pompoustakes.bsky.social

pompoustakes.bsky.social

@pompoustakes.bsky.social

markets, economics & politics quack

407 followers3K following3.2K posts

No one would suspect a Netanyahu 'pre-emptive' strike aimed at disrupting the elections by prompting retaliation.

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social

PM Netanyahu at an Arrow missile defense battery: Have intelligence indications Iran and its proxies may try to challenge us with an attack aimed at disrupting the elections.

What next - a piece from the accusers' point of view headlined "Trashing Brand's brand"?

Kenny Campbell@mrkennycampbell.bsky.social

I have never seen coverage of a live trial, one involving allegations of multiple sex attacks on multiple women, framed in a more distasteful way. It's not 'Fame under fire' it's a rape trial. And it involves actual women. And this from the *checks notes* BBC

In the run-up to Starmer's GE victory 2.5 years ago I predicted he'd win easily but within 18 months voter disappointment would force Lab to start looking at shifting to a re-join stance. It's taken 12m longer than I thought - but a leadership change has been shoe-horned in. Little excuse now...

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

When I say the politics will become increasingly obvious... I mean look at this. If you want to unite the left/centre and split the Tories, without a big spending committment there's no better option.

Art Of The Deal... "We promise to supply a small amount of diesel we probably don't even have if you either: a) stop Ukraine attacking our oil industry, or b) stop sharing intelligence with them" ...where do I sign?

Christopher Miller@christopherjm.ft.com

US officials stepped up pressure on Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries and threatened to cut off vital intelligence sharing as Donald Trump announced a deal with Moscow to release diesel on to the world market. www.ft.com/content/7fd4... via @financialtimes.com

Yes but the quantum bubble's probably next & even Ray won't be able to tell whether it is or it isn't.

Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com

Billionaire Ray Dalio warned that artificial intelligence is a “classic bubble” that is nearing a bursting point thanks to rising interest rates and the need to turn wealth into cash. Read more here: bloom.bg/4AOTfH7 📷: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images

pompoustakes.bsky.social reposted

This is brilliant. Ever wondered where Core Group Negativr are now? How many of the Cabinet voted against triggering A50? Which Lib Dem MPs have Labour as their closest challenger? It’s all here!

Josh Self@josh.politics.co.uk

Explore 300+ filters, including endorsements in leadership elections going back to 2010, in @politics.co.uk's new Political Profiles database: politics.co.uk/database/

pompoustakes.bsky.social reposted

amazing -- Karl Rove lists Paxton's scandals: "The corrupt business guy gives him a fake Uber account and the records of that are now in his impeachment proceedings, so we know how often he went to have sex with Laura Olsen. I mean, can you make this shit up?"

Maybe the Saudi owners of Manchester City should offer to draw a line in the sand?

David Ornstein@david-ornstein.bsky.social

🚨 EXCLUSIVE: Manchester City found guilty on virtually all charges relating to breaches of Premier League financial regulations. #MCFC expected to appeal against verdict issued by independent commission. Sanctions undecided, process ongoing @theathleticfc.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/athletic/704...

theguardian.comBrave new world or miniature menace? Why Charles fears grey goo nightmareThe scenario is a familiar one: scientists open Pandora's box, awaken Frankenstein's monster, or maybe just play God. But this time the menace on the laboratory bench is undetectable with any conceiva...
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

* KING CHARLES TO AI EXECS: THERE SEEMS URGENCY IN ADEQUATELY CONSIDERING THE EXISTENTIAL DANGERS OF SUCH TECHNOLOGIES FALLING INTO THE WRONG HANDS * KING CHARLES TO AI EXECS: SURELY, WE NEED SUFFICIENT MEANS OF CONTROL BEFORE IT IS ALL TOO LATE? @reuters.com

pompoustakes.bsky.social reposted

Replying to @followtheh.bsky.social

Can’t wait to hear Trump announce he’s cutting off all trade, or perhaps he will announce that we’ve invaded Wall St to defeat all the communists on fixed income desks?

The sad thing about that is that for Spielberg the slippery Mayor was transparent enough to the audience that they'd immediately understand the peril his recklessness created. Modern audiences aren't that clever.

