Polls and markets can tell different stories. What’s your call for the US Senate? Make your prediction before election day: https://matakite.app/profile/matakite.app/question/3mxiwdahtlu2s #Midterms2026 #Forecasting
Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.