ZoneOfCollapse

The more you know. The global oceans are warming by the equivalent heat of about one million Hiroshima bombs per day. If wishes were fishes, they'd all be suffocating about now.

This graphic charts the global surface temperatures, assuming the year starts on July 1 and ends on June 30, emphasizing the change in the yearly global low rather than the yearly global high. Thanks to "Mark Dissents" for the idea.

Breaking News! Code Yikes! Antarctic sea-ice extent is having a moment, now second lowest on record for the day and 3.78 standard deviations below the 1991-2020 average. What's going on down there?

Well kiddos, it's a wrap. This year's global maximum temperature was 17.05°C on July 25th. This was the 3rd highest maximum on record, behind 2023 (17.07°C) and 2024 (17.15°C). The Climate Casino is taking the Over on a maximum of 17.25°C in 2027.

The latest update to the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast now includes the August 1 data point (2.58°C above the 1991-2020 baseline) and projections through May, 2027. The forecast currently peaks at 4.4°C in November.

This is bad

Thanks, @zekehausfather.com h You're the best. I'll take the Over on 3.6°C for $1.

Breaking News! Code UFB!!! As of July 13th, the global ocean sea-surface temperature has set a daily record for the 42nd day in a row. Yesterday's global sea-surface temperatures is 0.10°C hotter than any previous July 13th on record. Here's the breakdown, by decade:

That 4.2°C is not the peak of the peak forecasts, mind you.

Do you have 'Godzilla El Nino derangement syndrome' (GENDS)?

Breaking News! Code Meh! June 2026 came in as the second warmest on record since 1940 at 1.39°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, second only to 2024 at 1.50°C above the baseline.

This is absolutely terrifying The Nino 3.4 forecast temperature anomaly mean is now at 4C, when even the biggest historical super ninos have seen less than 3C I really have no idea what this is going to bring over the next 12 months, but it will be very, very, grim

This graphic shows the average global surface temperature, by decade. Do you see a trend?

Your 'moment of doom' for June 30, 2026 ~ Can't live without it. "... plankton abundance is declining across vast swathes of the North East Atlantic—a region covering the Atlantic Ocean from Portugal to Norway, and the entirety of the North Sea." ecomagazine.com/news/researc...

Breaking News! Code Yikes! Global sea-surface temperatures averaged the hottest on record in June of this year, beating the previous record set way back in 2024. The Climate 8-ball is taking a steambath.

Not to be outdone, that bratty little area of the Pacific ocean known as "Niño 3.4" also set a new record high average sea-surface temperature for the month of June, crushing the previous record set in June, 2015 by over 0.5°C.

Death toll exceeds 20,000 across Europe in June 2026 heat wave Christopher Callahan zenodo.org/records/2108...

Having lost PIOMAS Arctic volume/thickness updates, I'm now looking to Denmark. The issue here is that they don't include the record low year of 2017, giving the false impression that this year is a record low, which it may or may not be. I don't know. polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-a...

UPDATE: The likelihood that humans will go extinct by 2100 is 80%. "Under current trends, we hit 3°C within 25 years - meaning that avoiding extinction, not just collapse, would require population and consumption reduction beginning immediately, not post-2050" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Hothouse alert! "At the same time, research on climate tipping points, amplifying feedbacks, and cascading interactions shows that several Earth system components may be closer to destabilizing than once believed." www.cell.com/one-earth/fu...

Your 'moment of doom' for Feb. 18, 2026 ~ Kakistocracies! "It is the paradox of our age that anti-green backlash is sweeping the West ... just as the evidence hardens and as we move closer to runaway feedback loops that ought to scare the wits out of us." www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

Here are the daily color stripes for the global sea-surface temperature anomaly, up-to-date through Jan. 19, 2026. You can see the easily spot the cooling trend in 2025, but with a coming El Nino, the future is maroon.

