Ronan Lyons

Ronan Lyons

@ronanlyons.bsky.social

Housing, cities, history. Professor in Economics at Trinity College Dublin, Data Lead at CEPH. Dad of 3, husband of 1, soccer coach, rugby fan. ronanlyons.com and ronanlyons.substack.com.

1.8K followers380 following342 posts

The Housing Theory of Everything strikes again.

Tarik Abou-Chadi@tabouchadi.bsky.social

Now out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. In our new article, @denis-cohen.bsky.social @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that where local rent prices increase more, residents with lower incomes become more likely to support the radical right AfD. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

My theory is that this very important glitch in public economic reasoning stems from the length of time it takes to build homes (and that homes are built when prices are rising).

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social

Building more housing reduces housing costs and is good. But one reason this isn’t the basis for a massive political movement is that most people think building more housing actually raises prices. You might even say building more housing isn’t very Popular

Ronan Lyons reposted

People should be restricted to one online opinion a day. That would increase the quality and thought going into each opinion, and reduce the numbers of mindless knee jerk reaction takes spoiling the internet.

Ireland has ~1.5 million homes suitable for families. Ireland is very unlikely to ever have more than 0.8m families (with kids under 18). Unbelievable that anyone paying attention to the housing crisis could have missed that the crisis is/will be for 1-2 person households. www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2...

rte.ieWhy new apartment standards won't mean housing more peopleHalf of the households in Ireland have children, yet there is no plan for where, and how, the next generations will live

Ireland has overtaken another EU member state, in population, for the first time since joining the EEC back in 1972. At current trends, Ireland will overtake Finland in 2028. (And Scotland maybe in 2027, just about.)

Important evidence on why housing is not like other markets - not because demand and supply don't work but because voters don't believe they do (despite the evidence). Likely key here is the long lag required to get new housing supply v other goods - so extra supply is associated with higher prices.

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Ronan Lyons reposted

The latest JEP has an extraordinary set of papers on the economics of housing. My favorite? The one showing that most people incorrectly believe that increasing housing supply won't lower housing costs. Subsidizing home-buying is popular even though it raises costs. 🤦 www.aeaweb.org/issues/814

Ronan Lyons reposted

Births weren't officially registered in Ireland until 1864 and then the census returns were burnt in the Four Courts, making it really hard for people in the 1920s/30s to prove their ages to get a pension. The acceptable alternative documentation included dated birthday cards

Ronan Lyons reposted

Replying to @jpube.bsky.social

Why do women engage in sex work, especially given the health risks associated with the market? This paper shows that during a historical recession, the number of sex work establishments rose, suggesting that economic hardship may drive women into the market.

What determines electoral success in Ireland? Evidence from the last 30 years says being a woman reduces re-election chances by ten percentage points. Don't be in the out-going government (unless you're a Senior Minister). And Being Junior Minister, it turns out, does nothing.

esr.ieDeterminants of Incumbent Electoral Success: Evidence from 30 Years of Irish Elections | The Economic and Social ReviewWe examine the determinants of incumbent electoral success among members of Ireland’s lower house of parliament, Dáil Éireann, over a time-period covering seven General Elections (1992 to 2020). We utilise multiple sources to create a dataset linking incumbent politicians’ electoral outcomes to personal characteristics, constituency and election-specific characteristics, as well as a range of constituency-level socioeconomic variables. Our analysis reveals a number of important factors in determining the re-election success of politicians. Notably, being a woman reduces an incumbent’s chances of re-election by 10 percentage points, even after controlling for a wide range of other potentially important factors. Holding a senior ministerial position is found to significantly boost an incumbent’s re-election prospects, while being a junior minister has no impact. However, absent a senior ministerial position, being a member of a ruling government party or coalition is associated with significantly lower re-election success. We construct a measure of competitiveness and find that an incumbent in a more competitive constituency is less likely to be elected, while past performance, as measured by the order in which an incumbent is elected in the previous contest, is found to be an important predictor of current success.

And that's ok because the vast majority of additional housing required in all high-income countries is housing for 1-2 person households.

Bloomberg Opinion@opinion.bloomberg.com

An apartment-building boom that’s now ending delivered a lot of one-bedroom dwellings … and not much family-friendly housing, says @byjustinfox.bsky.social 🏘️ Read the column: bloom.bg/3HYwuJP

Easy to miss with everything else that's going on but ... the world's greatest ever telescope has just started releasing its first images!

