John Kostyack

1 July

It's getting hot out there.

independent.comICE Detains Special Needs Student, U.S. Citizen Near Santa Maria High SchoolRapid Response volunteers witnessed the student being tackled and left with injuries requiring surgery.

This is what fascism looks like.

Chris Ingraham@cingraham.bsky.social

Kavanaugh stops in action: ICE tackled a non-verbal kid near his school, left him with injuries requiring surgery, and then left the scene when they realized he wasn't the person they were looking for www.independent.com/2026/10/23/i...

Debt finance is really hard to understand for those not well-versed in financial markets, so here's a helpful explainer. A key takeaway: investors in debt are seeing big problems with Big Tech's thesis on AI and charging more to cover its risk-taking.

Matt Scherer@matthewus.bsky.social

Anthropic's IPO filing yesterday revealed at least* $550bn in off-balance sheet debt, for a company with $16B in annual revenue. Paying its bills will require Anthropic to sustain implausible revenue growth given the pressures that are squeezing their--and the whole AI ecosystem's--margins. A 🧵

wsj.comExclusive | Broadcom CEO Intervened to Seal $63 Billion Anthropic Debt DealThe deal, announced on Monday, is the biggest ever to raise money for AI infrastructure.

Wall Street scrambled over the weekend to put together an $83B debt package for Anthropic before its S-1 was released. Note the sudden increase in interest rates charged for the $40B in bonds headed into the public markets, and the whopping $23B sent into the opaque private credit markets.

bloom.bgAnthropic IPO Filing Cites Reliance on Google, Amazon, MicrosoftAnthropic PBC is relying more and more on Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. to sell its artificial intelligence technology to customers, despite the three companies being rivals, investors and key suppliers of computing power.

This is the largest AI debt deal in history and so far, few commenters on the Anthropic S-1 have picked up on its significance. A huge expansion of the AI bubble, with a big part of the risky debt to be inherited by unsuspecting investors thanks to Wall Street's shady private credit business.

John Kostyack reposted

Bloomberg News

@bloomberg.com

20h

Anthropic is relying more and more on Google, Amazon and Microsoft to sell its AI technology to customers, despite the three companies being rivals, investors and key suppliers of computing power.

hillheat.newsLame Ducks For The Glory of TrumpHow BAAJA Threatens a Free DC, Part I: Passage of S.5653 will lead to “the next death mask of America.”

Until we DC residents get representation in Congress, we count on all of you to help protect this wonderful city from Trump's depradations. Which, it appears, will require you to tell your Senators and Representatives to stop BAAJA. #freedc

Brad Johnson@climatebrad.hillheat.com

#BAAJA is an existential threat to a #FreeDC. @dcpresleague.bsky.social @waba.org @savingplaces.bsky.social @freedcproject.bsky.social

Anthropic has filed its S-1, the first step toward its IPO. Its required risk analysis mentions 2 components of climate risk but ignores the 3d and most important. First, transition risk: changing governmental priorities & shifting public/political views on climate is risk for data centers....

View full thread

Stated differently: our success depends on always building more and bigger data centers, ad infinitum. Because the people's willingness to subjugate themselves and their planet and their climate to this gigantic experiment is infinite.

To be fair, p 29-30 says "we cannot provide assurance that increased investment in compute will result in commensurate improvements in model performance." But that seems like boilerplate, considering that the rest of the S-1 assumes the value of endless scaling (the "scaling law").

View full thread

heatmap.newsWhich AI Models Use the Most Energy?A new dashboard from the Sustainable AI Group, founded by artificial intelligence alums, estimates the relative energy intensity of proprietary tools.

GHG emissions are determined by # of calculations and carbon intensity (energy intensity & fuel sources) of each calculation. Anthropic & other tech companies refuse to disclose, so Sustainable AI Group dug into energy intensity and found agentic AI uses 27x more energy than chatbots.

Pretty good encapsulation of Big Tech's delusional scaling hypothesis on p28: "Our ability to maintain our position at the frontier of AI depends in part on ... successive versions of our models assist[ing] in building the next, with the goal of compounding capability gains over time."

23h

#RejectedAnthropicRiskFactors. "Our models could lead to burning a lot of fossil fuels, which could destroy the planet, but if that actually happens, it will be the fault of those who used our products without reading this risk advisory."

This post is unavailable.

substack.comOff-grid data centers have 60-80% higher emissionsA rush to power is leading data centers to install the least efficient and leakiest types of fossil gas generators rather than connecting to the grid

23h

@zekehausfather.com Data center developers are increasingly building private grids with engines & simple-cycle turbines. That's a big climate problem: they emit far more GHG emissions than public grids. In 6 of 7 data center hotspots, they emit between 36% and 95% more than the local public grid.

23h

In case you're wondering if that 7th hotspot offers good news for the climate, sorry, no. The private grid option is better than the public grid in the Cheyenne WY region only because the public grid burns a lot of coal.

