Fuchs 🇪🇺

Fuchs 🇪🇺

@ffffuchs.bsky.social

ceo of rules based reich ｜ funposter, four channel class of '07｜ archive wizard, 'hate the cloud ｜ maker of poor rkgk｜ physics msc｜ TZD｜ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

249 followers819 following426 posts

Fuchs 🇪🇺 reposted

Alt National Park Service
@altnps.bsky.social

A huge thank you to CNN, MS NOW, Politico, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, Fox News, PBS News, NPR, The New York Times, The Washington Post, HuffPost, the Associated Press, Reuters, Getty Images, and AFP for standing together in defense of a free press.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

formative 9 animes thingie it was suprisingly hard to think about 9 titles i think was influental in my early years vs whats my top i could very much push in couple more titles here.

Fuchs 🇪🇺 reposted

Illia Ponomarenko
@ioponomarenko.bsky.social

The story of how Nestle and Auchan refused to leave Russia in 2022, only for Putin to eventually seize their businesses with a single stroke of the pen, deserves to be told by sages as a biblical parable.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

1/ Thinking about the current discourse on attacks on warehouses etc. as Clement Molin also raised it in a post today whetever Ukraine's strategy was smart but im less skeptical, and more importantly I think a deeper strategic insight is missing from the picture here when we analye both campaigns.

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Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

3/ From the aggressor's POV this means they can be more lenient and wider about target selection as previously, limited munitions + UA AD meant they were forced to attack a few targets in saturation attacks to ensure hits. The calculus tipped against Ukraine for the time being

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

4/ So for ru constraint enveloppe is less limited, thus, after purely military targets the next logical step is hitting logistics. So IMHO, russia would be doing this regardless of Ukrainian actions, though a need to mirror UA strikes does exist.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

1/ Thinking about the current discourse on attacks on warehouses etc. as Clement Molin also raised it in a post today whetever Ukraine's strategy was smart but im less skeptical, and more importantly I think a deeper strategic insight is missing from the picture here when we analye both campaigns.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

2/ ru long-range capabilites have been steadily expanding with low cost munitions like jet drones, while at the same time UA AD is strained, though short and medium range defense is still properly supplied ballistic defense is very lacking. +Jet Geran interception% still needs to increase, too.

Fuchs 🇪🇺 reposted

Michael LaFrance
@mlafrance.bsky.social

A livestream of a volcano in the Philippines captured a meteor crashing to Earth today. What are the odds? Mayon Volcano, Location: Albay, Luzon, Philippines

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

1/ There's lot of fears wherever Orbán will either cheat Hungarian election results, or cause some kind of scenario similar to Belarus or Georgia, but I don't think it will happen. They will, with lot of seething hand over power peacefully.

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Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

4/ Then there's plain electoral geography: Orbán's power base is diffuse across the countryside, Tisza has hundreds of thousands of eager supports in the capital and metro region. Orbán simply can't quickly muster enough people, they days at least to bus up tens of thousands of pensioners.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

1/ There's lot of fears wherever Orbán will either cheat Hungarian election results, or cause some kind of scenario similar to Belarus or Georgia, but I don't think it will happen. They will, with lot of seething hand over power peacefully.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

2/ HU election infrastructure is basically GOP wet dream, though mail in votes are a thing it's not widespread. And it's my impression lot of people will travel just to cast their vote in person. While vote buying exists in poor rural regions, overall its small and can't move the needle one bit.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

3/ As for any attempt to deny handing over power, the big block to that is that Orbán had never built up a grey oppressive state arm as they could always rely, until 2024non their dominance of the economy and media landscape. There are titushkis, but very few in number.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

People run with '20% oil exports lost" figure but that's not true; The Saudi E-W pipeline is sending 5-6 millions of barrels to the Red Sea, and some, mostly Chinese tankers are still snucking through the strait, about 5% of normal volume. I think the total loss is closer to 10%.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

1/ Some thoughts on #Hungarian elections: Lot of observers seem to be concerned about foreign meddling, but they either can't grasp or don't know that since ~2019 Orbán has been employing every trick in the dirty playbook of election influencing [...]

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

2/ GONGOS like Megafon or MCC are employing up to hundreds to run large and small political influencer accounts while paying thousands to act as human bots and of course, also employing trad. bot networks to boost post. The HU media landscape has been dominated down by the govt shaping the space.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

3/ We don't need russian-made fake news pages and fake commentors, Fidesz has been doing this very work. They created a whole ecosystem of far-right actors that boost each other and are also terated by state media as "experts". Public media *is* fake media.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

Hungary polling demographics: TISZA has 2/3 lead with young people, Fidesz only leads among 65+. TISZA enjoys similar dominance with graduates, Fidesz' support crawls up as the less educated people are. Same applies for town size, TISZA clear winner in large cities, Fidesz only leads in villages.

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

It's important to see that #Qatar is only a minor #LNG supplier of the #EU. In just a few years we succesfuly diversified our imports so no one party has leverage over us. Still, Asia's LNG shortage will inevitably affect ours too, but the current shock pricing will probably subside quickly.

Fuchs 🇪🇺 reposted

James
@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social

OH NO THEY'RE GONNA DESTROY CNN You mean the "news" network that integrated an online political gambling site into their programs and turned every segment into Crossfire? Oh fuck. How will we ever recover

Fuchs 🇪🇺
@ffffuchs.bsky.social

As I predicted, Fico didn't stop electricity supplies to Ukraine. The trick is in his wording: He specifically promised ban on emergency supplies, which happens when during blackouts, Ukrenergo request more power. But I doubt that was ever much, SK-UA only has one 400 kV interconnector.