Tony Holland

I am getting so many political post cards here in KY and most of the Republican cards say they are helping secure our borders. I mean I get it - those Hoosiers are an honery bunch

This is actually encouraging that corruption is a main concern.

“Food price inflation is going to accelerate. When you do the margin math for manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, it’s really hard to see how food prices aren’t going to bump up in the next two, three months.“ www.ft.com/content/1392...

wowsa

With so many stocks on the new low list there ought to be a long list of tax loss selling candidates to look at in the 4Q

NAAIM Exposure 71.9 Lowest since Spring lows

Warsh speaking now

Fed decided to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and -- more importantly -- the decision was unanimous. Markets will be happy that the chair has decided to signal he's more of a Serious Kevin than a Sockpuppet Kevin (which was their main concern).

Fed hikes 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as expected.

“.. Moynihan described what sales and trading revenue would be for the fiscal third quarter using one word: flat.” @barrons.com $BAC www.barrons.com/articles/ban...

Apple's new iPhone Duo will let you view your portfolio and apply for jobs on the same screen. $AAPL

Gundlach.

The producer price index jumped 0.4% in August on higher energy prices, in-line with expectations. That is prior to the recent surge in oil and seems somewhat stale. What is more worrisome is where the price hikes were. They were heavily in diesel and heating fuel.

That chart is busy but the idea is to illustrate how wide estimates are depending on what you track. The first two approaches get you a 0.004 and 0.055 R^2 since 2019 respectively, the nowcast 0.53. Takeaway: PPI consistent with still-hot core PCE, but everything rests on CPI tomorrow.

“Microsoft also reports that it actually paid $6.5 billion to the Irish government (and another $5.5 billion in tax in other foreign jurisdictions), more than the $6.25 billion it paid to the U.S. Treasury.” www.cfr.org/articles/the...

My take on Fed Chair Warsh speech. His disdain for forward guidance was overwhelmed by a need to underscore Fed independence & persistence of inflation. Markets filled in the void in his remarks by ⬆️ September rate hike odds. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Every measure of the Taylor rule suggests short-term rates should be 100-200+bps higher than current levels based on economic conditions. www.atlantafed.org/research-and...

Buckingham Palace band playing 9 to 5 for Dolly Parton

slightly hawkish skew in the minutes *FED: MANY SAID HIKE LIKELY NEEDED IF INFLATION DIDN'T DECLINE *FED: PARTICIPANTS JUDGED INFLATION RISKS WERE SKEWED TO UPSIDE also: *FED: CHAIRMAN ASKED COMMITTEE FOR INPUT ON MEETING SCHEDULE

Yowsa.

I am doing well but my own sentiment is in the tank. I don't do much social media but it seeps into everything

This is an absolute show-stopper of a chart from Dr. David Kelly at JPM, it shows the complete and utter disconnect between consumer sentiment and the stock market. We have never before seen such a disconnect between how people are feeling and how they're actually doing.

"Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in June." Well below consensus and previous 2 months revised down sharply.

Great chart from Kevin Gordon at Schwab (from Vandatrack)

This is CORE inflation, while headline goes over 4%. If the Fed has even the most lukewarm commitment to a 2% inflation target, they have to hike rates.

I say this with all seriousness. If you are looking for any war news to move the market down, I think you are looking in the wrong place.

A livestream of a volcano in the Philippines captured a meteor crashing to Earth today. What are the odds? Mayon Volcano, Location: Albay, Luzon, Philippines

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT OFFICIALLY HITS $39 TRILLION, RISING BY APPROXIMATELY $5 BILLION PER DAY SINCE OCTOBER - REPORTS

The Fed rate cut debate is over; the rate hike debate has begun www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Good morning. Here is your Monday morning attempt at boosting stocks. Who needs prediction markets when he is so predictable?

Wowsa. I am a full time trader and I dont trade this much.

Data today continues to show that US manufacturing is weak and softening. Quite the contrast to all the folks around here desperately trying to make the case that some kind of boom is happening.

NAAIM Exposure 77 Color me surprised.

No sign of an increase in US oil production since the war began.

funniest thing i’ve ever seen

Yesterday's VIX put/call ratio was .16. Second time sub 20 in a week.

Brent crude oil highest settle in almost 4 years $114

Kolanovic.

TUDOR JONES: “.. We're 252% of stock market cap-to-GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. “.. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline.” youtu.be/S31J5ACsOqU?...

As I read the news today it is crystal clear that our most pressing need as a nation is a new ballroom for our leader.

What a crazy story. And scary

Dan Schulman is the new CEO of Verizon and he is predicting 20 to 30% unemployment within the next 2 to 5 years due to AI. Not a typo. He thinks 1/3 of people currently employed will lose their jobs by 2030.

Zillow: "Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will shift +0.0% between March 2026 and March 2027." With 3% inflation, that is a decline in real prices.

😬 THAT'S NOT GOOD – The Air Force VIP jet (SAM236 – tail: 99-0004) departs Pakistan after only a few hours on the ground 👀

(Bloomberg) - Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan in order to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries — an event that he warned would have “vicious” effects. @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I am traveling but still trying to keep up. So is it a taco or is he going to nuke a whole country. What the he'll is happening?

WTI Oil at $114.56 (gasoline will be close to $5 nationally if this gets above $120)

The meme crowd starts trading oil.

I have really been trying to understand the reason for Iran. From what I can tell Jared convinced Trump that bombing Iran would make him popular and Trump and Hegseth really like watching stuff blow up on the screens. I cant seem to find any other reason that makes sense