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@orcma.bsky.social

Underground economist. Legalize it!* *trade, immigration, dense mixed use walkable neighborhoods

177 followers443 following1.1K posts

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@orcma.bsky.social

Outside options matter!

Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social

Low layoffs are, obviously, good news for workers. But this doesn't look like a labor market where workers have a ton of leverage. Start with the obvious one: Nominal wage growth has been steadily softening.

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@orcma.bsky.social

Will never be a fan of using equity values to try to estimate economic fundamentals like this, but implied productivity gains seems especially sus.

NBER@nber.org

AI's economic impact? By the end of 2025, markets priced in 32.6 percent higher software engineering productivity, implying 3.6–6.5 percent higher GDP. Both more than doubled by mid-2026, from Alex Blumenfeld, @JADHazell, @ChenLian92, and Andreas Schaab www.nber.org/papers/w35793

nber.orgThe Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering ChannelFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers,…

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Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social

All current policy is bad for housing ...

Bill McBride@calculatedrisk.bsky.social

“Builders also continue to face higher material costs, rising gas and diesel prices and persistent labor shortages. In some markets, builders report that increased immigration enforcement is discouraging legal workers from reporting to job sites.”

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David Wessel
@davidmwessel.bsky.social

Harvard's Gabe Chodorow-Reich reminds Kevin Warsh that academic & Fed economists have long been working on the questions he is asking about inflation, data, etc. Also, he notes, there is no task force on how the Fed should respond to a large and growing federal debt. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/o...

nytimes.comOpinion | At the Fed, Kevin Warsh’s Silence Speaks Volumes (Gift Article)The success of his chairmanship may rest on an issue that sits outside the traditional purview of monetary policy: the nation’s ongoing fiscal deficits.
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@orcma.bsky.social

Not quite true: the ~0.5pp drop in Jan 2026 was a revision that dates back to 2020, but isn’t incorporated into the official series

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

SCHWAB: “.. The labor force participation rate has given up all gains since February 2021.” #LFPR

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Justin Fenton
@justinfenton.bsky.social

A Columbia woman has been feeding vultures on her property to the tune of as much as 200 pounds of chicken per day; county health officials are taking action, reports @lillianreed.bsky.social www.thebanner.com/community/lo...

thebanner.comVultures flock to a Columbia neighborhood where woman won’t stop feeding them raw meatVultures have descended on the Glenmont community in Columbia, where a woman won’t stop feeding them raw meat despite repeated orders.

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Daniele Girardi
@dgirardi.bsky.social

🚨New version (1.0.3) of *lpdid* STATA command, which implements Local Projections Difference-in-Differences🚨 ssc install lpdid, replace The update fixes 2 bugs that could arise when using pmd() option in datasets with missing values or repeated oneoff treatments. No change outside those settings.

Daniele Girardi@dgirardi.bsky.social

Our Local Projections Difference-in-Differences (LP-DiD) paper is out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. LP-DiD is a convenient, flexible and computationally fast framework for estimating DiD using simple well-specified regressions.... [1/4]

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@orcma.bsky.social

We’re so cooked

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

WSJ: “.. The president calls Warsh in bursts, the people said—several times in a stretch of days .. .. maintaining a line of communication between a president and a central bank chief that departs from recent precedent.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

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Kimberly Clausing
@kclausing.bsky.social

Out today: part 2 of my blog with Maurice Obstfeld on why so-called "optimal" tariffs are not optimal. Within, we discuss the latest research on tariff incidence, and what we've learned from the Trump tariffs so far...

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com

Part 2: One of the biggest impediments to "optimal" tariffs improving national welfare is that it is US households & businesses who have borne most of the burden of Trump's tariffs in practice. Read here:

piie.comWho pays for tariffs? Insights from recent researchThe Trump administration has mounted many varied claims to support its trade war, but a central argument is that foreigners, not US citizens, pay the price for tariffs. As discussed in our first blog,...
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@orcma.bsky.social

what.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

HANNITY: Elon Musk talked about Americans not even needing to save for your retirement like we have historically because of the abundance AI will create. Do you believe that? BESSENT: I do, but I think I would change the timeline. Elon is so far ahead of the curve

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CineCalendar
@cinecalendar.bsky.social

Jul 26th 1971 - Inspector William Armstrong interviewed a man who claimed that a person he previously worked with, Arthur Leigh Allen, might be the Zodiac killer. 📽️📅 Depicted in Zodiac (2007)

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Boze Herrington, Library Owl
@sketchesbyboze.bsky.social

By far the funniest moment in Homer’s Odyssey is when Circe says, “Shall we have sex?” and Odysseus says, “You just turned all my men into pigs. You have the GALL to think I would sleep with you? Of course I will. Absolutely. But don’t do any weird spells”

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Matt Darling
@besttrousers.bsky.social

I have a new piece out for @searchlightinst.bsky.social! Want to make housing cheaper? Stop taxing construction so heavily for being a volatile industry Our unemployment insurance system quietly makes it more expensive to build. Here’s how: (1/12) www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/the...

searchlightinstitute.orgThe Hidden Tax on Blue-Collar Workers and Building in AmericaThe unemployment insurance system has a design flaw that penalizes the construction industry, leading to fewer workers and lower productivity. Over time, that means less – and more expensive – housing...
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@orcma.bsky.social

Crucial to read contemporary Tyler Cowen as the confessions of a man who knows he has fallen but cannot help himself. He’s lost his moral grounding and curiousity, and become a parrot for social media and the right wing griftosphere.

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@orcma.bsky.social

In this case, his self-mourning is transposed into a regretful nostalgia he supposes the reader should feel. We get it, Tyler, your existential crisis is all-consuming but it is in fact yours and not ours. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

marginalrevolution.comWhit Stillman's *Metropolitan* (that was then, this is now) - Marginal REVOLUTIONIt is fun to watch/rewatch this 1990 movie circa 2026.  It is about New York City debutantes (CT and the Hamptons too), and how they interact with each other.  The movie is set a bit earlier in time, ...

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Michael Andersen
@andersem.bsky.social

Replying to @andersem.bsky.social

The above does not vary by residential zone within an urban growth area. Aside from the minimum density if applicable, there'd be no upper or lower limits on height, unit count, home size, building size, lot size, roof pitch, lot coverage, or impervious area. Trying to figure out what to think.