View full thread

Missing from the S-1 is systemic climate risk, i.e., the risk that GHG emissions from Anthropic's data center operations will cause irreparable damage to the economy. Systemic climate risk is bad for Anthropic's customer base (and all living things) so it really should be addressed.

Notably absent from the S-1 is any quantification of GHG emissions, past or projected future. Anthropic mentions that its shift toward agentic AI will mean a much greater demand for "compute," ie., energy-intensive computer processing. So, how much worse are things going to get?

Second, Anthropic acknowledges physical risk, i.e., climate change worsens the risk that extreme weather will disrupt its data center operations. But wait, what's causing all of that climate disruption?

pubs.acs.orgOne Quarter of Global Data Centers are Located in Water-Stressed AreasAbstract. The rapid growth of digital services is increasing the demand for high-performance computing within data centers, intensifying the demand for loc

New study shows 1/4 of data centers worldwide are located in water-stressed areas. In essence, these areas have no spare water to give, but thirsty data centers are moving in anyway.

politico.comPoll: Data center backlash builds as midterms nearA new POLITICO Poll shows Americans are increasingly against building data centers near their homes and favor candidates who oppose them more than ones who support them.

Republican strategist suggests that GOP candidates break with Trump on data centers and show voters that "they are not a puppet." This is a truly great idea, would love to hear their commitments to no longer act as Trump's puppet on data centers and so many other issues.

John Kostyack reposted

Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they)

@doctorvive.bsky.social

This article is an important corrective to the claim that Federal environmental laws are holding back clean-energy development. Their empirical finding: "environmental reviews and permitting rarely delay or block utility-scale renewable energy projects." Link in next tweet.

wbur.orgWhy New England doesn't have large AI data centers, and what the region is doing to prepare for themIn much of the country, the AI boom is driving the construction of hyperscale data centers. Not so much in New England. But change is coming. Here's how some in the region are preparing.

Why is New England not facing a wave of hyperscale data centers? Key reasons: strong local zoning / democracy and no spare gas pipeline capacity. Also (not mentioned here): it's not sitting above a shale gas basin.

texastribune.orgData center backlash cracks rural Texas Republican wallRural Republicans have long undercut Democrats’ gains in cities and suburbs. Will enough defect to make a difference this fall?

On Democrats' efforts to break through Texas's "rural red wall": more than just data centers, it's overall disgust w Big Tech that creates the opening. The 10th Cong district (20+ Trump in '24) is a must-watch, it's where Elon is building his AI chip factory and the GOP candidate is his lawyer.

texastribune.orgTCEQ shuts down permit filing system amid data center disputeTexas environmental officials disabled an online filing system after watchdog groups raised concerns about the agency issuing permits related to data centers.

Good NGO sleuthing can produce quick wins. Congrats to @fractracker.bsky.social & @publiccitizen.bsky.social for getting the Texas data center permitting pause back in place.

John Kostyack@kostyack.bsky.social

@fractracker.bsky.social & @publiccitizen.bsky.social checked on how Gov. Abbott's Sept 21 pause on data center permitting was going. Turns out it is business as usual at TCEQ, w public-notice mailings, construction stormwater approvals & air emission-limit certifications.

washingtonpost.comAmazon cancels plan for data centers in Loudoun County, donates landThe company will repurpose the majority of the 122-acre property in Ashburn, Virginia, for mixed-use and residential development.

Data center opponents once again prove they are not to be trifled with.

Having worked for and with NGOs and foundations for most my career, I can't even begin to grapple with what NGO advocacy would look like if most philanthropic support was coming from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei and their ilk.

"Critics of the AI industry have argued that the charitable pledges amount to a marketing campaign aiming to win goodwill for a technology that is broadly unpopular with the public." Let's hope! Better a head fake then to see the tech bros dominate the NGO space (and take a tax break for it)

heatmap.newsNet Power Surrendered Its Clean Dreams to Data Center DemandThe zero-emission pioneer is doing the dirty work for the AI boom.

Good news, this company bails on CCS, is no longer hyping it as the clean technology of the future. Bad news, it's now making reciprocating engines ("among the dirtiest natural gas power-generation technologies") for data centers.

This cheered me up this morning.

LunaLuvgood2020@lunaluvgood2020.bsky.social

This is fantastic 💕 Dolly and Abdul El Sayed

I'm imagining a Nov 4 where we wake up to leaders like @abdulelsayed.bsky.social taking power and putting out a daily stream of happy videos celebrating our diversity. Everyone watches them and decides that they want more like this in 2028.

semafor.comExclusive: Trump and an oil shock aren’t enough for Texan drillers“‘Drill, baby, drill’ is basically drill as much as you can to commit economic suicide,” one of the Permian Basin’s top CEOs said.

Data centers solve two big problems for Permian oil drillers: excesses of water and fossil gas. Historically they've flared the fracked gas and injected the produced water into the ground, causing earthquakes. Now they expect data centers will burn all the gas and use the water for cooling.

