AdotSad

The last 24 hours I lurked on Twitter more than anytime since I quit it, and one thing dawned on me - I think there are a lot of libs who actually just enjoy "the fight" .. there is something cathartic about dunking or replying to a conservative making a dumb point, and you obviously lose that here

I wonder how much damage on the polling industry was caused by Trump trying to murder Ann Seltzer

My personal benchmarks for the midterms: Net < 3 senate seats: failure, I will never believe a poll again Net 3 senate seats: disappointing since it probably locks us into 40 years of Alito/Thomas replacements Net 4 senate seats: mission accomplished, no complaints Net 5+ senate seats: nirvana

Think I trust EV analysis over state polling!

Has there ever been this big of a disparity in RV and LV...

I always thought it was a bit exaggerated that dems were afraid of mail voting this year and tbh it does seem like it. Obviously some of it has moved to IPEV but I don't think people are THAT scared of Trump postal office shenanigans.

Is there any actual EV analysis for Michigan

🤔🤔🤔

So funny that he's using chatgpt to write his defenses on Twitter too

Damn, who could have seen this one coming?

I don't think Ossoff is actually built like that either tbh

There are no above average human elected Republicans

I've seen enough. Moving GA to tilt D

GOP shared private polling with Axios that has Ossoff up by 11pts and Bottoms up by 1pt. Another GOPer from a different org said they have similar numbers

Hmmmm

Median libertarian

Florida has fallen

More people on Bluesky should think carefully about engaging with small I'm-not-voting accounts that become more active after Labor Day in an election year. They're not trying to win the argument, they just want to have the argument and boost visibility.

Democrats absolutely cleaning up about irregular voters in Clark County.

I actually don't even get why this is that hard to do against Trump/Republicans consistently here? Is the talent pool THAT bad?

📈📈📈📈

The working-class whisperer Glenn Greenwald was wrong???

Dem group appears to have commissioned 35 polls here Not going to detail them, most are good for Dems. afightworthhaving.com/polling

Guys this all kayfabe, neither of them care about any of you or anything.

Alright Bluesky, give me one other candidate to donate to besides Peltola. I'm thinking Troy Jackson?

Damn this needle was accurate

Dragging this into the light...in light of Brazil.

once more with feeling, baby call an ambulance but not for me

People make fun of Kalshi but its 100% accurate (filtering out all days prior to election day)

Need some people to come out with takes that Lula winning proves Biden would have won if he didn't get forced out by george clooney

Lula clearly went on João Rogan

No clue how accurate this is but fwiw

I was going to ask Bluesky who it be worth donating to this late and came across this

Alaska and Ohio electing Democratic governors but ticket splitting for Senate is super counterintuitive when the Democratic Senate candidates are the biggest electoral overperformers in their states. This is a message from non-doomer AdotSad.

I'll take it! This person even threw Rogan under the bus so they get some additional points.

Fwiw

😔

and every one of these anons is like the deputy undersecretary for FEMA actually making political decisions while the "respectable" Republicans publish magazines that nobody reads

Alright this is hilarious. "I will not announce my projections because it my depress moral"

This is what every intra conservative debate looks like on Twitter