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new Expecting Goals blog! The new pace of play rules: they're working incredibly well to speed up play, but one of them may be working a little too well (and why no one's noticed yet) www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
Michael Caley
@michaelcaley.bsky.social
I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.
16.8K followers680 following21.4K posts
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new Expecting Goals blog! The new pace of play rules: they're working incredibly well to speed up play, but one of them may be working a little too well (and why no one's noticed yet) www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
new Expecting Goals on Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or career -his out of nowhere early breakout as a penalty area finisher -his mid-career transformation into a creator -the Bayern years and what Kane's career numbers might look like in a different team context www.expectinggoals.com/p/harry-kane...
Michael Caley reposted
Michael Caley reposted
Yes you are allowed to care about Brazilian elections. But the fact that US politics have become an MMORPG for right wing Twitter users is actually a negative development. And aren't you, an American, tired of hearing from Canadian Bluesky users about how we're on the verge of dictatorship?
I think this becomes quite understandable in the context of an international fascist movement that has swept much of the planet in a decade, with horrifying and very extreme consequences for the entire species
Michael Caley reposted
Michael Caley reposted
Michael Caley reposted
i don't think it's that crazy it's a lot harder to use public money to build a complicated interconnected grid of rail infrastructure than it is to use private money to build a bunch of big warehouses. like i don't think it's great only one of those is possible but what i do not think it is is crazy
Michael Caley reposted
it doesn't look to me like it was turnout? there were 119m valid votes in the first round and 124m valid votes counted so far 10m other candidate votes in the first round, mostly to conservative candidates, and Bolsonaro only up 3.5m votes total from the first round looks like mostly persuasion?
Bolsonaro had corrupt media on his side, Meta interference on his side, US propaganda operations, and his party's officials actively sabotaging public transport in Lula strongholds to prevent turnout. Yet he was still beaten by the power of voter turnout.
Michael Caley reposted
Michael Caley reposted
A @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social on site investigation.
football club sale actually real estate speculation in a trenchcoat
Michael Caley reposted
Michael Caley reposted
really good piece capturing one of the big stories of 2026 the economy is, one could say, converging with popular opinion about the economy -- not collapsing, but now really putting a strain on people's lives in the aggregate in a different kind of way
I have a new piece on the state of the economy - is it bad? No. Is it good? Also, no. www.cbpp.org/research/eco...
Michael Caley reposted
new Expecting Goals! rule changes have sped up the game impressively, but the main driver may be surprising: it's not faster restarts, tho they do make a difference, but rather the new rules on players receiving treatment on the pitch: www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
but the reason injury delays have gone down is that new rules create a heavy cost for receiving treatment on the pitch, and players and teams are reasonably responding to the new incentives receiving treatment is roughly equivalent to giving up a corner kick www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
so why hasn't this become a story? it's pretty much just a fluke of finishing luck. teams with the man advantage in the treatment minute have scored at under 50% of their xG and so it hasn't made a difference... yet www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
new Expecting Goals! rule changes have sped up the game impressively, but the main driver may be surprising: it's not faster restarts, tho they do make a difference, but rather the new rules on players receiving treatment on the pitch: www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
the decrease in injury delays has shaved two minutes(!) of dead time off games in the big five leagues (notably VAR and corner delays, which were not affected by rules changes, haven't moved or have gotten worse) www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
Michael Caley reposted
on this week's subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social, Mike and I were just talking about how our big worry with United was how Carrick was going to adapt and respond to some tactical challenges and, uh, what the fuck is this shit lol
Michael Caley reposted
new study on the "treatment minute", the new rule in football that players can't return to the pitch for a minute after receiving treatment for an injury it's creating a huge advantage and it'll be a talking point once a big goal is scored in a big game www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...
there is perhaps no more powerful force in left-lib influencer circles than Audience Capture Miserablism
youtubers, streamers, podcasters, etc are always on this beat bc they don't know how anything works & know that if they say something like this, their audiences will lap it up now & also 3 years later when they point to total gay commie revolution not happening and go "see? i was right!"