Matthias

Bulgaria, Alpha Research exit poll: Presidential election, first round today Iotova (*~NI|S&D|*): 35.3% (+35.3) Gyurov (*-RE|EPP|Greens/EFA): 32.4% (+32.4) Kostadinov (V-ESN): 12.6% (+12.6) Vasilev (MECh-*): 4.1% (+4.1) ... +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/bulgaria

"Even if Moscow engages in negotiations to end the war, it is likely to continue using military coercion against Ukraine, as well as Europe."

Another disastrous move threatening the security of Europe But the question remains: what are our leaders going to do about it?

Och, wie süß. Eine Heuschnecke.

So, for perspective: On the same day that the US hosts a round of peace talks with Ukrainian and European officials in Miami, the US announces sanctions on the ICC, an energy deal with Putin and a waiver on Russian diesel until April 2027.

Finally read the new AfD strategy paper on Europe. It casts 2029 as a “historic window” to reorient the EU’s foundations through Treaty change, with a right-wing majority in the EP and a German government with AfD participation both within reach. Thread on some notable points:

"The two countries now look to be closer to a direct conflict than at any time since 1998-2000, when they fought a war which killed tens of thousands." www.economist.com/middle-east-...

🔴Just in: Valérie Hayer will be a candidate to lead the Renew group in the EP for the second half of the mandate, @contexte.com has learned from sources inside the group. Renew will vote on Oct 20.

Important side effect of the Spanish snap elections: The EU MFF negotiations will either be fully compressed into December, or more likely, fail to be concluded this year and run straight into a series of crucial national elections.

Latvia: national parliament election today 🇱🇻 🇪🇺 SKDS' exit poll shows national-conservative AS (ECR) at 43 seats, allowing it to form a two-party majority government. Explore the data: https://europeelects.eu/2026/10/01/latvia-national-parliament-election-2026-2/ #vēlēšanas2026

Yeah that’s not good. No reason to stop though, but a reason to get better. “A third official said that, judging matters on how well Element Pro works compared to Teams, the U.S. would “instantly win the war” if it ever decided to switch off its technology.” www.politico.eu/article/eu-m...

The existence of the Car Pope in Cars 2 implies the existence of Car Protestantism, which implies a Car Reformation, which implies a church–state cleavage, which means Lipset and Rokkan (1967) are canon in the Cars universe

Latvia really has some excellent drama built into their constitution - i love it! The parliament can only be dissolved by the president calling for a referendum. If the referendum passes, the parliament is dismissed. If it doesn't reach a majority, the president is dismissed instead.

Strandkorb bleibt Strandkorb und Randmob bleibt Randmob

Latvian newspaper LSM has some solid advice when it comes to using AI to make up your mind for whom to vote for eng.lsm.lv/article/poli...

The EU Budget Navigator is live! Want to compare proposals for the EU’s next long-term budget, see which priorities receive funding or build your own scenario? We've got you covered! Explore the EU Budget Navigator here: budget-navigator.eu Why it matters - a thread. @bst-europe.bsky.social 1/7

High turnout at 14hrs in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The previous state election in 2021 was held at the same time as the federal election, so turnout increase is quite something.

Es gibt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Aber es gibt auch Mecklenburg und Vorpommern. Wie wir heute Abend voraussichtlich wieder sehen werden, unterscheiden sich beide Regionen deutlich in ihrem Wahlverhalten. Woher kommen diese Unterschiede? Ein Thread mit Daten aus dem Kaiserreich bis heute. 🧵

Wow, Swedish newspapers really bring seat allocation procedures to life www.svt.se/nyheter/folj...

