Florian Foos

Florian Foos

@florianfoos.bsky.social

Associate Professor in Political Behaviour at the LSE. I like campaigns and do experiments. http://www.florianfoos.net

5K followers1.9K following985 posts

Florian Foos reposted

Polanski has also failed to show to voters on the centre-left that the Greens would be a credible party of government, e.g. on foreign affairs. Labour will be pleased with this.

Good Tory policy on universal free childcare hours- the current system really does set crazy counterproductive incentives for taxpayers around the threshold. And earning a lot of money (and paying a lot of tax) shouldn’t mean that you should be excluded from these types of working parent benefits.

Florian Foos reposted

For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November

Unless I‘m missing something, it looks very unlikely that Muresan will get anywhere close to enough MPs to support his minority government at the investiture vote tomorrow and this has been clear for some time, so it‘s a bit of a puzzle to me why we are going through the motions here.

Florian Foos@florianfoos.bsky.social

... which rocked the Romanian justice system earlier this year. Romania is heading for a highly uncertain investiture vote this Wednesday for a reformist minority government headed by Siegfried Muresan, the national-liberal MEP, supported by PNL, USR & UDMR (the Hungarian minority).

I guess there is a point to drawing a dividing line and letting the PSD-AUR majority look a bit ridiculous in hearings, but it doesn’t make forming a government any easier.

That was overall a good speech from Burnham with some big ideas including electoral reform, social care reform and an open-ended relationship with the EU. The strategy here is to set out a bold progressive agenda, but leave implementation for after an election (or when there is fiscal room re care).

This is a strategy of having it both ways- sticking to fiscal rules and thinking big. Making big promises that you don’t have to implement immediately- it’s clever because „small steps now, big steps later“ gets centre-left parties out of the immediate fiscal constraint, at least for a while.

It sets out a vision where they want to take the country. It also makes it more likely that we’ll get an earlier election, not next year, but in 2028.

Might be a bit controversial, but a party that counts amongst its potential Presidential candidates politicians of the caliber of Ossoff and AOC is maybe not quite as badly in crisis as it appears. There is a talented millennial generation ready to lead.

A lack of obvious talent in politics is a problem for parties on the centre-left in other countries. I don’t see that in the US (which has other problems, but talent isn’t one).

Was on the morning flight from Cluj to Bucharest & spotted the designated Minister of Justice, the independent reformist, former judge & BBU Law Prof Andrea Chiș, a few rows down. She is known for speaking out in the Recorder documentary "Captured Justice" ...

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Kimberly Guilfoyle, Trump's Ambassador to Greece, allegedly claimed as much at a dinner with a Greek minister & there were meetings between the PSD Party President & Guilfoyle in spring.

If, as predicted, Muresan loses the vote, all cards are off again & President Dan might continue to look for that elusive government formula that can get enough votes in parliament (it's been 5 months now), or the country might be heading towards new elections, with far-right AUR leading the polls.

Was on the morning flight from Cluj to Bucharest & spotted the designated Minister of Justice, the independent reformist, former judge & BBU Law Prof Andrea Chiș, a few rows down. She is known for speaking out in the Recorder documentary "Captured Justice" ...

... which rocked the Romanian justice system earlier this year. Romania is heading for a highly uncertain investiture vote this Wednesday for a reformist minority government headed by Siegfried Muresan, the national-liberal MEP, supported by PNL, USR & UDMR (the Hungarian minority).

It looks very unlikely right now, but not entirely impossible, that they will gain the votes needed. This comes after speculation that the last coalition government was brought down by PSD & AUR, in coordination with the Trump admin...

Burnham sticks to his guns re exclusives for the Sun. Born in Merseyside he grew up in the North West.As Minister he helped set up the Hillsborough Independent Panel: www.bbc.com/news/article.... Here are my thoughts from '23 about Labour's relationship with the press: fabians.org.uk/pressing-the...

bbc.comBurnham will not do 'special interviews' with Sun newspaperThe prime minister says he will do his "own communications", differently to others in the past.

Florian Foos reposted

Call for Proposals: EPSS Copenhagen 2027 Pre-Conference Workshops! We're seeking proposals for workshops on 23 June 2027, at the University of Copenhagen. Whether you are a senior scholar or an ECR, we want your expertise! ⏳Deadline: 13 Nov 2026 🔗Apply here: epssnet.org/2027-copenha... #EPSS2027

epssnet.orgPre-Conference Workshops EPSS 2027Submit your proposal for a pre-conference workshop at the EPSS 2027 Conference in Copenhagen to lead focused discussions and skill-building sessions for political science scholars.

Florian Foos reposted

📢 CALL FOR PAPERS! We invite submissions for the Political Methodology Seminar Series on frontiers in empirical political science and CSS. We welcome research examining political behaviour, public opinion, comparative politics, and CSS. Research on adjacent topics are also highly encouraged.

Much is made of state specific reasons, but the CDU's losses are perfectly in line with national polls that have them at around 20%. MV was one of their weakest states to start (despite Merkel's former constituency being there). While levels are different, both MV & Berlin moved in parallel: -8%p.

Side note: This is not only another very bad result for the CDU, but for the centre-right in general. The FDP doesn't even factor anymore. 1% in MV and likely no more than 2-3% in Berlin. Looks like the populist rebirth of the Free Democrats isn't quite going to plan.

Now more likely than not that the CDU will fail to cross the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. This is consistent with the ongoing count.

MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN | Hochrechnung Landtagswahl Infratest dimap/ARD, 21:47 Uhr AfD: 38,3% (+21,6) SPD: 35,4% (-4,2) LINKE: 6,5% (-3,4) GRÜNE: 5,5% (-0,8) CDU: 4,9% (-8,4) BSW: 4,9% (NEU) FDP: 1,0% (-4,8) Sonstige: 3,5% (-4,9) Änderungen zum Wahlergebnis von 2021 #ltwmv

Merz speaking early & decisively after the exit polls was obviously meant to end any debate about his position(s) before they properly started. The problem is that as the night unfolds, the CDU’s scores in both states have weakened and the CDUs position looks more fragile than predicted in exits.

It’s all very close, but they are currently at exactly 5.0% in MV and one or two seat short of a majority with SPD & Greens in Berlin (I assume the plan there was to put pressure on the SPD and Greens not to go into coalition with the Left).

If both of these events happen, the defiant tone of Merz’ early speech might be perceived as out of step with the result, which, if the CDU really failed to clear the threshold in MV, would be seismic.

In many ways I really appreciate that former German ministers Habeck and Baerbock went to lecture at good universities rather than ... take a job with the sorts of Palantir.

Very much looking forward to be part of this seminar series and to visiting @institute-juanlinz.bsky.social in late November. See you in Madrid!

Instituto Juan Linz@institute-juanlinz.bsky.social

🚨 Madrid people, mark your calendars: the permanent seminar of the Instituto Juan Linz is back! We have a great series of speakers from across the social sciences this year. First talk this Friday with @llschenoni.bsky.social Here is the program for this Fall: