Plaidula

Plaidula

@plaidula.bsky.social

Himbo, strongman, G L O B E Chapter Lead of the Twin Cities New Liberals. Pro-liberalism, anti-"I'm too good for everything" cynicism.

1.3K followers773 following1.1K posts

My Insta has a lot of Malfoid on it now (partially my fault for scrolling through a few comics), and I can tell the right has already lost this one because there are basically no comics I've seen where the pureblood supremacists are the good guys who convert Harry to their side, but plenty contrary.

I tried to explain the concept of Malfoid as a right-wing cultural movement to some queer, non-terminally-online folks and they got to laugh very hard at the entire idea.

Your Scary Ad Here@cooluser354.bsky.social

Malfoid is quietly becoming a symbol of the West's cultural counter-revolution.

It feels hard to focus on things lately, in the sense that we're at the convergence of several major contingency points in history. We're at the precipice of World War, catastrophic finance-driven economic collapse, a worldwide revival of fascism and ethnic violence, but none of these are certain.

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Fascism and should-be-dead theories of ethnic superiority and violence feel like they're having a comeback, but tons of these movements are amplified by US Tech-Fascists (might be about to get their teeth kicked in) and Russian Disinformation Operations (would collapse with the regime/money).

So every day I look at my list of personal/professional to-do items and I'm just like "there are decent odds none of this will matter in a few months" and while I am an adult and I do the things, my attention is not exactly focused on any of it, in a way that feels different from even 2020.

It feels hard to focus on things lately, in the sense that we're at the convergence of several major contingency points in history. We're at the precipice of World War, catastrophic finance-driven economic collapse, a worldwide revival of fascism and ethnic violence, but none of these are certain.

Will Russia's invasion of Ukraine start World War 3? Feels like it depends on if Trump actually succeeds in bailing out Putin or if Ukraine's increased quality of command and Russia's unsustainable losses and logistics issues cause a 1917-style collapse, dissuading other would-be aggressors.

Are we about to have a new Depression? If AI bets don't pan out on huge debts + global bonds melt down after decades of overspending, maybe. Alternatively, even barring the loftiest promises, the tech could have a small contraction or reach enough value to avoid that, and govs could muddle through.

I mean, are US defense stocks tumbling because the Democrats, or are they tumbling because we just gave every non-US buyer of US military tech not just a reason but a straight up *imperative* to diversify and invest in their own military production?

Plaidula reposted

These are reasonable and they absolutely should be thought through carefully, but all such negatives have to be weighed against assessment of how bad the current Court is. It’s possible to concede essentially all the downsides and still conclude it’s the lesser evil because the status quo is worse.

Steve Vladeck@stevevladeck.bsky.social

Calls for expanding #SCOTUS are entirely (and increasingly) understandable. But as today's "One First" explains, there are at least four difficult questions that those who support expansion should have to answer—especially as compared to other possible reforms: www.stevevladeck.com/p/bonus-257-...

Contrarian take, but for as much as I think Tillis is a coward trying too little too late and the GOP should have nothing but suffering until we beat them so far into the dirt we don't need to bury the party when it dies, I think this is good and I hope he succeeds.

Christine Zhu@christinezhu.bsky.social

U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis: "The election's in 19 days. Twenty days from now, I’ll be reaching out to Republicans who aren’t crazy and try to figure out how we recover from what I think are almost certain losses in this election cycle.” #ncpol

Of course, this pitch sounds very different when the median voter is conveniently imagining that, since you said 5 contradictory things you might do, you'll do the things they like and not the stuff they don't like, as opposed to when you're the actual president and you keep doing things they HATE.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "I didn't go to Congress. Remember Sleepy Joe? 'Oh, if they would give me approval in Congress!' You're not gonna get approval. You just do it. You're the president."

Plaidula reposted

Replying to @ryanlcooper.com

a big reason (though not the only one) that so many elite institutions capitulated to Trump immediately in early 2025 is they had learned through long experience that Dems are too chickenshit to punish them for basically any reason. but things can change!

Plaidula reposted

Replying to @bretdevereaux.bsky.social

Though, cards on the table, in my ideal world we would have shifted those interceptor stocks and then told Ukraine to absolutely keep blowing the crap out of Russian oil infrastructure until every last Russian soldier was either off Ukrainian soil or buried in it.

