CarboTope updates! 1) carbotope.org now takes you to the tool. 2) csv and png downloads have been activated for figures. Please share with educators at your institution who might teach about the carbon cycle, and please give me feedback! (and like & subscribe).
Marcus C Sarofim
Marcus C Sarofim
@marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social
Climate scientist, ex-EPA. Writing climate science & policy at The Saraph Report. Saraph, my name's root, means fire, which is appropriate for climate work. Interested in books, food, and contra dancing when not obsessing over carbon.
636 followers75 following183 posts
A great summary of where we are in the quest to limit warming, and what we need to do
The 2026 UNEP Emissions Gap Report is out: The Point of Return. 🌍🌡️🔥 It's sobering but actionable. Decades of inadequate climate action have closed off opportunities to limit warming, but ambitious action today can still prevent much greater harm. A thread of some of the highlights 🧵
Trying to submit to Climate Policy and getting errors since last night (both Chrome & Safari) - can anyone confirm if this is general, or just a me problem? (I click go to submission site, and when I log with ORCID get page not found, and on "my submissions" the journal search function fails)
Particularly frustrating given all the peer-reviewed trash I just reviewed in my substack post.
My 2nd CarboTope post explores some additional features, gets into ocean acidification science, and takes down a bunch of contrarian arguments.
I made another thing! Check out CarboTope, a new carbon cycle model that calculates CO2 concentrations by hemisphere, season, and isotope, and is embedded in an educational website. Please test it out and share it with friends & colleagues who teach or think about carbon cycles. (model in beta)
Headlight glare regs are long overdue… now if they’d only deal with issues like hood height and other pedestrian fatality drivers. www.caranddriver.com/news/a716637...
Yes! I’ve long been a fan of more multifamily zoning in public transit friendly areas and getting rid of the two stairwell requirement (carefully), but the US elevator issues were new to me.
I have a confession to make. The townhomes I & others spent most of a decade trying to legalize are popping up all over Oregon & elsewhere...and I love that...but they're a problem in one big way. (get ready for a twisty thread about the housing report @sightline.org just published)
I made a thing (with Claude's help): it is a tool to analyze all the responses to the vehicle Endangerment rescission (98% opposed). Please like the substack and repost on bsky so that it gets visibility for all the people working on comments on the power plant Endangerment rescission.
See retractionwatch.com/2026/10/02/p...: though I think I was repeating someone else's (accurate) assessment of the paper as a hot mess rather than it being my own original take on the paper.
Nice to see my substack get linked from the NY times (click "surprises"): www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/o...
Marcus C Sarofim reposted
NEW PAPER: In a new paper, jointly published in @agu.org Earth's Future & @ametsoc.org BAMS, and co-led by Melissa Kenney, @costasamaras.com and me, 175 authors outline priorities to guide the future of scientific assessments of climate change in the United States. 🧵
Hopkins gave me their 2026 Excellence in Teaching award for Climate Change Policy Analysis, an evening course I've taught on and off for 8 years, and wrote up a faculty profile to go with it. I appreciate the recognition, but the real reward is working with amazing students (sorry for the schmaltz)
EPA's new power plant rescission argues that the "air pollution" Congress addressed in 1970 didn't include climate. It quotes Senator Muskie's 1970 floor statement twice while skipping the sentence where he warns of "irreversible atmospheric and climatic changes." My first read of all 162 pages.
The US has failed to submit greenhouse gas inventories to the UNFCCC for two years running, unlike the other 42 Annex I Parties. New post on why emission inventories matter and who is producing the US numbers now that the EPA isn't. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/lecture-3-...
The Trump Administration hates public comments, so keep doing it! I highlight coal ash, ship pollution discharge, roadless areas, and H-1B visa fees as comment opportunities for this month. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/public-com...
I had missed Sea Ice Today - glad to see it return!
Sea Ice Today is back! For nearly two decades, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, have helped people understand what is happening to sea ice in the Arctic and around Antarctica. Its monthly science analyses were paused last fall. buff.ly/e20zCU6
Marcus C Sarofim reposted
Sea Ice Today is back! For nearly two decades, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, have helped people understand what is happening to sea ice in the Arctic and around Antarctica. Its monthly science analyses were paused last fall. buff.ly/e20zCU6
The Trump Administration is trying to "amend" NCA5. That's ridiculous. I explain why in my post. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/the-rcp85-...
I've written some sf & fantasy book recommendations! (two are climate related to be on theme with the rest of my substack) thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/f-and-sf-r...
Lecture 2 is an overview of how economics and the environment interact. I also made a widget to explore the Coase Theorem - please play with it and give me feedback! thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/lecture-2-...
Yet another chance for comment, this time on NSF guidance that is trying to create a backdoor to the horrible OMB rule from earlier this summer. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/changes-in...
Climate brink dropped another quality post on wildfires : substack.com/@thesaraphre...
I recommend these three high quality books on climate and the environment that should give you cause for optimism: thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/the-optimi...
Marcus C Sarofim reposted
Today's post looks at Trump's push for coal in the context of OMB good governance guidance. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
I'm in the "comment on everything!" phase of my career - see my post for counts of comments on the last four proposed regulations, and five more regs waiting for new comments: open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
My latest post is about feedbacks. The first half is a primer, then second half is new results from adding additional feedbacks to the FaIR model. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
@cjsmith.eu I’d be particularly interested in your thoughts
My latest post is about feedbacks. The first half is a primer, then second half is new results from adding additional feedbacks to the FaIR model. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
Marcus C Sarofim reposted
Reminder that the deadline is tomorrow to comment on the OPM proposal to require NDAs from all government employees (substack.com/home/post/p-...) (along with the Post Office comment deadline of July 2nd, and the OMB politicizing science deadline on July 13th).
As a former EPA scientist, I found this interview very on point e360.yale.edu/features/tho...
Another opportunity for comment: the administration is trying to sell leases in Ohio's Wayne National Forest for fracking. See substack.com/home/post/p-... for details. Also, remember that the Trump Arch comment deadline is tonight. substack.com/home/post/p-...
See my latest post on comments you can make opposing proposed regulations from this administration on science funding, NDAs for civil servants, post office regulations on mail-in ballots, and the Trump Triumphal Arch. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
Marcus C Sarofim reposted
Now all done but the synthesis! Thanks to the ~110 scientists and practitioners, not to mention @agu.org and our local volunteers, for a great three days in Montreal!
Arriving in Montreal for the @agu.org Chapman Conference on Updating Usable Projections of Future Sea Level — already ran into about half a dozen colleagues before getting to my hotel!
Marcus C Sarofim reposted
That's a wrap! - 50 hours of science + calling Congress - 300 letters given to Congress after a 250-mile walk We provided the templates and our viewers and supporters injected their voices. And like last year, we feel so uplifted by our community. Thank you for spending your time with us
The @wclivestream.bsky.social is on hour 49 of livestreaming 100+ talks on climate and weather science! Tune in for the last hour to hear from @kimcobb.bsky.social and the group of scientists who walked from NYC to DC to hand off letters from around the country to Congresspeople!
I will be presenting on the Weather & Climate Livestream tomorrow (Wednesday) at 7:40 am (EST). My talk is about Certainties & Uncertainties, like my substack, but there will be new content! (see figure for an example) (some new content has not even finished being generated yet!) wclivestream.com
My new post updates my previous analysis, and also includes a grad school anecdote. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
Some challenges I encountered while using Claude (and some solutions) open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
My latest post has been weeks in the making, but is particularly timely because RCP8.5 has been in the news this week: open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...