F. Javier Rubio

📦 SimLT update, my R package for simulating survival times from life tables. sim_pophaz() now inverts the piecewise-linear cumulative hazard exactly: method = "direct" (default), ~10x faster. Root search kept: method = "uniroot". Faster merging in tutorial too! github.com/FJRubio67/SimLT #rstats

Three postdoctoral positions in the UCL Department of Statistical Science. Prof. Robin Mitra, Dr Emma Simpson, and I are offering a project at the intersection of extreme value analysis, conformal prediction, and missing data: "Mind the Gap: Conformal Prediction for Extremes under Missing Data".

We are hiring at ESSEC @essecbs.bsky.social (Cergy campus, near Paris). Assistant professor -- econometrics and/or statistics, data analytics. Do not hesitate to contact me or the other members of the group if you have questions. assets.ctfassets.net/vmb6iqn8sgcm...

It is that time of year when students start applying for PhDs. Here is my yearly post with some general advice to improve your chances. Recall that you need to apply for funding and a PhD project, which in most instances are two separate processes. drive.google.com/file/d/1XqJB...

Happy to share that our paper "Conformalized Regression for Continuous Bounded Outcomes", written with Z. Wu and F. Leisen, has been accepted for publication in Journal of Machine Learning Research. This is Zhanli's first paper accepted for publication as a PhD student. arxiv.org/abs/2507.140...

The advisory group on mathematics and artificial intelligence, of which I am a member, has just published a set of recommendations concerning the responsible release of mathematical results generated by AI companies using internal models. 1/3 agmai.org/general-sep29/

Prof. Terry Soo arranged a re-union of present and past Heads for the Department of Statistical Science. Epic picture!

www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/s...

A group of 25 Fields Medalists, including myself, have made a joint declaration on Math and AI: mathandai.org . We welcome additional signatories. See also this article in the Economist announcing the declaration: www.economist.com/science-and-...

Today is one of those rare days when arxiv.org/list/stat/new has over 100 new entries (104 today). Getting harder to browse over my morning coffee. #arxiv #statistics

In this special episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath to discuss Bayesian Workflow. From simulation and hierarchical pooling to causal inference, there’s a lot to unpack 🎧 lnkd.in/geX2QkxV #Bayesian

I have now started the migration to #ConnectCloud. It seems to be less painful than I expected, although I still have to go through one document at a time, which is probably not a bad thing, as it gives me a chance to check which documents I still need. connect.posit.cloud/fjrubio

It looks like #RPubs and #QuartoPub will need to be migrated to #ConnectCloud. It probably makes a lot of sense, but it's also quite a bit of work if you have several tutorials hosted only on RPubs (rpubs.com/FJRubio). Time find more efficient ways to store and manage them posit.co/blog/migrati...

JAGS 5.0.0 is released martynplummer.wordpress.com/2026/08/02/j...

Research Fellow post at LSHTM. Come and work with Njeru Njagi, Matteo Quartagno, Wende Clarence Safari, Aurélien Belot, Bernard Rachet and myself on extending multiple imputation methods, in particular for analyses of electronic health records in cancer. jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

Congratulations to our very own Prof. Jim Griffin on winning the 2025 Lindley Prize of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis @isba-bayesian.bsky.social for his paper "Expressing and Visualizing Model Uncertainty in Bayesian Variable Selection Using Cartesian Credible Sets"

Following the decision of Statistics and Computing to charge (high!) APCs to *all* accepted papers, I decided to resign from the Editorial Board. (Sorry to the let EiC down, he's doing a super job).

“Springer about to hijack Statistics & Computing” xianblog.wordpress.com/2026/06/28/s...

Sports Commentary xkcd.com/3262/

New preprint with P. Basak and A.R. Linero "Bayesian Causal Machine Learning for Cure Models" arxiv.org/abs/2606.11405 We define causal effects in survival cure models and introduce BartCure, a Bayesian causal machine learning estimation methodology.

