Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Yuriy Gorodnichenko

@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine Author of "Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments".

5.6K followers526 following524 posts

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

Centre for Economic Policy Research
@cepr.org

A new CEPR #PolicyInsight argues that funding Ukrainian defence is the cheapest and fastest way for Europe to buy time and security. Ukrainian soldiers, howitzers and drones cost a fraction of their European equivalents and can be delivered in months rather than years.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Rearm at home or fund #Ukraine? Many European leaders see a painful trade-off. It isn't one. In a new report, Torbjörn Becker & I show it's a win-win: #Europe buys security cheaper & faster, Ukraine's idle factories get to work, & Russia's frozen assets can help pay. Link: tinyurl.com/56mx7xf8

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

Justin Wolfers
@justinwolfers.bsky.social

In 1980, inflation was 14% and unemployment was 8%. Consumer sentiment: 52.⁣ ⁣ In 2026: still 52.⁣ ⁣ Turns out Americans aren't just worried about the economy https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/its-not-the-economy-its-whos-running

newsletter.platypuseconomics.comIt’s Not the Economy. It’s Who’s Running It.Americans are more gloomy about the economy than they’ve ever been, and the usual data don’t explain it. A collapse in confidence in leadership does.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

Tatyana Deryugina
@tderyugina.bsky.social

#EconSky: Going on the econ job market this year or know someone who is? Come to the free virtual job market workshop by Economists for Ukraine, featuring UC Berkeley's placement director Ben Handel and recent PhD graduate Yevhenii Usenko. Oct. 30, 11am EST econ4ua.org/events/job-m...

econ4ua.orgJob Market Workshop – Economists for UkraineA free virtual workshop on the econ job market, Friday, October 30, 2026, with Benjamin Handel (UC Berkeley) and Yevhenii Usenko (CU Boulder). Register now.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

Edward Luce
@edwardluce.bsky.social

New free link as.ft.com/r/e52a12d7-1...

as.ft.comPutin’s American friends‘Realist’ critics of Nato echo Moscow’s talking points on Ukraine
Edward Luce@edwardluce.bsky.social

"Mearsheimer merits attention because he lends academic respectability to those blaming the west for Russia’s bloody war of conquest. At a moment when the US has swung behind Putin's driove to snuff out Ukraine such cover is invaluable." as.ft.com/r/2861010e-b...

as.ft.comPutin’s American friends‘Realist’ critics of Nato echo Moscow’s talking points on Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

Edward Luce
@edwardluce.bsky.social

Mearsheimer: "Ukraine Isn’t being abandoned, It’s being managed. Trump can't abandon Ukraine because the deep state just won't let him do that." For a perfect example of Trump sane-washing watch this. danieldavisdeepdive.substack.com/p/mearsheime...

danieldavisdeepdive.substack.com🌍 Mearsheimer: Ukraine Isn’t Being Abandoned, It’s Being ManagedWhy Trump needs Russian energy flowing more than he needs escalation in Ukraine
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Respect to Andrew Bailey and colleagues "from France, Germany and a number of Scandinavian and Baltic countries who left the session in Bangkok when the Russian finance minister, Anton Siluanov, addressed the group in Russian." #StandWithUkraine #Ukraine

theguardian.comBank of England governor walks out of IMF summit in protest against RussiaAndrew Bailey among finance leaders to leave session in Bangkok when Russian finance minister addressed group
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Friedman's summary: "Trump’s Democracy-for-Diesel Deal Shames Us All" "Donald Trump, meet Neville Chamberlain. When future students search online for “sellout,” “appeaser”, “traitor to his country’s core values,” their two pictures will come up first, side by side. And deservedly so."

nytimes.comOpinion | Trump’s Democracy-for-Diesel Deal Shames Us AllThe president’s arrangement to import Russian diesel fuel is one more example of how he has sold out American democracy.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

US aid to #Ukraine: from €17B a year to almost 0. US diesel imports from Russia: from banned to allowed, after a Trump–Putin call. Europe carries Ukraine’s military aid. Course of action? 1) Congress: reverse the waiver. 2) Europe: use frozen Russian assets. 3) Enforce the Graham Act by Oct 18.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Russia’s energy sales help pay for $190B of its military spending in 2025, nearly triple 2021. ($200B+ budgeted for 2027; no peace plans!) Ukraine is at $84B, 40% of GDP, & short on defense $. Response? 1) More money for #Ukraine. 2) No deals with Russia. Not one more barrel of its diesel or oil.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

This is absurd. The US just lifted sanctions to import diesel from a country that: (1) bans its own diesel exports, (2) is rationing fuel domestically, (3) is bombing #Ukraine energy infrastructure. This is subsidizing Putin's war chest for fuel he can't even reliably deliver. Who does this serve?

nytimes.comTrump Says He Will Import Russian Diesel Fuel Amid High PricesPresident Trump said Russia had agreed to ship potentially millions of tons of diesel fuel in the coming months. But Russia has an ongoing ban on exporting diesel.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Today, a Russian strike on Pryluky 🇺🇦 killed at least 19 people, incl. 5 children. Same day, in Moscow, ex-🇩🇪 Chancellor Gerhard Schröder told staff of the Russian hypermarket chain whose board he just joined: "I'm very happy to be here... and to meet you, my wonderful colleagues." Moral bankruptcy

