William Blair Santos Allen

My heart goes out to you trying to explain this. But great job! Wish you had written this for me to learn in 1982! It was a hard slog back then.

NEW: SpaceX IPO lockup drives surge in controversial derivatives trades www.ifre.com/people-and-m...

Excellent thread!

Portugal. What a lovely place, always raking in the top 5 in the World for vacations, retirement, etc. Thank you capitalism. www.euronews.com/2026/10/16/i...

“What’s common sense to most people is not to economists. As economists, we should do better. People’s dignity, and democracy, is at stake.” @isabellamweber.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/business/202...

NEW @crisesnotes.bsky.social PIECE: I give my take on the new "Nobel" prize winners. What it means, why they won and why I hope that this award for a "counterrevolution" is a death rattle. www.crisesnotes.com/on-the-ersat...

If you didn’t actually know these models, would you know from this write up that it’s a system of three equations representing the behaviour of one (1) representative consumer?

I filled out my ballot today and found this site helpful for figuring out all the California propositions: www.openballot.app/elections/ca... #BeAVoter

Brian is better than all of the Fabozzi bond books together, that I was forced to read in the 1980s and 1990s!

Yes. Brian is extremely good!

New article: Mortgage Rate Pain bondeconomics.substack.com/p/mortgage-r...

My latest piece, which are reactions to a pair of recent articles. The first is on forward guidance, and I dive into the background of that idea. The second is on a diesel export ban. bondeconomics.substack.com/p/back-on-fo...

Latest article - "What's Up With Money?" The joy of Monetarism is that there is almost always a money supply number that fits whatever your story is. bondeconomics.substack.com/p/whats-up-w...

My comment on Andy Haldane's @financialtimes.com op-ed on the death of Keynesianism nakedkeynesianism.blogspot.com/2026/09/is-k...

Having worked in finance before and during GFC, I recognise the symptoms here. Finally a perspective I can get behind. Great read! www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser...

Very good piece on how the shit is about to hit the fan as the AI companies have to start paying for data centers when they come online in a big way, starting next year www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser... Hopefully, even brain-dead billionaires can see this coming.

reminder that this is what auto supply chains in North America currently look like. Random parts can cross the US/Canadian border half a dozen times www.wsj.com/business/aut...

This was a good critique of oligarchs, especially the hypocrite Jamie Dimon. The same Dimon who feels so self important and enjoys his 30 million plus compensation so much that, at age 70, still cannot seem to manage building a succession plan for JP Morgan.

It is pretty clear that the inflation we are experiencing is not emanating from the labor market--the labor share of GDP plunging to all time lows each quarter it seems

“If you do not have a precise quantity associated with money, the Quantity Theory of Money cannot be falsified.” open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

This is a better breakdown, via B of A

Vacation ideas.

We haven’t even gotten to the big lockup expirations yet. $SPCX

This is good. Not always satisfied with Krugman but this is worth a read. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

In my latest article, I make a bold prediction! open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

Just…. Wow!

At some point, the Brits will figure out that the cat would do a better job.

Rather enjoying playing this game again.

Maybe good for stocks short term. But bad for society in general.

open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

“The worst political strategy for progressives is to emulate the brain trust of the Starmer Labour Party and embrace the bond vigilante story line, as that story line will always be invoked in a way that almost only constrains the left …”

Hourly wages are up 3% since 2019. Corporate profits are up 50%. Labor’s piece of the economic pie is the smallest it’s been in over 75 years, while corporate profits’ share is the *biggest* it’s been since 1950. This is what a rigged economy looks like.

Short article with a "Bond Market Vigilante" angle in the U.K. and the U.S. I am getting ready for a trip shortly, so I have been cleaning up other projects recently, so less time for writing. open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

This the chart I use in my first class of the history of economics. The Smith/Ricardo/Marx vs Bentham/Mill/Marshall or social conflict vs rationalist/utilitarian traditions. I teach this course less than I would like

When it comes to finding an EU anthem, the strategy of going with one of Beethoven's most recognizable bangers as opposed to commissioning some sort of new Europudding tune was a stroke of genius.

We’re calling it the Strait of Hormuz Intervention Treaty.

open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

This FT Alphaville article is excellent!

This photo should be on the front page of every single newspaper in America today.

Global jet fuel supplies are collapsing. Lufthansa has already cut 20,000 flights.

I don't think I'll ever get over Clarence Thomas ruling on cases related to Jan 6 knowing that his wife was an active participant in the attempted coup. Or ruling on cases related to government regulations and a wealth tax knowing he took gifts from billionaires. It's a disgrace.

Sure do! press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

Trucking rates will definitely get your attention. (via Schwab)

“Those of us who are silent right now — whether we call ourselves Democrats or Republicans, whether we are in the military or are civilians, whether or not we hold public office, whether we like Donald Trump or detest him — must not remain silent.” open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

"Call it democracy, or call it democratic socialism, but there must be a better distribution of wealth within this country for all God's children." —MLK Jr.

This was a really good set of points about commodity futures curves. On the terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...