Sweden, SVT Valu exit poll: National parliament election S-S&D: 28.4% (-1.9) M-EPP: 18.1% (-1.0) SD-ECR: 17.2% (-3.3) V-LEFT: 8.0% (+1.2) C-RE: 7.5% (+0.8) MP-G/EFA: 7.4% (+2.3) KD-EPP: 6.1% (+0.8) L-RE: 5.4% (+0.8) +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/sweden

Sweden, national parliament election today: Total early voting turnout 2014: 36.46% 2018: 38.84% 2022: 40.56% 2026: 45.56% (record high) Valmyndigheten ➤ europeelects.eu/sweden #Sweden

2/ Ukrainian successes in eliminating the Russian salient north of Lyman over the past several months have disrupted the Russian military command’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast from the Lyman and Dobropillya areas.

The important race this weekend is if the Liberals (L-RE) pass the threshold. If the centre-right coalition holds, they will likely invite the Sweden Democrats to be part of the cabinet, instead of just supporting the minority gov

Sweden: National parliament election Early voting turnout three days before the election (13 September) 2014: 28.35% 2018: 30.45% 2022: 31.90% 2026: 37.44% (record high) Valmyndigheten ➤ europeelects.eu/sweden #Sweden

I could be wrong, but I believe the CDU has never failed to pass the threshold in any election? Seven per cent in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is only one margin of error away from the threshold, and the dynamics appears to favor rather voters moving to the SPD to make them the biggest party.

Bit of a wonky post, but here I share a lot about how I’m thinking about polls and polling error these day www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-15...

Péter Magyar clarified in a video message today that his party accession to the the EPP is contingent not only on the conclusion of the Article 7 procedure against Hungary, but also on the reimbursement of the daily fine of one million euros imposed for not complying with the EU asylum rules.

Estonia has a new president. news.err.ee/1610126071/e...

Simplicity is the most underestimated quality of electoral laws. Simple rules make for sticky systems, close loopholes, make elections legible to voters and thus more egalitarian. It should be the third pillar of normative evaluations of electoral systems, besides proportionality and accountability.

The Ethiopian federal government and TPLF have engaged in the first sustained period of military confrontation in the Tigray region since the end of the Tigray war in 2022 due to the breakdown of their peace agreement.

Washington's decision to look backwards on its military is a once in a generation opportunity for Europe to move forwards with its own technologies and companies

Remember to treat your body like a data center. Consume as much literature and water as possible.

German MEP Damian Boeselager: Locking 27 leaders in a castle and thinking they will deliver a good outcome is a categorical mistake

According to a study published in the journal Science, today's spoken languages are the legacy of a handful that survived a major "language bottleneck" in the past.

An interview with Chris Engelsman, one of the founders of @EuropeanSlpr: Some key background to ES's aims and future here... back-on-track.eu/in-conversat...

I laughed

I hope we all agree that this is the best available design.

This will also have repercussions on the European level - Morawiecki, who has just been expelled, is the head of the European Conservative and Reformer (ECR) party, the party that brings together PiS, Meloni's FdI and other national conversatives across the EU.

ECB dropped the new design proposals for the future Euro notes 🔥 surveys.ecb.europa.eu/lng/en/pageT...

Just a year ago, few thought this would happen so soon: Hungary has officially joined the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. After years as the EU’s most corrupt member state—its EU funds routinely looted by Orbán’s oligarchy—Hungary will surely keep EPPO busy.

Nothing says “this insurance company knows my country” than using an AI generated map of Belgium that puts Ghent in Wallonie, gives us two Namurs and a south coast on the Med.

Did she really say 'every inch' though?

Almost a two-third majority in the EP voting to open an investigation into the AfD-led 'Europe of Sovereign Nations':

⚖️75% of EU citizens see the EU as a place of stability at a time of geopolitical uncertainty. 🌍 73% of EU citizens want the EU to have more means to face global challenges. According to the latest Eurobarometer survey published today. 🔗 Learn more: link.europa.eu/FfyVjN

2024: Ukraine really needs to destroy the Kerch bridge to slow down Russian advances 2026: Well, Ukraine can just target everything on all roads on Crimea 2028: Russia really needs to destroy the Kerch bridge to slow down Ukrainian advances

💥Leaked chats and documents showcase the Russian presidential administration’s role in false-flag vandalism attacks and election interference campaigns in Europe and beyond. @occrp.org VSquare.org