Post

G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com

here's my take: he's extrapolating from interviews he did with people, and that is not an empirical basis for predicting potential polling error. i am additionally a little skeptical of this narrative, which is basically just another way to punch left to demonstrate media neutrality (derogatory)

Philip Bump@pbump.com

This is functionally equivalent to the CBS exec who hollered at the reporter about how much better she knew Mideast politics.

40 reposts337 likes

Ari Ofsevit
@ofsevit.bsky.social

129,000 of whom maybe 100,000 are of voting age. Mostly secular, and not likely to be very swingy voters. You’re not finding many Harris—>Rogers voters in polls because there aren’t very many of them to poll!

Elizabeth Bisbee
@bisbee4148.bsky.social

Funny how they never feel a need to punch right, even when the people on the right have far more punchable faces). Peters is one who’s still not over his MS lunch table exclusion. Such a pill. So insufferable.

Andrew Burton
@burtonad.bsky.social

Michigan’s Jewish population is about 1.5% of the total. Say it’s 2% of the voting electorate, and say 10% of Jewish voters stay home, and 10% switch to the GOP. Republicans pick up 0.4% swing and 0.2% stay home, or 0.6%. Not negligible, but only decisive in a very tight contest.

Your Pal in Ypsi
@ypsidoodle.bsky.social

There are several "Democrats for Rogers" ads running here, including one featuring a "Jewish Democrat" woman who "fears for her grandchildren." They're definitely spending a lot to scare up votes.

JSB
@jbsp.bsky.social

Too bad for Gary Peters. I assume that who said that comment. If he does not like it he should keep his mouth shut and maybe stump for El-Sayed. It has always been amazing to me how Democrats will without hesitation "devour their kids" so to speak but you never hear Republicans do the same

lil homie
@reikiricardo.bsky.social

A study by the Jewish Political Voices Project found there’s ~40,000 Jewish democrats in Michigan. 50% of them would have to vote R to swing the vote with the same margins as last election. Every single one of them could vote R and it wouldn’t swing the vote with more typical margins

lil homie
@reikiricardo.bsky.social

So not only is the narrative silly on reasoning grounds, it’s silly on political strategy grounds. Pandering an entire parties strategy to win the votes of 40,000 in a state with 8 million voters is just nonsense by any measure

emily schuch
@emschuch.bsky.social

this reporter is telling on themselves that they don't understand the difference between quantitative and qualitative research. each is a useful tool to solve for very different things.

John Reeves
@reevesjw.bsky.social

"Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same."

Ah Sierra
@ahsierra.bsky.social

1.4% of the TOTAL Michigan electorate. And majority are progressive. So, AT MOST, half of them will vote for Rogers if we are being kind. At a 50% turnout, that's about 25K votes for Rogers from the Jewish vote in MI.