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Limiting the Kremlin's ability to finance this war is one of the most direct ways to protect #Ukraine cities like Pryluky. Every ruble Russia doesn't collect is a ruble not spent on missiles. A former chancellor lending his name to business as usual in Moscow is pushing in the opposite direction.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

School Math Olympiad in #Kyiv these days, held in a bomb shelter. Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, so these kids solve geometry problems between pipes and ventilation ducts. Every solved problem is a small act of defiance. 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Talked to @Nestle CEO Mr. Mark Schneider about the side effect of staying in RUS market. Unfortunately, he shows no understanding. Paying taxes to the budget of a terrorist country means killing defenseless children&mothers. Hope that Nestle will change its mind soon. Denys Shmyhal (UKR PM) 3/17/22

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

New piece with @tderyugina.bsky.social and @ilonasolohub.bsky.social The main message is: Europe in 2025 is #Ukraine in 2014. Not investing in defense, thinking the war is local, letting RUS information space, believing that someone else will protect, trying to make a deal with Putin Big mistakes

project-syndicate.orgWill Europe Be as Unprepared as Ukraine Was?Tatyana Deryugina, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Ilona Sologoub say that the main challenge is not merely to spend more, but to change entrenched habits of mind.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Two implications for policy: For Ukraine: rebuilding isn't just about replacing destroyed capital. It's about reconnecting what remains — workers, firms, markets. That requires policy adjustment, not just funding.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

For Europe: economic preparedness should go beyond defense budgets and strategic reserves. If half the cost of war is allocative, then pre-conflict investments in institutional flexibility and rapid reallocation capacity may yield extraordinary returns.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

A new piece with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social The USSR perfected deploying "independent" voices to deliver Kremlin messages while appearing to challenge them. Melnichenko's Economist piece is the same playbook. The correct response to such "visions" is one word: nyet. #Ukraine

kyivpost.comWhy The Economist Scoop Was a Polite Version of the Same Moscow ThreatThe storied British news journal merely flogged a standard Russian threat couched as a “wind of change.”

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

Tatyana Deryugina
@tderyugina.bsky.social

I have a new policy brief on Russia's wartime economy (with Mariia Dzholos and Oleksii Shpanel-Yukhta. TL;DR: Russia can't sustain this war much longer without imposing substantial hardship on its population. Accompanying op-ed here: voxukraine.org/en/russia-s-...

voxukraine.orgRussia’s War Economy Is Running Down. Europe Should Press HarderIn mid-July, European leaders will gather for another review of the Union's sanctions against Russia. It is therefore a fitting...

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

jeeanews.bsky.social
@jeeanews.bsky.social

Replying to @jeeanews.bsky.social

How do firms form inflation expectations in a heterogeneous monetary union? Using novel euro area survey data, including an RCT, the paper shows that firms' beliefs are consistent with Bayesian updating, extrapolating from regional and national inflation to euro area expectations

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

jeeanews.bsky.social
@jeeanews.bsky.social

Forthcoming article "Firms’ Inflation Expectations in a Monetary Union" by Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and @treinelt.bsky.social @eeanews.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/jeea...

doi.orgFirms’ Inflation Expectations in a Monetary UnionAbstract. Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial, we show that firms’

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

Ilona Solohub
@ilonasolohub.bsky.social

Everyone is amazed at the development of drone industry in Ukraine. Ukrainian firms are ready to share the experience and technologies, but Ukraine needs more "conventional" weapons such as missiles. Our op-ed with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social www1.project-syndicate.org/commentary/h...

www1.project-syndicate.orgInside Ukraine’s Game-Changing Drone IndustryYuriy Gorodnichenko, Viktor Koziuk and Ilona Sologoub examine the nuts and bolts of how the country has turned military necessity into world-leading technology.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Trump promised to finish the war in one day It has been 531 days since his inauguration and RU continues to destroy Kyiv and other cities in #Ukraine kyivindependent.com/russian-atta...

kyivindependent.comMassive Russia attack hits apartment buildings in Kyiv, killing 8, injuring 34Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones toward Kyiv overnight on July 6, hours after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of yet another large-scale attack targeting the capital.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko reposted

OlhaZadorozhna
@olhazadorozhna.bsky.social

1/3 New episode of #PolicyImplications with Jacob Kirkegaard. We discuss what Europe has actually built since 2022: the EU has become essential on money, sanctions, coordination, and long-term support for UA. But EU defence future increasingly runs through UA. Link: tinyurl.com/5hfs7u9p

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social

Op-ed with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social Every concession framed as “diplomacy” is a village burned. When Western leaders repeat RUS “newspeak,” they become its amplifiers. After 12 years of RUS aggression, #Ukraine doesn't need borrowed euphemisms from its partners. UKR needs more effective weapons.

kyivpost.comNegotiations’ Are Traps – How Russia Tweaks Language to Deceive the WestEvery concession framed as “diplomacy” is a village burned. Every time Western leaders repeat Russian “newspeak,” they become its amplifiers.