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Over and over: Either the ridiculously reckless Trump gamble kind of works out, in which case they learn they are unstoppable God-kings immune to consequences, or it doesn't and there are terrible ramifications for... mostly other people. So utterly bleak.

Chris Hayes@chrislhayes.bsky.social

This was clear from the jump, but the Venezuela invasion going as smoothly as it did, from a pure operational perspective, is going to prove catastrophic in the long run.

Oil going to $200 a barrel would be bad for Republicans in the midterms but utterly ruin the lives of tens of millions of people. Hard to cheer for that. On the other hand, if Iran makes nice and the Strait reopens, we're probably talking about bombing Cuba before too long. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

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I think he's going to go after Cuba whatever happens. If Iran makes nice and the Strait reopens, he's going to think he's invincible and go 3 for 3. But if that *doesn't* happen, he's going to want to go after Cuba like Dubya invading Iraq to get a win after the Tora Bora cockup.

Doubt Iran will fold - and even if US-Israel stopped tomorrow and there was a cease fire all that processing plant will take a long time to repair. Oil will stay high to end of year more likely.

Banning export would have a local impact on fuel prices. It would disconnect local pricing from global supply and demand forces. Obviously, lots of other reasons why it would be a bad idea, but Trump might still do it. He's a fan of short term thinking.

Cuba... Or Greenland? Shit at this point I wouldn't be surprised if El Presidenté decides Vancouver looks tasty.

His base backs this - the issue is his base is smaller. You’ve got loud talking heads speaking out but most of them are like Tucker Carlson & won’t actually do anything about it because they know they don’t have a base of their own