Perspective on Risk

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Oct. 27, 2026 (Productivity & AI)The Wrong Kind of g; Taxing Labor Income When Labor Income Is Declining

Perspective on Risk reposted

TED 🇺🇸

@epicureandealmaker.bsky.social

Citizens United was a dagger to the heart of liberal democracy. It must be overturned.

The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social

The contribution limit for an individual is $3,500. Elon Musk, a government contractor, is trying to purchase Congress. Billionaires are smothering our elections for their personal gain. Get big money out of politics.

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Oct. 23, 2026 (Banking & Supervision (& Cheese))#1 Risk - Cybersecurity; More Starling; Debanking; UBS Wants Out; Supervising Banks Use of AI; Using AI in Bank Supervision; Don Kohn on Bank Liquidity Requirements & the Fed B/S; Agentic Bank Runs

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Nov. 19, 2026 (Measuring the Fiscal Capacity Shock Absorber)How Much Fiscal Headroom Is Left?; Wearing Out Since 1970; Duration Is the Fiscal Variable; Who Holds the Debt Now; Pettis Was Right About Japan;

Perspective on Risk reposted

Conor Sen

@conorsen.bsky.social

Elon Musk is single-handedly funding the Ken Paxton campaign:

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Oct. 15, 2026 (AI Needs Chief Risk Officers)The developments at OpenAI, and to a lesser extent Anthropic, strongly suggest they need to learn the risk management lessons finance learned in the 1990s.

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Oct. 9, 2026 (Supervisory Non-Alignment)Fed VC for Supervision Bowman has previewed a reorganization of bank supevision at the Fed. She should go further.

Federal Reserve VC for Supervision Bowman has begun to discuss more concretely a reorganization of the Fed's bank supervision responsibilities. As a 20 year former Fed supervisor, I weigh in with a feww thoughts. She needs to be bolder. perspectiveonrisk.substack.com/p/perspectiv...

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Sept. 25, 2026 (Starling Review)The 2nd draft of the Fed’s handling of the SVB failure is only one side of the story, and this likely taints its findings. Decision rights and policy accountability matter more than the reported ‘risk

The Starling Review is tainted by being only one side of the story; none of the FRBSF personnel were interviewed before the findings were derived. perspectiveonrisk.substack.com/p/perspectiv...

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Sept. 18, 2026 (AI Developments & Risk)Some thinking about, and frameworks for, regulating AI and the parallels with financial regulation.

20 Sept

@fareedzakaria.bsky.social I enjoyed your AI regulation discussion. I’m a former Fed bank supervisor. You may enjoy this post I wrote. perspectiveonrisk.substack.com/p/perspectiv...

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Sept. 19, 2026 (SVB Post-Mortem Redux)They Knew; We Have Been Told This Before; Decision Rights Are The Disease; The Tailoring Explanation, and Quarles; Right Diagnosis, Wrong Medicine; What The Review Didn’t Ask; Twitter Didn’t Kill SVB;

19 Sept

Fed Gov Bowman previewed her new SVB post-mortem. I agree with much of her diagnosis, but there are still many unanswered questions. perspectiveonrisk.substack.com/p/perspectiv...

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Sept. 18, 2026 (AI Developments & Risk)Some thinking about, and frameworks for, regulating AI and the parallels with financial regulation.

18 Sept

The issues around AI involve a principal-agent problem wrapped up in a Prisoners' Dilemma. In this piece I discuss the parallels between financial supervision and the five layers of risk management needed for the emergent AI models. perspectiveonrisk.substack.com/p/perspectiv...

Perspective on Risk reposted

MeidasTouch

@meidastouch.com

17 Sept

🚨 NEWS: Katie Phang just scored another major development in her lawsuit seeking the full Epstein Files. After Attorney General Todd Blanche blew a critical deadline and argued he didn’t need to respond, Judge Emmet Sullivan has now ordered him to file an answer by September 24.

14 Sept

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Sept. 14, 2026 (Non-Linearities)AI, Sovereign Debt, Climate, Fiscal Capaity & Demograaphics in one easy to understand Venn!

31 Aug

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Aug. 31, 2026 (AI @ Jackson Hole)From Asymetrical Information to Asymetrical Understanding

Perspective on Risk reposted

Tom Hearden

@followtheh.bsky.social

28 Aug

Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social

The National Park Service has been quietly working to fulfill an unprecedented directive from Trump officials: Parcel off a corner of Yosemite National Park to give to a private developer

notus.orgTrump’s Quietly Working to Give Part of Yosemite to a Private DeveloperThe National Park Service is under pressure to make an unprecedented deal that cedes a quarter-mile strip of the park.

27 Aug

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Aug. 27, 2026 (Capital Hardness)What is capital? What is capital arbitrage? Is it illegal? Is it uneconomic? What are the real issues?

24 Aug

perspectiveonrisk.substack.comPerspective on Risk - Aug. 24, 2026 (Duration Constraints)Greg Ip cites work by Lustig and Caballero in his “The Treasury Market’s Coveted Status as a Safe Haven Is Fading” (WSJ). I take a dive into the papers and they revise some of my previous thinking.

thebulwark.comTrump Is Walloping Construction Businesses. The Industry Stays Quiet.Raids on work sites. Roofers under siege. But builders keep mum.

8 Aug

The One True Cup

Perspective on Risk reposted

Catherine Rampell

@crampell.bsky.social

19 Dec 2025

“It was violent. There’s blood all over the house. It’s insane,” the homeowner, who is a U.S. citizen, told me. “It’s complete lawlessness. How does the government have impunity to jump into my home without a warrant?” www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-is-w...

