Werner Krause

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! “Polling and parliamentary representation” with @drphilphil.bsky.social & @aikowagner.bsky.social We ask whether voters systematically responded to public opinion polls during the 2025 election campaign in Germany. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

Our AK Wahlen special issue on the 2025 German election closes with another excellent article: Krause, Thomeczek & Wagner find that small polling shifts around the 5% threshold influenced support for The Left and BSW.

Ich freue mich, dass mein Buch "Demokratische Regierungssysteme" jetzt auch als Sonderausgabe für die Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung @bpb.de vorliegt. Bald bestellbar über: www.bpb.de/shop/

How do voters deal with the uncertainty which coalition government the party they vote for might ultimately join? Excited to see our paper on this question typeset in @thejop.bsky.social We show that voters are risk-averse and value less uncertain government prospects.

🚨New Paper in @polbehavior.bsky.social! Julia Leschke and I ask: What works against populist rhetoric? We find: Advocating for pluralist ideals can mitigate the negative effects of populist rhetoric. link.springer.com/article/10.1... More details below ⏬

For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November

Postdoc position within my group 3 years (100% TVl-13): stellen.uni-muenster.de/jobposting/2... ⏱️ 06.11.2026 If you have questions: get in touch!

@krausewe.bsky.social and I also want to congratulate our co-author @aigneranna.bsky.social on her first publication! 🎉🎉 Anna is a brilliant first-year PhD candidate at @gessunimannheim.bsky.social. 👉 Follow her for research on political behavior, political psychology, and personality in politics.

Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb

Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb

📣 We're hiring! Looking for a PhD position? Join our team in Berlin! Work with @heikekluever.bsky.social and @markuskollberg.bsky.social in #STATEWORK at Humboldt University and join our @dynamics.bsky.social PhD programme Great people, great project, great city! 🗓️ Deadline: 13 October 2026

Long read by @vox.com on the Saxony-Anhalt state election, the rise and radicalization of the AfD, and the broader implications for German politics, with comments from @casmudde.bsky.social and me. Thanks to @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social for the interesting conversation!

Dieses Paper von @krausewe.bsky.social, @denisevalenti.bsky.social & @tabouchadi.bsky.social kann nicht oft genug hervorgehoben werden. Does accomodation work? Well, no. Sie normalisiert nur die Standpunkte der extremen Rechten. (1/2)

Im Interview mit dem Freitag habe ich darüber gesprochen warum Wähler:innen radikale Veränderungen wollen, warum das links und rechts anders ist und warum die Erzählung falsch ist die SPD habe die Arbeiter an die AfD verloren. Hier das Interview...

In einem Interview mit dem @tagesspiegel.de habe ich über die Sonntagsfrage, ihre Ungenauigkeiten und ihren Einfluss auf Wählende gesprochen. Hierbei ging es auch um meine aktuelle Forschung zum Thema (u.a. mit @christinagahn.bsky.social). www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/die-...

New research with Lawrence Ezrow and Werner Krause in @wepsocial.bsky.social We show that more extreme governments are more likely to deliver policy solely to their supporters

New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...

Danke @irisbonavida.bsky.social für das Gespräch! Kurz gesagt: Für Parteien an der Vier-Prozent-Hürde macht es einen Unterschied, ob eine Umfrage sie knapp darunter oder knapp darüber zeigt. 📊🗳️ Wer mehr Details wissen möchte – das Paper mit @krausewe.bsky.social gibt es hier: doi.org/10.1086/742632

New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]

Now out: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

New paper, with Patrick Fournier & @zeynsom.bsky.social, out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social! 🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... a brief 🧵

Heading to the #EPSSBelfast conference next week? The EPSS Diversity Committee has organized several events to make this a welcoming space for everyone. Quick thread on what's happening and when 👇

One of the most intriguing papers I read during the last years 👇

Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Less than 1 week left to apply for this exciting postdoc opportunity ⬇️ @kathleenbeckers.bsky.social & I look forward to receiving applications 😀

Voters for extreme right protest parties have lower levels of subjective well-being, @stevendekeyser.bsky.social, @dieterstiers.bsky.social and I show in a new article in Journal of Happiness Studies @isqols.bsky.social . The effect, however, is almost fully mediated by anti-immigrant sentimens.

New paper w/ @lstoetze.bsky.social "Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls" out in @polanalysis.bsky.social 👀 When your outcomes are compositional (such as vote shares), applying synthetic controls separately to each part can break the math. We show how to fix it: 🧵

📣 New paper out in BJPolS 📣

A reminder that applications for this 3-year fully funded PhD position close at the end of next week (May 17). This is a great opportunity to work on climate politics comparative politics in a vibrant environment, with loads of freedom to develop your own project. www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...

Very happy to share that I am going to be the new Director of the Democracy unit at the @wzb.bsky.social Berlin Social Science Center. I am excited to form a new research unit on democratic politics and to engage with people in Berlin and elsewhere to make liberal democracy more resilient.

@zeit.de (@tilsteff.bsky.social) mit einem einordnenden Beitrag zum Landesparteitag der AfD in Magdeburg, zu dem auch ich einige Sätze beitragen durfte. > Die AfD ist in Sachsen-Anhalt nicht nur normalisiert und etabliert, sondern auch in sich selbst gewöhnlicher geworden. tinyurl.com/2j4b96ey