Yevgeniy Golovchenko

Danish media report renewed Russian interest in a “security agreement” with Denmark that would decrease confrontations at sea, like when RU fired flares at a Danish helicopter. This is likely a disingenuous attempt to loosen diplomatic isolation. nyheder.tv2.dk/2026-10-13-r...

If Russia wanted to ease tension, they would not violate the Danish airspace, launch cyber attacks, GPS jamming, surveillance, disinformation and other hybrid attacks… or invaded Ukraine, for that matter. Many agreements already exist that Russia decides to break or bend.

The US puts important sanctions against Russia (and their buyers) on hold. This is the natural next step after the diesel deal with RU. I would expect more sanctions to be lifted, especially on some of the shadow fleet vessels and firms (see my previous post below) apnews.com/article/russ...

Jeg var på DR i fredags for at tale om, hvordan russiske statskontrollerede medier dækker episoden med Forsvarets helikopter og det russiske krigsskib. Dækningen bruges til at understøtte mindst to tilbagevende propagandanarrativer: fortællingen om den mægtige, russiske flåde og...

Trump’s announcement to buy diesel from Russia is a big deal. It’s a major shift from US policy to limit Russias revenues from oil products. This brings us a bit closer to a future where the EU increasingly implements the most important sanctions without the US. Here is what I would keep and eye on👇

Money transfers around the world are still often dependent on US financial institutions. Nobody really wants to be cut from American banks - not even Chinese or Indian companies. This is the result of the US’ political, economical and military dominance throughout the past decades.

Trump’s announcement to buy diesel from Russia is a big deal. It’s a major shift from US policy to limit Russias revenues from oil products. This brings us a bit closer to a future where the EU increasingly implements the most important sanctions without the US. Here is what I would keep and eye on👇

This brings back to the point in the first post. How effective will the global sanctions against Russia be, if the US is increasingly not behind them? This is important, because targeted sanctions work by isolating the target from key global institutions: global financial institutions, insurances

Trump’s announcement to buy diesel from Russia is a big deal. It’s a major shift from US policy to limit Russias revenues from oil products. This brings us a bit closer to a future where the EU increasingly implements the most important sanctions without the US. Here is what I would keep and eye on👇

Then there is the risk of Trump’s decision cascading to other sanctions. How many sanctions will the US have to lift to make the deal happen? For example, will the US cancel the sanctions on Rosneft or affiliated RU companies, if they provide the diesel? What will this list do to other sanctions?

Trump’s announcement to buy diesel from Russia is a big deal. It’s a major shift from US policy to limit Russias revenues from oil products. This brings us a bit closer to a future where the EU increasingly implements the most important sanctions without the US. Here is what I would keep and eye on👇

The most obvious Russian move would be to exploit the US-EU divide. For example, RU could try deliver diesel to the US through vessels and companies that are only sanctioned by EU or even by both the EU and US.

“I fem døgn var Læsø Kommune i forhøjet beredskab, mens russiske skibe cirkulerede rundt i et område med vigtige søkabler” Det interessante ved den slags hændelser er netop, at myndighederne bliver nødt til at reagere - de få ressourcer, vi har, bliver spredt endnu tyndere www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

How many shadow fleet vessels cross Denmark? We have identified *at least* 192 unique tankers in the first 3 months of 2026 in our upcoming report by Sofia Steensma Tedder, @lilleberlin.bsky.social and myself with support from @sitestockholm.bsky.social. Stay tuned for more info in the final report

This is a lower limit, since it only includes crude oil tankers that have been sanctioned by either the EU, US or UK. We look at vessels that either enter or leave the Baltic Sea. Future estimates will be more precise. Special thanks to Tedder for spearheading the analysis. Much more yet to come!

Det er lige nu uklart hvorfor den russiske fregat affyrede flares mod Forsvarets helikopter. En ting er klart. Det er en del af et mønster: øget spænding i Østersøen under tærsklen til en egentlig krig. Kan det blive vildere? Ja, vi er i gang med at se en gradvis eskalation.

I Østersøen bliver eskalationen drevet af flere dynamikker på én gang: 1) Ruslands invasion af Ukraine og generel chikane af NATOs skibe og fly (vi ser det eksempelvis også i Sortehavet), 2) russisk brug af skyggeflåden og andre skibe til sanktionsundvigelde, mulig sabotage og overvågning,

Det er lige nu uklart hvorfor den russiske fregat affyrede flares mod Forsvarets helikopter. En ting er klart. Det er en del af et mønster: øget spænding i Østersøen under tærsklen til en egentlig krig. Kan det blive vildere? Ja, vi er i gang med at se en gradvis eskalation.

Vi er ikke unikke - lignende konfrontationer bluser op næsten regelmæssigt i Stillehavet udenfor Taiwans kyst og eksempelvis Filippinerne. Bl.a. Kina bruger civile og militære skibe til at eskalere og demonstrere magt på en måde, der stadig holder konflikten under tærsklen til en formel krig.