Plaidula reposted

Replying to @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social

Let me try this: Maybe Trump campaigning, stealing from taxpayers to put out ads, and trying to bribe voters; Vance begging people to give them more of a chance; and Republicans spending big in TX, KS, SC, etc. is because they *don’t* have a good plan to overturn electoral loss, not because they do.

Plaidula reposted

the reason “AI will create so much abundance we will have a utopian society” rhetoric falls so flat is that the people building it will never, ever share their bounty unless it is taken from them and we all know it

Gianmarco Soresi@gianmarcosoresi.bsky.social

Man who won’t give his employees piss breaks claims many piss breaks on the horizon

Plaidula reposted

You could replace Biden with anyone you can think of and they aren’t going to be able to fundamentally restructure the judiciary with the narrowest legislative majority in American history. Biden would have preferred larger majorities! He’s a New Deal guy!

Vituperative Erb@vituperativeerb.bsky.social

The blame for Trump 2 lies with voters! That’s a bummer! But you gotta accept that!

Increasingly convinced that like 80% of issues map onto one axis: Mom vs Drunk Uncle. HR Ladies? Moms. Founders? Drunk Uncles. Wine Aunts are Moms, despite the alcohol, while Alpha Male Abstainers are Drunk Uncles despite pretending to believe in moderation/self control.

Vikram Bath@vikrambath.bsky.social

If you use highlighters to get good grades, that’s like taking steroids for the Olympics

Wanted 3 things tonight: 1. Judkins gets me a bunch of fantasy points 2. Rodgers gets sacked a lot and has a bad time 3. Watson gets sacked a lot and has a bad time 2/3 ain't bad

I probably listen to significantly more AI music than the average person, but that's because a lot of AI music is the perfect thing to put on while digging through code and spreadsheets specifically because it's reached a middle point where the mechanics are solid but the emotional valence is low.

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social

But then there is functional at, the purpose of which is purely to have an impact on the viewer/listener. For the purest form of this, think a company logo. It's 'art' but generally it doesn't express anyone's feelings. It is instead meant to be recognized, meant to trigger certain emotions.

Plaidula reposted

I'm sorry no, voters aren't getting a pass on this one.

Andrew Lawrence@ndrew.bsky.social

show me a democrat that ran in 24 on a humane and compassionate response to the republican plan of ethnic cleansing. there were none

Plaidula reposted

Replying to @bretdevereaux.bsky.social

In practice though, it really seems like we're moving towards, "AI is a productivity tool that enhances the employee you have, but often doesn't really let you replace them, so much as get more out of them, in some fields. In others, it's mostly useless so far."

Plaidula reposted

“The base” means core voters, not those furthest from center who denounce the party and say don’t vote. Every sign says the Democratic base is very energized: party registration, likely voter screens, primary and special election turnout, generic ballot, which states are competitive, you name it.

Plaidula reposted

Ossoff: "The draft-dodging commander in chief builds a monument to himself while plunging us deeper into a war he doesn't know how to end or win"

Plaidula reposted

Replying to @loudpenitent.bsky.social

I'm not even stating a side on the latest Discourse - I'm simply saying: the goal of this shit published from the Beltway punditocracy, a group we KNOW loves Republicans & wants them to win, is to get YOU, personally, to despair & see enemies everywhere, to convince you the real war is against Dems

I continue to beat my specific hobby horse that this is generational. Boomers/Gen X are convinced GOP are better on economy because of vibes/memories from the 70s-80s. Millennials do not trust the GOP after W Bush and the GFC, Gen Z is having that same experience under Trump.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

New in PN: Are voters finally realizing that GOP presidents are disasters? "The last 3 R presidents have handed their D successors an economic catastrophe, & the last 3 Ds have had to do their best to clean it up. Why don’t Ds ever say that? I think it would make a difference" — @mjtoma.bsky.social

I know it's popular to meme on the idea that eventually the natural replacement of Boomers/Gen X with Millennials/Gen Z will be bad for the GOP, but by the numbers and with the exception of Trump's mysterious ability to never be considered obviously lying, this is still the case.

This is the most irksome part of watching people drag the founding fathers for "not anticipating this." You can anticipate all you want, but if the volk want ruination to cure their affluenza, there is no possible system to prevent them from getting it, including "authoritarianism, but for good"

ryan cooper@ryanlcooper.com

"Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation. No theoretical checks--no form of government can render us secure. To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, is a chimerical idea."

