Robert McLachlan

Robert McLachlan

@robertmclachlan.bsky.social

New Zealand mathematician, writing on climate & the environment at http://planetaryecology.org

740 followers213 following1.1K posts

Yes, it's annoying that electricity prices have risen – up 7% in real terms in a year. But it's still cheaper than in 2015, and meanwhile the proportion of fossil generation has been forced down from 34% to 5% in 20 years – good prep should gas run out. Overall, an impressive performance.

NZ uses 5.5 billion litres of oil for transport each year. Fleet improvements in 2020-2023 are saving 230 ML a year, plus more than 0.5 MtCO2 of emissions and $500m in fuel. If we had not weakened our fuel economy standards, we'd be saving another 130 ML a year & $280m in costs by now. So dumb.

5 of the "Denniston 11" have been found guilty, the 6 ground crew not guilty: Bathurst 'had no authority to exclude people generally from the area' and Bathurst's rights are 'extremely limited' on public reserve land. Please support their fundraiser for legal costs: chuffed.org/project/1296...

chuffed.orgSupport the Denniston 11Support the Denniston 11Climate Resistance Trial – West Coast 2025We’re raising funds to support the Denniston 11 — a group of peaceful protestors facing court for standing up for the climate, biodive...

In New Zealand, utility solar has just surpassed gas power for the first full calendar month. It's surpassed coal on 8 previous months, first in October 2024. I expect utility solar will beat coal and gas combined in October 2026. NZ may be a late starter to solar but we will be fast followers.

Not trying to downplay this but 0.40 ºC/decade is much higher than other estimates and is entirely based on the past 3 hot years, which is not much data. I ran their analysis for 1970-2022 and at that point there was no statistically significant acceleration.

RadReduction (Larry Edwards)@radreduction.bsky.social

"Here we analyze the latest observational temperature records…and identify…a doubling of the global warming rate during 2011–2025 (0.40°C per decade) compared to 1971–2025 (0.20°C per decade). "Extrapolating [shows] crossing…1.5°C…by 2028, nearly a decade" ahead of prior estimates. Sleep walked.

Finland has domestic aviation emissions of 28 kgCO2/p; New Zealand 177 kg. The New Zealand government has just subsidized regional airlines, first with loans (one to an airline that only flies to a private offshore rates-exempt avocado orchard) and now with grants.

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This exchange on the level of international aid omits one huge item – international climate financing, to which we're expected to contribute under the Paris Agreement. The previous government committed $1.3 billion over 2022-2025 ($325m/yr) although actual spending www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

rnz.co.nzNational's claim foreign aid increased by 26% 'incorrect', Winston Peters saysClaims by the National party that foreign aid money had increased by 26 percent since 2021 are "incorrect", according to a spokesperson for the foreign minister, saying the "much more modest" increase...
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PS Now I've read the Treasury document more carefully, it seems that the whole $325m commitment was met, but only $262m of that was 'new money' - the rest was reallocated from the existing aid budget. It matched the global target as a percentage of GDP (0.1%). The new target is 3 times that.

This exchange on the level of international aid omits one huge item – international climate financing, to which we're expected to contribute under the Paris Agreement. The previous government committed $1.3 billion over 2022-2025 ($325m/yr) although actual spending www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

rnz.co.nzNational's claim foreign aid increased by 26% 'incorrect', Winston Peters saysClaims by the National party that foreign aid money had increased by 26 percent since 2021 are "incorrect", according to a spokesperson for the foreign minister, saying the "much more modest" increase...

Same thing in NZ: same population as Ireland, both emit 3-4 MtCO2/year from heavy vehicles. NZ has 200k trucks & buses, of which just 900 (mostly smaller) trucks and 300 buses are electric.

Ireland's chronic over-dependence on HGVs for freight leaves us at mercy of every fuel crisis & cutting diesel prices is only a short-term salve. We need to shift to rail freight & electrify our HGV fleet, as I explain in @irishexaminer.bsky.social today. www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/comm...

Oops, got my numbers flipped, it's 300 electric trucks and 900 buses. Electric buses are a bright spot, 10% of all bus-kilometres in the country have been flipped electric in no time at all.

Robert McLachlan reposted

My position on why the EU- NZ trade agreement complaint’s so serious- we can’t have it both ways - we can’t claim to be honest brokers on a world stage while at home we’re not keeping to the fair climate/sustainability rules we expect our trade partners to also stick to www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

rnz.co.nz'Stakes could not be higher': Concern over claim NZ breached FTA climate commitmentsInternational relations experts are warning a case claiming New Zealand is not meeting EU trade agreement climate commitments could seriously impact the country's reputation.

Robert McLachlan reposted

New NZ utility solar records set on 24 & 29 Sep, 550 MW peak, 4408 MWh for the day, due to the Tauhei & Kowhai Park solar farms (each 150 MW) entering service. Will double in next 12 months. Previous record was 360 MW set in August during Tauhei commissioning.

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Greenpeace Aotearoa joins complaint to EU over NZ’s climate policy regression The complaint addresses Government reversal of climate policies, which Greenpeace has labelled a 'race to the bottom on environmental regulation'. www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/pre...

greenpeace.orgGreenpeace joins complaint to EU over NZ climate policy reversal - Greenpeace AotearoaThe complaint addresses Government reversal of climate policies, which Greenpeace has labelled a 'race to the bottom on environmental regulation'.

Robert McLachlan reposted

And the price of listening to ACT, Fed Farmers, and Groundswell are starting to pay their dividends. A complaint has been laid that NACT1 has breached our Trade Agreement with the EU. The EC will investigate and sanctions can include TRADE Sanctions against farmers newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/30/f...

newsroom.co.nzFormal complaint that NZ climate backsliding breaches Europe trade dealThe Government's top law officer warned that if ministers blocked Mike Smith's Fonterra lawsuit, the next case would target the Crown directly. She's been proven right, reports Jonathan Milne.

Robert McLachlan reposted

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You sure Todd? And if the EC and UK decide to trade sanction our farmers? Then what smart arse

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Robert McLachlan reposted

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For 3 years, the New Zealand government has fucked around on climate to satisfy its rich backers – cancelling climate action & funding new fossil fuel projects. The finding-out phase has now begun. www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic... Thanks for nothing, Christopher Luxon. #nzpol #NZEUFTA #eu #climate

rnz.co.nzNZ accused of breaking climate change promise with EU, but Todd McClay rejects claimA Dutch environmental group claims New Zealand has broken its climate change promises in the free trade agreement with the EU and is lodging the first complaint of its kind through the European Commis...

McClay: "NZ takes its international obligations seriously and always meets them." – e.g. our 2030 Paris Agreement target? "It is not for overseas countries or organisations to tell NZ how to meet its obligations." – not true: the complaint process is specifically written into the FTA.

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👀👀👀

Dr Charlie Gardner@charliejgardner.bsky.social

This year has been brutal, and like most people you probably want to do more about climate change. But what, and how? Great news – I’ve written just the book for you! It’s called What One Person Can Do and it’s a clear and simple how-to guide, a roadmap to help you make influential changes...

Robert McLachlan reposted

1/ People keep saying AI is inevitable. History disagrees. Plenty of technologies were called unstoppable, and societies stopped them or shrank them down to a niche. A thread 🧵