Hey #stats and #biostats folks I have a new starter pack. Which departments or organizations am I missing here? go.bsky.app/NrqteQw

This change went under my radar. Heads up for #rstats users: as of devtools 2.5.0 03/2026, install_github() and all other install_*() functions are deprecated in favour of pak. Full migration guide at: devtools.r-lib.org/reference/in... #github

Fields medallist Terence Tao discusses how ever-evolving technology is transforming mathematicians’ work go.nature.com/4cOt1ZM

Half a million Britons’ medical data stolen and offered for sale on Alibaba in UK Biobank hack

More details about the Bayesian Workflow book and case studies now available on the book web site avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... (but you still need to wait a bit for the book)

#OTD 1761 Thomas Bayes d. Best known for his theorem, he never published it; his notes were edited posthumously by his friend Richard Price. Much of his early work related to infinite series & numerical analysis; he never published that either & similar results are attributed to Lagrange 1/4🧵

March 2026 ISBA Bulletin, featuring a little contribution by Mark Steel and me on the 80th anniversary of the Jeffreys' prior. isba-bulletin.github.io/ISBABulletin/ @isba-bayesian.bsky.social

Karl Pearson b #OTD 1857 (d April 27 1936) Founder of biometrics, & developer of mathematical statistical theory with many classical statistical methods still in use. In 1911 he launched the world's first university statistics department at UCL

Happy International Day of Women and Girls in Science! #InternationalDayofWomenandGirlsinScience

New preprint with my student Eric Chen, co-supervised with Jim Griffin: “Bayesian variable and hazard structure selection in the General Hazard model” arxiv.org/abs/2602.03756 We develop Bayesian methododology for simultaneous selection of variables and the hazard structure in survival analysis

FDA guidance on Bayesian clinical trials statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/15/f...

The effect of the shape (skewness) parameter in skew-symmetric models, Part III Based on Le Cam divergence, showing that the effect of this parameter in some models, such as the skew-normal, is tiny in a neighbourhood of 0 rpubs.com/FJRubio/DivM...

Mathematical Colloquium (at King's College London): A duality in the foundations of probability and statistics through history by Vladimir Vovk www.kcl.ac.uk/events/mathe...

#OTD 1763 Richard Price (1723-1791) reads ‘An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances' to the Royal Society. It is the basis of what is now called Bayes's Theorem, written by his friend Thomas Bayes who had died 2 years before.

New paper with J.A. Christen, just accepted in Statistical Methods in Medical Research "Hazard-based distributional regression via ordinary differential equations" preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2512.16336 R and Julia code + data: github.com/FJRubio67/Su... #rstats #JuliaLang #SciML

All the material for my Bayesian Data Analysis course is available online, including the lectures, which we re-recorded this fall (some of them by @aloctavodia.bsky.social and Noa Kallioinen while I was on vacation). The video links are listed in the schedule at avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A...

4 or more UCL Departmental Studentships Deadline 9 January 2026 PhD Studentships, based at the UCL Department of Statistical Science. Open to Home and Overseas applicants. www.ucl.ac.uk/mathematical... Also, apply for admission to the MPhil/PhD programme. www.ucl.ac.uk/mathematical...

We are hiring! We are recruiting two Assistant Professors. The closing date is 25 January 2026. More information here 🔗: warwick-careers.tal.....

How can we make cancer care in England both equitable and sustainable for the NHS? 🤔 Join researchers, patient advocates & experts for The Great Debate. This event is part of London Global Cancer Week, co-hosted ICON & the Institute of Cancer Policy @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social 👉 bit.ly/43eRxiY

Journal submissions got you stressed? Daniela Witten of the University of Washington shares advice about editing and dealing with rejection when submitting papers to academic journals. magazine.amstat.org/...

English Indices of Deprivation 2025 (IoD25) and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD25) are published today. This is an update in the series, following on from the 2019 #deprivation indices. UK Government website: www.gov.uk/government/s...