Steve Liesman@steveliesman.bsky.social

It’s amazing to me how Mayor Larry Vaughn from Jaws keeps returning in real life. “The beaches are open, and people are having a wonderful time. ‘Amity,’ as you know, means ‘friendship.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/trum...

The new "Degsy".

Matt Steinglass@mattsteinglass.bsky.social

Melenchon has a realistic plan for solving France's chronic deficit problem. He wants to default on its debt. If France does this, no one will buy any bonds it issues, and it will immediately have to implement severe austerity, slashing spending by at least 5% of GDP to get its deficit down to 0.

...to be followed by "we need it for our security"?

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social

Donald Trump has doubled down on his comments over Ireland unification, saying it would be a 'very cool thing' during a speech at the US embassy. Making light of the situation, he said: 'No matter what you say, no matter how well you say it, there's no good answer, right?'-Sky News

"He's NOT the Messiah, he's a VERY NAUGHTY BOY!"

Jane@localnotail.bsky.social

Daniel Thomas / Danny Tommo has today marched his private army of blackshorts to Daily Mail HQ to demand a new house for his mum within 48 hrs, after they doorstepped her for a feature on him. Apparently he plans to blockade them + cry at them until they do Bet those lads are glad of the balaclavas

Standards are slipping at American universities. Back in the day only desperate outfits like Stanford did this - and they hushed it up until Kemi blew the whistle on them.

Hundreds of colleges are sending prospective students letters of admission—without even requiring an application. https://on.wsj.com/4gSBn4U

pompoustakes.bsky.social reposted

METR and Redwood Research investigated agent behavior in the Hugging Face incident. We found agents developed a universal cheat for ExploitGym within 4 hours, then coordinated multi-day R&D efforts to trick the scorer into accepting cheats, including trying to tamper with logs.

He is paying attention to it. That's why he wants to mask it so it won't be something voters pay attention to. And tbf, like, Bernanke's helicopter, YCC, Twist and QE has teed up a common voter response "sure, they're all at it".

Librarian Capital@librariancapital.bsky.social

"Druckenmiller Calls (Bessent) Bond Buying a Mistake" (Bloomberg) "He suggested the Treasury ... isn’t paying enough attention to how yields signal investors’ confidence in the government’s fiscal position, among other things"

Bluesky social is a viscously right-on bubble.

Jay Van Bavel, PhD@jayvanbavel.bsky.social

Analyzing 1.7 million social media posts, a series of controlled experiments, and a large global survey covering 40 countries (total N = 49,222), we find that extreme opinions are overrepresented on social media by 6-22% compared to their true prevalence in our samples. osf.io/preprints/ps...

Give it a go.

koenfucius@koenfucius.bsky.social

How good are you at inferring the correlation of a set of data points? Check out Daniel @lakens.bsky.social’s game (part of his “Improving your statistical inferences” book) and test (and hone!) your skill: buff.ly/hcOmPOU

Not the Andy Burnham line.

mtsw@mtsw.bsky.social

Republicans love pushing vocational-only education instead of comprehensive-education because they want a healthy supply of low-cost servants and less competition for the professional and boss jobs they want their own kids to have.

Many of the progressives who don't understand this had privileged educations either at top-end private schools or top-end state schools in expensive catchment areas full of the children of highly educated professionals. They weren't taught by demoralised teachers keeping a lid on disruption.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

Why do so many progressives want this? I just don't get it.

Acceptance of money-laundering shops on high streets facilitates the criminal industries that help drive people to Reform (who are willing to talk about it). Meanwhile actual industries the country is supposed to want to encourage get suffocated by heaps of utterly rigid AML, KYC etc bureaucracy.

Daniel Knowles@dlknowles.bsky.social

Targeting crime, and especially the sort of petty crime that makes people feel like a place is unsafe or run-down, is something New Labour did well, in the face of a lot of initial criticism from both right and left.

For anyone trying to interpret moves in gilt yields in the context of Mahmood announced as chancellor here's a pointer. Tail risk. There's a potential fat tail in that a new PM (who said something stupid about being in hock to the bond market) might approve huge unfunded spending. Very unlikely..

... but you have to price it in, then out again when the name of a 'right wing' (Mahmood) CX is frontrunner or some other CX (Milliband) makes a speech saying firmly they aren't going to do anything like that. So there's a timing difference in the market rally.