Michael Caley

Michael Caley

@michaelcaley.bsky.social

I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.

16.8K followers680 following21.4K posts

to me the coolest part of the story of Kane's career is one that's mostly been forgotten -- the adversity of the 2019 ankle injury period and how he responded by transforming himself from a pure penalty-box finisher to the best creative center forward in the world

Michael Caley reposted

Lionel Messi may have opted out of the Ballon d'Or ceremony but worry not, he did not opt out of making sartorial … choices … at the *checks notes* Messi Cup, naturally in partnership with *checks notes again* Messi Fragrances

Michael Caley reposted

Yes you are allowed to care about Brazilian elections. But the fact that US politics have become an MMORPG for right wing Twitter users is actually a negative development. And aren't you, an American, tired of hearing from Canadian Bluesky users about how we're on the verge of dictatorship?

flyingrodent@flyingrodent.bsky.social

I think this becomes quite understandable in the context of an international fascist movement that has swept much of the planet in a decade, with horrifying and very extreme consequences for the entire species

Michael Caley reposted

Not that it's the point of this to inform but none of these people really know how elections work

Jim Swift@jimswift.bsky.social

While I have election night plans already, I would have a hard time missing this all star cast.

Michael Caley reposted

Of course there was lots of stuff like this hitting Trump in 2016 with the difference being Amy Acton not being seen as negatively as Hillary Clinton and Ramaswamy having zero charisma.

precinct level data from Brazil shows that there were no differential turnout changes in pro Lula or pro Bolsonaro areas what changed was that Lula improved his vote share where he had been weak in the first round this doesn't look like the turnout story people were touting last night

broadly -I don't think there were no turnout gains, just the data isn't consistent with "all turnout" even more broadly -I think the dualism of turnout and persuasion is wrong because people who don't know who they'll vote for and people who don't know if they'll vote are actually very similar

Michael Caley reposted

Lula winning is great for the planet, great for Brazil, and great for people who aren't revanchist assholes everywhere in the world, but let's not forget that it's also going to make some of the worst people on Earth extremely sad and mad. We should enjoy that, as a little treat.

it doesn't look to me like it was turnout? there were 119m valid votes in the first round and 124m valid votes counted so far 10m other candidate votes in the first round, mostly to conservative candidates, and Bolsonaro only up 3.5m votes total from the first round looks like mostly persuasion?

George Potter 🔶@georgepotter.bsky.social

Bolsonaro had corrupt media on his side, Meta interference on his side, US propaganda operations, and his party's officials actively sabotaging public transport in Lula strongholds to prevent turnout. Yet he was still beaten by the power of voter turnout.

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both Kalshi and Polymarket sitting at around 70/30 to Lula what's come in has been amazing for Lula but it's still early, 70/30 means there's still a ton of uncertainty about the outstanding vote

Madrid have been so much better than I expected really the key has been the 40% possession, they've been excellent playing out against the press and not giving Barca the chances in transition they want Tchouameni notably fantastic, Diomande and Guler holding width

hopefully whatever game De Zerbi was running with how Fernandes needs to learn to play for a big club or whatever has now "worked" and he's just gonna start at the 6 from here in

Michael Caley reposted

Michael that is the opposite of how umbrellas work

Fabrizio Romano (MIRROR)@fabrizioromano.yopro20.com

🚨 Michael Carrick: “I will hold that umbrella for me to get wet, and everyone stays dry”. “We can be back on our way, I am 100% sure”.

really good piece capturing one of the big stories of 2026 the economy is, one could say, converging with popular opinion about the economy -- not collapsing, but now really putting a strain on people's lives in the aggregate in a different kind of way

Michael Caley reposted

Title inspired by one of my favorite Sportscenter commercial from back in the day.

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Michael Caley reposted

the replies are beautiful. brains like egg

Internet Archive@archive.org

An update from Brewster Kahle on today's outage.

Michael Caley reposted

Inject analysis like this straight into my veins...

Michael Caley@michaelcaley.bsky.social

new Expecting Goals blog! The new pace of play rules: they're working incredibly well to speed up play, but one of them may be working a little too well (and why no one's noticed yet) www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-...

I've seen people talking about this finding in the new NYT poll -- it seems like an outlier but it's really just a matter of arithmetic the 35 states with Senate races voted for Trump by over 7 points (it's a bad year!) +4 in Senate states ~= +10 nationally ~= NYT generic (+11)

there is perhaps no more powerful force in left-lib influencer circles than Audience Capture Miserablism

neuse river hag@neuseriverhag.bsky.social

youtubers, streamers, podcasters, etc are always on this beat bc they don't know how anything works & know that if they say something like this, their audiences will lap it up now & also 3 years later when they point to total gay commie revolution not happening and go "see? i was right!"