Vikki Thompson

Vikki Thompson

@vikkithompson.bsky.social

Climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh. Researching weather and climate extremes. Climate modelling, statistics, attribution.

564 followers209 following68 posts

Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme rain, and using multiple methods can increase our confidence in this. We've been working on a new storyline technique:

Ed Hawkins@edhawkins.org

Over the weekend, a storm in the Baltic states caused significant disruption to power supplies and at least 2 deaths. An experimental reanalysis-based attribution approach suggests that ~20% more rain fell than if the same weather pattern had occurred in a world that was 1°C cooler.

Vikki Thompson reposted

🚴‍♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4

🚴‍♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4

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🚴‍♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4

Vikki Thompson reposted

What happens if you replay real weather from 1903 and “turn up the heat”? While temperatures rise across the board, the most noticeable increases occur during cold snaps and warm spells. ncas.ac.uk/turning-up-t... #earth-science #SciComm 🧪

ncas.ac.ukWhat would 1903 weather look like today under climate change? - NCASClimate scientists are now replaying the past to predict the future, to show how everyday weather could feel in a warmer world.

Vikki Thompson reposted

It’s London Climate Action Week! And how appropriate that a major heatwave is settling in across much of Europe. For most of us, an uncomfortable inconvenience. For the vulnerable, a severe health risk. And for everyone, a reminder that climate change is already here. #LCAW2026

In Edinburgh this weekend? Why not come along to #PeopleFest I'm speaking at an event where we will consider, in this changing climate, how catastrophe and the mundane interwoven and balanced against each other in our daily lives. Register for free here: shorturl.at/aqutE

Using multiple lines of evidence we show small changes in the position and magnitude of the cut-off low act to reduce the total rainfall over the region. We used reanalysis, ensemble forecasts, boosted ensembles, and pseudo global warming simulations.

Comparing multiple attribution methods increases confidence in conclusions - we need all the puzzle pieces to see the full picture 🧩🌀☀️🌧️🧩 Hear more about the many different weather and climate #attribution methods at #EGU26 today, including Shirin Ermis' talk on method comparisons, 1045 in room F1

Last day to submit an abstract to EMS...

Vikki Thompson@vikkithompson.bsky.social

Working on impact attribution of extreme weather events? Submit to our session at the EMS Annual Meeting in Utrecht in September! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2026/sess... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @sannemuis.bsky.social

Vikki Thompson reposted

Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes! 📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections lnkd.in/efWVVCYX Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.

Where have the greatest humid heat extremes been observed? Where is statistically likely to see unprecedented extremes? New study led by @regclimo.bsky.social investigates:

Colin Raymond@regclimo.bsky.social

What do we talk about when we talk about unprecedentedness? Without a clear baseline, understanding & preparedness for climate extremes may be out of whack. We sought to improve this for humid heat in our new paper out now in @aguadvances.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

But circulation analogues are still useful - they can assess changes in large-scale dynamics of similar events. And we have other methods - such as storylines - which are more suited to assessing changes in rainfall intensity of extreme events. 🧵2/2

Vikki Thompson reposted

We are very delighted to have @karinvdwiel.bsky.social and @regclimo.bsky.social as invited speakers in our #EGU26 session on NH11.2 Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards! Consider to present your fantastic work with us!! @nh.egu.eu @pik-potsdam.bsky.social

Vikki Thompson@vikkithompson.bsky.social

👻🎃 It's that time of year again, time to start thinking about #EGU26! 🔥🌧️🌀 Our session on Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards is now open for abstract submissions 🔥🌧️🌀 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social

☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤 Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis doi.org/10.1002/wea....

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.comThe need for multi‐method extreme event attributionOver the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned story...

Vikki Thompson reposted

Europe's current climate could produce a 'mega heatwave', feat. more than a month of +40C temps & intense drought Extra scary fact: The worst-case heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave. In other words, rolling waves of deadly heat www.newscientist.com/article/2491...

newscientist.comEurope could face weeks of 40°C heat in current worst-case scenarioA perfect storm of conditions priming the atmosphere for extreme heat could result in devastating droughts and deadly temperatures lasting for weeks across Europe

This week marks my last few days working at KNMI, after a fantastic few years exploring new methods with amazing colleagues and collaborators it's time for the next challenge. First, a holiday ☀️⛰️🚴‍♂️

Vikki Thompson reposted

Nieuw onderzoek laat zien dat de overstromingen in Limburg in 2021 nog veel ernstiger hadden kunnen zijn. Als het weer nét iets anders was verlopen, hadden de buien langer kunnen duren of op een andere plek kunnen vallen, met mogelijk grotere impact. 🔗 www.knmi.nl/over-het-knm...

🌡️☀️ It is hot in Europe this week – but how much hotter would it be in the future? Using a weather model we can simulate tomorrow’s weather in a warmer climate. Tomorrow Paris is forecast to reach 37°C, in a world 1.5°C warmer the same weather patterns could lead to temperatures over 40°C.

#ShowYourStripes day on a #parkrun day made it easy to pick out a shirt. Climate change impacts sports. Extreme heat, happening increasingly often, forces events to adjust or cancel with little notice. Climate change impacts everyone.

After a fantastic set of oral presentations the posters sessions in hall X3 now, perfect way to end your #EGU25!

Kai Kornhuber@kornhuber.bsky.social

Happening now in 1.31/32 🟩 @egu.eu our session on ‘Future changes in Weather and Climate Hazards around the World’ co-convened with @raedhamed.bsky.social @vikkithompson.bsky.social @tamarahappe.bsky.social @eunicelo.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at Also join us at the posters at X3 🟪 at 16:15.

Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43

Marylou Athanase@marylouathanase.bsky.social

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social