Genevieve Signoret

I'm glad I clicked.

This is very good on Trump’s last two years (and scary).

carloschavezp29.substack.com/p/why-econom...

Funny and plausible. And educational.

Eery.

Context here: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/u...

This fits with my memory of Graham. I’m of course sorry for anyone close to him who lost a loved one, but I’m not understandanding the political nostalgia for him, as if he’d been some sort of principled stander-up to Trump.

Donald Trump reaches a new low in our tracker of polling with YouGov www.economist.com/interactive/...

“Two states are paying a great price for trusting in the USA—Saudi Arabia and Ukraine (and through Ukraine, Europe as well). Both states are getting bombarded by their enemies and are either being abandoned by the USA or, in the case of Ukraine, are seeing these attacks being supported by the USA”

I like this table as a communication tool

Does Trump want the Republicans to lose power in the midterm elections?

Funny!

No doubt this has occurred to other bystanders as well, but it would seem that a handful of billionaires dropping $150 million into a single state's election in an attempt to defeat a wealth-tax initiative just about makes the entire case for a wealth-tax initiative.

This is what crowd out looks like.

GOLDMAN: “.. S&P excluding AI stocks has fallen roughly 7% from its late-August peak, giving back its entire summer rally." @yahoofinance.com

...surplus, & increasing the scope for capital deepening: “AI” is batting not 0 for 3 and not 3 for 3, but 2 for 3. TFP is the one that has not yet arrived at the picnic... < braddelong.substack.com/p/aggregate-... > 2026-10-05 2/END

Bullish for corporate profits.

Links to NYT article that reports: "Most alarming, the document says that Russia intends to force Ukraine’s three operating nuclear plants — the backbone of its power infrastructure — to shut down." www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/w...

By my reading, the takeaway for investors is that, because the oil curve is so strongly backwardated, a carefully constructed long commodity-futures position that captures the roll yield may still be attractive, even though the market expects spot oil prices to fall sharply by next spring.

Check out segment on corporate profits at around minute 35. Bob and Aahan explain how they break down impulses to corporate profits and what risks they see to their growth sustainability. Also interesting: Bob's awe at +80% in Korean exports.

JUST POSTED: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have pushed a multibillion oil deal with Russia as part of peace talks that will bring profits to their family business partners. A new front for Trump-era conflicts of interest. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...

The pending oil deal involves Russian Lukoil international assets (now sanctioned by the US) that would be acquired at a big discount by a Trump campaign donor, a UAE-based investor in Trump/Witkoff family crypto company, and Kushner/Ivanka's Qatari-based real estate partners.

Hahahahahahaha!

1. I’ll wait for Europe to say it. 2. If true but the conflict goes , the resulting relief will not last.

Talarico up to 65% on Kalshi:

this is a real problem, but cartel is a bad solution, for very obvious reasons. (it is the main solution we currently use in Western economies, which explains why our economies have turned extractive rentier, 'cuz there's no limiting principle to cartel.) can i interest you in a better solution?

He's good at this. How Middle East Oil Exports Started Recovering www.nytimes.com/video/busine...

we’re past peak-trump (and the world knows it) @france24.com

It's an insane policy. It's har to even grasp how it could ever have been proposed or adopted.

JUST IN: A federal judge (Trump-appointed Stephanie Gallagher) has held the Trump administration in contempt for deporting a man to El Salvador in violation of three court orders. She's ordering the government to return him. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

“.. a surreal week in the life of Washington. The president of the United States barred American reporters .. and rolled out a literal red carpet for the communist president of China ..” @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/u...

Tant pis.

This seems so obvious to me. I can't figure out the hesitation.

It would also be bad for Americans. US gasoline and jet fuel production would also decline, and import prices would rise.

Tonight’s state dinner guests at the White House with President Xi include: • Chief Justice John Roberts, • Jane Sullivan Roberts, Spouse • Justice Amy Coney Barrett • Jesse Barrett, Spouse • Justice Brett Kavanaugh • Ashley Estes Kavanaugh, Spouse

Dems up to 59% chance of winning the Senate on the strength of this new polling www.economist.com/interactive/...

BOOCKVAR: “.. I had to go back to 1981 to see the last time expectations for prices received in the Philly mfr'g survey was this high.”

Alleluia.

JPM: “.. we now look for both Euro area and UK headline inflation to peak close to 4%. Recent gains in agricultural commodity prices add to the upside, reinforcing our expectations of a renewed rise in food inflation into early 2027 as adverse weather combines with the energy shock.”

I learned a lot.

carney knows he'll be in office longer than trump has left. that math is starting to matter everywhere. @gzeromedia.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=dULT...

"We revised our forecast up to three rate hikes late last week but remain concerned that the risks are to the upside. A soft landing may be fanciful, given the duration of inflation endured. "

He should go hole up in Montana and try to live off the land like a hermit if he doesn't want to trade.

My take on the Fed and the hike today. Brace for a rate hiking cycle. Not as convinced we will achieve an elusive soft landing. www.linkedin.com/posts/dianes...

"Pero cerrar la brecha no es lo mismo que tener margen. El superávit primario de 0.6% del PIB no constituye un colchón: se encuentra apenas alrededor del nivel necesario para contener la dinámica de la deuda y depende, además, de supuestos sensibles." substack.com/@dparedes/no...

Enlightening. thetwocents.substack.com/p/whatever-i...

I did not expect unanimity. #FOMC