The 1991-2020 climate doesn't exist anymore 😟

2025 was Earth's 3rd-warmest year on record yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/2025...

2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹 "In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming." + #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003... + Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn

Glory be to Sol on this day, whose Light no longer diminishes but grows stronger and lingering. May your path be enlightened.

The December update shows that El Nino is now the most likely ENSO state towards late Summer in 2026. In case you need a reminder -- that's when a lot of absorbed ocean heat concentrated in the tropical Western Pacific gets dumped into the atmosphere. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

The latest devastating forecast, which takes account of what is actually happening in the real world - in terms of both climate and climate policy - to provide a more realistic view of what we can expect I have said it before - we are in deep, deep, sh*t worldcrunch.com/focus/green-...

10 years after the Paris Agreement, we have reached a '3-year average global temperature anomaly of +1.5°C in 2 or more datasets'! And we can't blame El Niño for this, as ENSO was on average negative during this period. The Paris Agreement was doomed from the start..

One last update to the daily-color stripes for 2025, with data through the end of November, 2025. The last day of November in this graphic recorded 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.

Breaking News! Code Yikes! November kept on going where October left off, once again reaching an average anomaly of 1.55°C over the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, making November the third warmest since records began, and likely the third warmest in the last 120,000 years.

“A successful business today is defined by the same criteria as a virus: how fast it can manage to create more of itself, regardless of the cost to humans or the planet” From my book BEYOND THE PETRI DISH

“This corrosive system has cleverly convinced us all that we can’t live without it, when in fact we will die precisely because of it”

Arctic sea-ice extent on November 30th was about 400,000 square kilometers below the previous record low for the date, set in 2016.

“Hundreds of thousands of years into their history, humans are still trying to define happiness, forgetting that they were already happy when they appeared on this planet long ago” open.substack.com/pub/georgets...

From cigarettes to artificial intelligence, humans learned the hard way which innovations are beneficial and which need to be tolerated like a chronic disease. Civilization is an experiment, and we are mad scientists: too risk-taking, and always willing to be guinea pigs in our own research.

And just like that, Arctic sea-ice extent is now over 200,000 square kilometers below the previous daily record for November 28th.

“We need societies that are built from the bottom up, not top down. Only this way can they be more resilient” open.substack.com/pub/georgets...

The COPs in a nutshell

Breaking News! Code Yikes! It's official, 2025 recorded the second lowest sea-ice extent maximum on record, with only 2024 seeing a lower maximum. And 2016 holds third place, with a maximum about 17,000 km² more than 2025. Will 2026 see a new record low maximum? Stay tuned!

"All mention of fossil fuels, by far the largest contributor to climate change, has been dropped from the draft deal" I don't wan't to say I told you so but..... To be honest ANYONE could have predicted this As I have been saying for YEARS - the COP process is dead www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

"It's like talking to robots..... Some are saying: “Why even come to Cop?”’ Indeed www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Is the Atlantic Ocean circulation close to tipping? Hear the latest science as I presented it last month at the ATLAS25 event in Helsinki. Let me know if anything is unclear, or if you see good reasons why your government shouldn't immediately act on this. 🌊 youtu.be/ULJXqOZuY-8

Great to see NASA GISS back online! Using a 1880-1920 pre-industrial reference baseline (as preferred by @drjamesehansen.bsky.social et al.), 2025 will be close to +1.5°C. That's with the tropical Pacific causing some relative cooling (La Niña)!

The RATE of CO₂ increase keeps increasing. It's not exponential (like the @clubofrome.org 1972 'Limit's to growth' projection), but there is little indication of the growth rate stabilizing (let alone decreasing) any time soon either.

Breaking News! Code UFB!!! The three-year running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly now exceeds 1.50°C over the pre-industrial baseline, as of November 8, 2025. Are you there, COP 30? It's me, the Paris Agreement.

Once upon a time in the Arctic, a long long time ago, there was this magical substance called ice ...