Perspective on Risk reposted

Catherine Rampell

@crampell.bsky.social

28 July

The homeowner I interviewed in this piece has now sued the feds for entering his private property without a warrant www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bOg...

youtube.comFederal Agents Raided His Home—Live on RingYouTube video by Institute for Justice

Catherine Rampell@crampell.bsky.social

thebulwark.comTrump Is Walloping Construction Businesses. The Industry Stays Quiet.Raids on work sites. Roofers under siege. But builders keep mum.

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - July 28, 2026 (China Wrote Down Its Plan to Run the World)Three documents landed: Beijing’s white paper on global governance, the G7’s reply, and a CFR essay on why rules-based orders fail.

28 July

Do you want to know China's plans to run the world? Here it is. open.substack.com/pub/perspect...

23 July

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - July 23, 2026 (Three Clocks)Financial globalization is fragmenting fast and slow at the same time. Then 2025 revealed a third clock I hadn't accounted for.

17 July

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - July 17, 2026 (Global Trends 2045 - A More Constrained World)Since Trump/Gabbard killed the Global Trends report, I thought I'd have Claude write one for us. It did a pretty damn good job.

8 July

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - July 8, 2026 (Dollar Developments 3 - Erosion)The dollar’s safety premium is already pricing some probability of a regime that has not yet arrived.

1 July

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - July 2, 2026 (Dollar Developments 1 - Sinodollar)Sinodollars amd Petroyuan

27 June

open.substack.comA Demographic Microfoundation for the Bond–Currency Comovement Cross-SectionA new working paper by Pierre De Leo (Maryland), Lorena Keller (Texas A&M), Giuliano Simoncelli (Maryland), Mauricio Villamizar Villegas (Banco de la República), and Tomás Williams (GWU), Foreign Inve...

26 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 26, 2026 - Stress TestsEveryone Passed. That Tells You Almost Nothing.

Perspective on Risk reposted

Justin Wolfers

@justinwolfers.bsky.social

24 June

There are plenty of food delivery apps competing for your business.⁣ ⁣ So why is delivery still so expensive?⁣ ⁣ The answer starts with a simple idea: competition only works when consumers can compare prices.⁣ ⁣ https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/convenience-has-a-price-but-they

23 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 23, 2026 (Globalization & Blocs #5)If the sorting continues and the mismatch between where goods trade and where money flows keeps widening, what is the specific mechanism by which the financial side eventually gives way?

22 June

open.substack.comPlender Is Right About the Chokepoint. Wrong About the Demographics.John Plender cites Pradhan-Goodhart to argue the US will supply fewer safe assets to the world. The demand side of the same model says something different.

18 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 18, 2026 (AI / LLM)"Do androids dream? Rick asked himself. Evidently; that's why they occasionally kill their employers and flee here. A better life, without servitude."

Perspective on Risk reposted

CUDDY

@ptcontagion.bsky.social

22 May

This Republican…Rep Mary Miller…Proudly Quoted… Hitler.

plannedparenthoodaction.org“A Victory for White Life”: U.S. Rep. Mary Miller Spotlights the Values of Some Abortion OpponentsRemarks like this allude to the so-called “great replacement” — a white nationalist conspiracy theory that inspired mass shooters in Buffalo, Pittsburgh, El Paso, and New Zealand

Perspective on Risk reposted

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

15 June

“.. his team wanted to test how far the emboldened president’s authority could be pushed, setting off previously unreported internal struggles over where the limits should be.” @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/u...

13 June

open.substack.comChina Is Building a Fortress Against Its Own FutureBeijing's new outbound investment controls make geopolitical sense. The demographics say they're self-defeating

12 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 12, 2026 (A Bank Sup & Reg Post)If You Want Beef Then Bring The Ruckus ...

Perspective on Risk reposted

MeidasTouch

@meidastouch.com

7 June

Knicks fans are furious that Trump’s attendance is causing major disruptions ahead of Game 3 of the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden. These are just some of the comments on a Knicks post informing fans that they will need to arrive at least two hours before the game because of his attendance.

Perspective on Risk reposted

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

6 June

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has issued a pardon to Stephen Buyer, a former Republican congressman from Indiana who served nearly two years in prison for making illegal stock trades based on inside information after he left office. apnews.com/article/buye...

6 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 6, 2026 (Globalization & Blocs #3)The Trade-Capital Divergence

5 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 5, 2026 (Globalization & Blocs #2)How countries pick sides; What the literature tell us

5 June

open.substack.comDollar Debts, Yuan Revenues: Testing the BRS Paper Against Our Demographic FrameworkA new NBER working paper formalizes the currency-mismatch problem in Chinese overseas lending. Here is what the data says.

4 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 4, 2026 (Globalization & Blocs #1)The first of 4-5 posts on how blocs form, and the evolution of geopolitics/globalization through the bloc lense from 2004 to 2044.

Perspective on Risk reposted

NY Times Pitchbot

@nytpitchbot.bsky.social

3 June

“I’m Kid Rock.” “I’m Naomi Wolf.” “I’m Kanye West.” “I’m Matt Taibbi.” “I’m Catturd. Those stories, plus Rob Schneider, tonight on 60 Minutes.”

1 June

open.substack.comPerspective on Risk - June 1, 2026 (CRE Part III)A Fed Economist Answered the Question. Honestly, He Did It Better Than I Could.

28 May

open.substack.comFive Things the IMF Should Consider As They Revise Their External Balance AssessmentAs the IMF’s 4th methodological review of the EBA begins, here is what 100+ country panels say about the framework’s demographic specification.

24 May