NSF–DOE Rubin Observatory@rubinobservatory.org

Want to download everything from today? Whether you want a new desktop background or an image to send to friends and family, we've got you covered! Head to rubinobservatory.org/gallery/collections/first-look-gallery and take your pick 🌌🔭🧪 (...or just download everything, no need to choose!)

"hey Ireland, you get a special mention as a close trading partner of the US in this paper about the impact of tariffs." "oh, is it good news?" "..."

NBER@nber.org

Using a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of recent US tariff increases on imports from various countries, from Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Mauricio Ulate, and Jose P. Vasquez https://www.nber.org/papers/w33792

No doubt there are people born in the 1750s and 1760s in this photo (albeit hidden away inside in the homes as it was taken). Amazing history.

Dan Snow@thehistoryguy.bsky.social

Around now in 1838 Louis Daguerre took this shot in Paris capturing a shoe shiner & customer. Believed to the first of billions of photos of human beings.

Ronan Lyons reposted

🚗 Are you spending hours commuting every week — not because you want to, but because housing costs have left you no choice? I’m working on a story about Ireland’s commuting crisis and I’m looking to speak with those affected. Please repost 📩 gerherbert6@gmail.com #HousingCrisis #CommuterVoices

As part of the piece, I look at Ireland's share of Europe's population since 1500, using overlapping Maddison and UN data. If even 1700 - not to mention 1750, 1800 or 1840 - represented 'steady state' for the island, it is still significantly under-populated, notwithstanding the last three decades.

As a Leinster fan, bitterly disappointed to have lost. But what a game - neutrals must have really enjoyed it 😂😭. Some ref decisions I didn't understand at all but the better team definitely won. I'll be wishing them well for the final. Onwards and upwards for Leinster. Back to the URC!

Ronan Lyons reposted

Replying to @willdalrymple.bsky.social

"This, perhaps, is The Golden Road’s most urgent message for our times: we have always been a deeply globalized, interconnected, mongrel world. Those who continue to harken for a “pure” past will find it only by fictionalizing it."

Ronan Lyons reposted

Today, I review rent determination systems in over 50 high-income jurisdictions. I find there are four main types of system, from (mostly) market to (mostly) regulatory. Ireland is already among the three most regulatory. Going even more regulatory is unlikely, therefore, to improve outcomes.

thecurrency.newsRethinking rent: What 50 countries can teach Ireland about rent controls - The CurrencyThe Irish government is currently reviewing the Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ) system of rent controls, introduced a decade ago. The RPZ system was only ever designed as a temporary one, while new supply wa...

Ronan Lyons reposted

Really nice visualisation of a lagged health outcome over decades (in contrast to the delays over days/weeks we typically see for acute infectious diseases like COVID)

Saloni@scientificdiscovery.dev

Once widespread, smoking is now uncommon in Great Britain 🧵

Extraordinary achievement from Rory McIlroy in the golf tonight. The drama, the resilience, the emotion. Not a huge golf fan, but was hooked by tonight. (Honestly, I was supposed to be in bed two hours ago!)

Saw something very sad on Saturday. We were lucky enough to get out for dinner with friends. A little after we arrived, a dad with his two sons (~10 and ~13) arrived at the table next to us. This is about 9pm, so already my parenting alarm is going off. But, sadly, it got much worse.

They stayed for an hour and literally didn't say a word to each other for their whole time there. Dad on his phone when not eating. Older son on Tiktok. Younger son looked utterly lost, occasionally on his phone but clearly tired. How ineffably sad. How did they end up like that?

Not as pretty as John's graph (that's always a high bar) but here you can see the Irish equivalent Uncertainty Index, up to March. I've no doubt the April figure will match global trends. This comes from the excellent work of Jonathan Rice. www.policyuncertainty.com/ireland_rice...

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com

3) That was just the US version. What’s particularly impressive is that he’s managed this on a global scale. Starting to get the feeling that “Trump” annotation is going to be the chart equivalent of a layer of volcanic ash in the fossil record.

Ronan Lyons reposted

Just as important as the general increase in tariffs is the complete abandonment of the principle of non-discrimination, which the US had traditionally championed. This will further increase international tensions at a time when the US is ripping up the post-1945 security architecture.