dem Senate candidates really are raising a lot of money in Q3, many times more than their GOP opponents: - Ossoff: $33M (vs $2.8M for Collins) - El-Sayed: $33M (vs $10M for Rogers) - Jackson: $20M (vs $5.2M for Collins) - Peltola: $16M (vs $2.6M for Sullivan) - TX, KS, IA coming soon

Ence Morse reposted

Dem Senate candidates really are raising a lot of money in Q3, many times more than their GOP opponents: - Ossoff: $33M (vs $2.8M for Collins) - El-Sayed: $33M (vs $10M for Rogers) - Jackson: $20M (vs $5.2M for Collins) - Peltola: $16M (vs $2.6M for Sullivan) - TX, KS, IA coming soon

Ence Morse reposted

The first school shooting I wrote about happened 10 years and 17 days ago. First-graders on a playground. Shooter was 14. It lasted 12 seconds. One child died. It faded from front pages by week's end. Those kids and teachers, their families, that town. They're not over it. They'll never be over it.

Elon Musk is now officially the biggest-ever disclosed midterm donor. Here's where the $$ went: Before tonight - $91 million to back Republicans. Tonight's filings - $158 million to SLF PAC to back Ken Paxton, plus $88 million to his America PAC TOTAL SO FAR: $337 million. & more coming tonight.

some asterisks: - these totals don't include giving to 527s like the RGA/DGA -- Musk (along w/ others!) has given millions more there - also doesn't count investments in state races - also doesn't count self-funders (remember Bloomberg's $1B pres run?)

The George Soros-backed Democracy PACs (Democracies PAC?) were still sitting on the vast majority of their money as of September 31. With a month to go, Democracy PAC II reported $116 million in cash, and the original Democracy PAC had an additional $58 million.

Anyone remember Chicago Progressive Partnership, the shell group that spent big to back pro-Israel candidates in Illinois Dem primaries? It just closed up... and transferred its bank balance back to AIPAC's super PAC.

Ence Morse reposted

Ence Morse reposted

Replying to @wpdatateam.bsky.social

After unverified claims that Talarico was discharged from a mental health hospital spread on X, right-wing influencers posted about him more frequently on Sunday than at any other point this year

Ence Morse reposted

Ence Morse reposted

i'm going to be piloting a new, free public health newsletter in the coming weeks. if you've been wanting to benefit from my public health news addiction and analytic experience in peace without all the shitposts or tangents in between, this is for you! 😊

Ence Morse reposted

Replying to @samwang.bsky.social

So, ways the gerrymanders could backfire: OH: Now 10 R, 5 D. Tried for 12 seats; could end up with 7, a 3-seat loss. NC: Now 10 R, 4 D. Tried for 11; 6 would be a 4-seat loss. FL: Now 20 R, 8 D. Tried for 24; 16 would be a 4-seat loss. TX: Now 25 R, 13 D. Tried for 30; 24 would be a 1-seat loss.

Ence Morse reposted

Ence Morse reposted

This interactive is amaaaazing. Some great SVG animation stuff + good UX. Hurting my brain figuring out how I'd implement that map-to-dotplot animation

Washington Post Data Team@wpdatateam.bsky.social

Story from @teoarmus.bsky.social @ence.bsky.social with beautiful quiz/graphics by @erxclau.me. Read Jen's full story and the complete analysis here: wapo.st/4idKlLQ

Ence Morse reposted

Replying to @wpdatateam.bsky.social

This year's battleground districts are also *not* more suburban than the country as a whole. Or more rural. Instead, battleground districts are full of small cities -- like Greeley, CO, where Jen lives -- with high homeownership rates. wapo.st/4idKlLQ

Read Jen's story — and take the beautiful quiz designed by @erxclau.me — here!!! So thrilled this piece is out. Gift link: wapo.st/4idKlLQ

Washington Post Data Team@wpdatateam.bsky.social

Jen Hernandez, and people like her, may just decide who controls Congress this year. Hernandez, 43, is Mexican-American, millennial, married, and lives in a small city in Colorado. In 2016, she voted for comedian Roseanne Barr. In 2020, she backed Biden, and in 2024 Jill Stein. 🧵

i’m taking over our team account today! if folks have any campaign finance/redistricting/census/etc qs... send them over 🫡

Washington Post Data Team@wpdatateam.bsky.social

Hi y’all! I’m Ence, and I cover political data at the Post. I've spent this year tracking megadonors & dark money. Let's do an AMA! Want to know what's up with all that AI money? What Elon Musk's super PAC is doing? How to find a candidate's donors yourself? Reply here & I'll answer til 4 PM ET.

Ence Morse reposted

Replying to @wpdatateam.bsky.social

But why now? One Republican pollster, Whit Ayres, called it a "distraction" from other issues: "Focusing on Muslims and sharia is easier than focusing on gas prices and war in Iran. It’s not complicated."