I mean, Trump is successfully driving enormous numbers of farmers to bankruptcy and the Democratic coalition is probably only getting less reliant on farming communities in both the primaries and general elections moving forward. The pro-farming, pro-rural consensus may be coming to an end.

Mikhail Gorbaechev@mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social

Dems should absolutely kill corn ethanol and divert the spending to solar subsidies.

As I'm pretty sure Ed Zitron has noted (and I don't buy everything he says on AI, but I buy a lot of his financial analysis), the timeline in which all of these data centers need to be built, operational at stated capacity (including power use), and paying back debtors make this quite bad.

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

“.. Some are viewing it as an 'oh shit' moment," an AI industry advocate told POLITICO. "Others are brushing it off like it's nothing, and those people have to get their heads out of their asses. This could go south for them, fast." @politico.com www.politico.com/news/2026/08...

If data center building companies get caught up in years of legal blockades with the various powers NIMBYs have weaponized for a generation, with no cover from elected officials because they are universally toxic, they can't sell compute to the big AI labs who can't pass that compute on as a product

And the current issue for AI companies is that while there is a market for these capabilities, that market needs to scale quadratically in the near future for the various interlocking debt mechanisms not to explode, taking insurance and private equity (then a lot of the economy) with them.

Plaidula reposted

It’s been extremely funny to watch the “always following, always angry about politics” website predictably crash out over this. You guys do realize Jeffries has run circles around Johnson, right? He’s not the most inspiring pol but he is actually quite good at the job. Sorry.

Sam@samd.bsky.social

maybe a hot take but my hunch here is that this is jared sucking up to Hakeem, not the other way around jared is not particularly smart, but he is one of the only ones in Trump’s circle who can actually tell which way the wind is blowing because everyone else is a depraved cultist or just an idiot

Plaidula reposted

I want to expand on this in a short thread. Fascism sucks. It is also not going away: it is an effectively permanent part of modern representative politics because it is an effectively permanent part of human nature. We have to be prepared to push back against it, basically forever.

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social

That said, I think at this point, we can conclude that fascism is a latent political force in basically every country, to a greater or lesser degree and so you need to be thinking, "what if my country goes fascist? what if a neighboring country does?" and plan for how to avoid or deal with that.

Plaidula reposted

Replying to @bretdevereaux.bsky.social

We lived like that - brutal, slavery-and-genocide beggar-thy-neighbor competition for resources in which suspicion and violence towards outsiders was a key survival skill - for many tens of thousands of years before we even developed farming. We created culture for it. We *evolved* for it.

Different analysis frame: Boomers and people who remember the 70s have dominated electoral politics since the 1980s, and we may very well be about to swing the other direction, similar to how New Deal voters dominated an entire generation before the Boomers grew in electoral prominence.

Toby Buckle@polphilpod.bsky.social

the left was blamed for stagflation in the 70s & has been less trusted on the economy ever since the right has been catastrophically wrong about climate change, financial deregulation, multiple wars, & immigration control & it's always forgotten by the next election

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And when you look at the history of US politics, Millennials are basically locked in on "Dems good, GOP bad unless otherwise proven" until we kick it. The GOP/conservative plan was basically to assume Gen Z would be a conservative generation, but Trump II almost certainly blew that up completely.

At best, Gen Z (men in particular) becomes another Gen X-style generation that is tuned out and vaguely anti-social in policy preferences, but there is no world in which that math makes up for the loss of the Boomers and the shift to re-urbanization without additional gains in other demos.

Different analysis frame: Boomers and people who remember the 70s have dominated electoral politics since the 1980s, and we may very well be about to swing the other direction, similar to how New Deal voters dominated an entire generation before the Boomers grew in electoral prominence.

Toby Buckle@polphilpod.bsky.social

the left was blamed for stagflation in the 70s & has been less trusted on the economy ever since the right has been catastrophically wrong about climate change, financial deregulation, multiple wars, & immigration control & it's always forgotten by the next election

Consider that Boomers were a majority of the electorate from basically 1984 to 2012, then a plurality since. So the default of a majority of the electorate has been, essentially, "Reagan good and GOP like Reagan, Dems bad unless otherwise proven." But now consider that Millennials have the opposite.

Millennials are growing in electoral prominence as the Boomers recede, with the (correct) overall impression that the GOP loves wars and crashing the economy, while Dems just want to actually invest in social services and not do pogroms for queer people and immigrants.