Mike Madowitz

[testing for Grainger causation]

Guess the opinion page wrong answers only 10/10 no notes etc

Last Econ data before midterms tomorrow:

If you missed yesterday's @rooseveltinstitute.org webinar on Fed reform, the recording is up on YouTube now. @claudia-sahm.bsky.social did an exceptional job moderating a discussion with @estruby.bsky.social, Christian Flores, and me on making the Federal Reserve more democratically accountable.

5 things to watch from the Federal Reserve's next meeting apnews.com/article/fede...

Expanded Judy Shelton Lane just dropped

Warsh has made a point of saying less. His Fed colleagues are speaking as much as they were a year ago “It’s probably the worst of all possible outcomes,” says @claudia-sahm.bsky.social. “Nobody can force him to talk for the committee. And frankly, he can’t force other committee members to shut up"

Everyone believes in a structural model til they’re in a reduced form submarine

“If you just used risk management and you looked at the data, they want to be hiking this week,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist. www.wsj.com/economy/cent... by @nicktimiraos.bsky.social

We're only halfway through this discussion, but it's already getting good...

Typically insughtful @liamdenning.bsky.social on the Chinese auto shock as a global overcapacity shock www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Peak evergreen.

This is a PPI sibling to CPI, calculated using producer prices for products that are directly sold for consumption.... This is brutal

I don’t think people have absorbed how much inflation momentum we’re looking at rn. Obvs a midterm disaster, but this is going to en a huge governing problem in 2026 globally

PPI: "Nearly half of the September rise in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be traced to a 21.0-percent increase in prices for diesel fuel." Broader PPI acceleration getting harder & harder to waive away www.bls.gov/news.release...

OK folks, and especially @besttrousers.bsky.social, here we go

Americans' pay is getting trounced by inflation

Absolutely brutal stat.

Efff

“Work more, make less” I’m not a political messaging guru, but I’m pretty sure this is a bad closing argument

Are we doing some kind of Kevin Hassett Bingo?

Real wages - 0.5% in September www.bls.gov/news.release... Negative over the year

typing too fast! 0.3% core!

Guess we're all pulling for El Niño to save us this winter Fuel oil up another 15% in September, 75% from last year

Woof, 0.6% CPI increase in a month 0.4% core Any ideas where this is coming from?

Are we doing some kind of Kevin Hassett Bingo?

Essential SNAP reading alert: @mazonusa.bsky.social has done a state-by-state administrative cost shift analysis: mazon.org/wp-content/u...

Not sure who needs to know this, but today is publication day for the new edition of my 2009 book "The Myth of the Rational Market," which features a rewritten introduction, a new chapter on recent developments in financial economics, a new epilogue, and — most important — a new cover typeface.

How many millions has Trump spent on this nonsens?

[Bessent failing to lower interest rates] Kevin Hassett: Hold my Beer!

Ben Glasner does great work!

Still can’t quite believe they blew up mathematics as a PR stunt to distract from a 40% revenue miss

Every night, thousands of Kyiv residents head down to the metro to protect themselves from Russian attacks. Many of them have probably gotten used to this. But it would be a shame if WE got used to this. ukraineinsights.substack.com/p/war-crimes...

ATTENTION! 🚨 Dallas Fed does an explainer on the latest oil price discourse!! → Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil

STUNNED, honored, and grateful that my new lab at Wharton has been selected as a Workplace Innovation Now (WIN) Challenge awardee! With the support of the WIN Challenge, we are officially launching the Wharton Workplace Futures Lab! The lab will study how to make workplaces work for working parents-

Increasing Black homeownership sounds like an easy fix for the racial wealth gap. But that assumes a housing market that treats every buyer the same. New research from @zraresearch.bsky.social breaks down three assumptions behind that idea and why they don't hold up.🧵

We're so excited to work with these brilliant residents!

Oh, it’s gonna be a cool one today?

ATL Fed has a lag, but this would be a welcomed reversal if it wins I aggregate

Some days I think about that decade+ we absolutely blew it on full employment & energy investments b/c #fixthedebt ppl were right in the 1990s & cocktail parties != Bayesian

3-1-6 just doesn’t quite have the same ring

Made my WSJ debut calling for more guardrails on Trump Accounts. Treasury says kids will be auto-enrolled (great!), but will still have to claim the money (bad!), and they're overruling Congress's intent by allowing contributions of individual stocks (bad AND weird!). www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Who could have seen it coming!

Been clear since the first hike this was coming. As long as markets keep funneling cash to AI, the rest of the economy is going to eat the cost of getting inflation under control

"Give farmers' fuel to truckers"' is definitely giving deck chairs on the Titanic Regardless, I'wouldn't get on a plane to Nebraska to announce it

Reminder that the aggregate slowdown in wage growth this month is masking some key differences With job switcher wage growth diverging over the summer, this month may paint an even grimmer picture for most people in low-hire-low-fire land (we'll know more when we get microdata)