John Kostyack reposted

KetAnthropic JoshAI

@ketanjoshi.co

extremely good @emorwee.bsky.social / @rebleber.bsky.social piece here, on the REALLY REALLY WILD number of ppl who think that gas is a "clean" fuel - that didn't just happen, the industry made it happen! heated.world/p/why-smart-...

heated.worldWhy smart people believe the myth that natural gas is cleanListen now (34 mins) | How the gas industry turned a half-truth into one of the most successful PR campaigns in fossil fuel history.

Texas's fossil-powered data center boom is really bad for Texans' lungs. Using ERCOT’s current generation mix & data center demand estimates from analytics firm Baxtel, HARC finds NOX pollution rises 136% above 2025 levels over the next 5 years, reversing decades of progress.

HARC Research@harcresearch.bsky.social

New HARC analysis: the data center boom could erase much of Texas’s air quality progress by 2031, depending on how new facilities get their power. Explore the scenarios: https://harcresearch.org/research/texas-data-center-air-quality #Texas #DataCenters #AirQuality #HARC

Dr. Sandra Steingraber 🏳️‍🌈

Estimated increase in particulate matter & C02 emissions under that scenario is 87%. So, maybe not a good time to be "reforming" the Clean Air Act?

John Kostyack reposted

@ssteingraber1.bsky.social

New essay from me about a Chinese-owned data center in rural central Oklahoma (El Reno, pop. 16K) that was operating illegally and drained the municipal water supply during the teeth of an extreme drought, closing public schools. Minor irony: it has no website. www.sehn.org/sehn/2026/10...

sehn.orgRepercussion Section: The Chinese Data Center at the Crossroads of Route 66 and the Chisholm Trail — The Science and Environmental Health Networkby Sandra Steingraber, senior scientist and writer in residence

substack.comData Center Developers Have Announced More Than 100 GW of Their Own Power PlantsThe growth of these power plants forced us to rethink how we track them

@michael-thomas.bsky.social on what's arguably the most significant trend in US energy: rapid buildout of gas plants at data center complexes. Time to jettison assumptions that energy developers will sit in interconnection queues, or that gas plant developers will wait for combined-cycle turbines.

With these latest stats - 110 GWs of gas-fired power on private grids under development - you can see what the fossil fuel industry and Big Tech love the permitting reform bill. bsky.app/profile/kost...

John Kostyack@kostyack.bsky.social

For those worried about gas-powered private grids at data center complexes, Sec. 2108 "appears to codify a pathway to wholesale markets" for these projects. It also imposes dispatchability requirements that could deny such a pathway to demand response, solar & other DERs.

@markgongloff.bsky.social

"..see why.."

John Kostyack reposted

Mark Gongloff

US carbon emissions exploded last year, rivaling the rest of the world combined. What a disgrace. www.unep.org/en/publicati...

politico.comClean energy isn’t fixing climate changeRenewable energy is booming. So why are carbon emissions still going up?

NextEra, the US's largest renewable energy developer. is teaming up w Trump to build massive fossil gas-powered energy hubs for data centers, aiming to get to 18GW of new gas generation. As the saying goes, "with friends like these..."

fractracker.org/2026/10/texa...

fractracker.orgTexas Continued Data Center Permitting after the Governor’s Pause - FracTracker AllianceAfter Gov. Abbott’s Sept. 21 halt, TCEQ kept advancing data center permits: expedited gas plant reviews, air certifications and stormwater approvals.

WaPo-ABC-Ipsos poll shows Americans have a big problem with data centers - and not just those in their own communities.

John Kostyack reposted

The New Republic

@newrepublic.com

America can have an oligarchy or a democracy—but not both. When Democrats next have national power, they must restrict the political power of billionaires, even including the so-called liberal ones that help put them in power. trib.al/UbF2XAk

subscriber.politicopro.comPOLITICO Pro: ‘Very limited choice’: Data centers confront new constraintsWhere data centers end up is evolving as political backlash grows. Increasingly, available access to power has become a top priority for the industry.

In selecting data center sites, "incentives and customer proximity are increasingly secondary considerations while power access and friendly neighbors are topping priority lists." And welcoming neighbors are increasingly hard to come by.

New map shows 35 active data center-related applications covering more than 24,000 acres of BLM lands in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. Just in time for the debate over the permitting reform bill, which would weaken public lands protections.

Center for Western Priorities@westernpriorities.org

New map tracks data center applications moving through BLM's pipeline https://blm-data-centers.netlify.app/

bloomberg.comOracle Data Center Fight Hands Activists Path to US-Wide BlitzAfter successfully disrupting Oracle Corp.’s data center plans in New Mexico, environmental activists say they’ve now got a blueprint for waging similar campaigns against hyperscalers across the US.

Data center campaigners are having a real impact with community organizing & enforcement of permitting laws. But US climate progress remains at great risk due to fossil-powered data centers.

Would love to see one of the expert forecasters, e.g., BNEF, measure the impact of data center campaigners - including their enforcement of environmental laws - on data center emissions & the US emissions trajectory. Ideally, in time for the permitting reform debate.