Post

Leon Simons
@leonsimons.com

🚨BREAKING🚨 The most recent RELATIVE Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) forecast shows we could be facing the strongest El Niño in observed history!! This could lead to dystopian global climate change impacts over the next 1.5 years. No one is prepared.

122 reposts275 likes

Leon Simons
@leonsimons.com

RONI is the 3.4 ONI relative to global tropical average sea surface temperature. It can be a more accurate indicator in the near term because ONI is centered on the average of the past 30 years, as the next 15 are unknown. See ONI and RONI from 1950 with 120-month average:

Zeke Hausfather
@zekehausfather.com

What specifically was I "very wrong about"? If your case is that a strong El Nino is evidence of high climate sensitivity, I suspect you don't understand what El Nino is 😛

Marsanges
@marsanges.bsky.social

uh huh what does it mean? It makes sense that the Nino gets stronger if the surface see gets hotter right? Like hurricanes got stronger. Would it mean that its effects get stronger too? Like drought in Australia IIRC? Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic? More heat into the atmosphere, onwards to 2.0

André Sobolewski
@andre-sobolewski.bsky.social

We're rushing headlong into this disaster, but there is only mild interest anymore. I started my company to develop climate solutions in 2022 when there was strong investor interest, but it fell off the cliff since then and we shut our doors.

anlomedad
@anlomedad.bsky.social

Wow, the regional impacts part, and whether strong Nino's produce exceptional impacts, was precisely what I was looking for. www.4billionyearson.org/climate/enso The one in the Baltics where strong Ninos might flip the impacts upside down observed during medium Ninos is particularly intriguing.

4billionyearson.orgEl Niño / La Niña — ENSO TrackerWhere in the El Niño / La Niña cycle is the Pacific right now? Weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomalies, ONI, MEI, SOI and the live NOAA forecast plume.
anlomedad
@anlomedad.bsky.social

Because it is a new website, I dare asking for an addition: make the ENSO sections on the page share-able? You know, so I can share a specific URL that scrolls down on the page to the target.

Roos
@roos346.bsky.social

Wat staat hier nou precies? Wat kan ik uit deze grafiek lezen? En daarnaast: serieus, als ik het al niet begrijp, hoe kun je dan verbaasd zijn dat niemand hier op reageert of actie onderneemt.

Roland Gerritsen van der Hoop
@rgh1205.bsky.social

If this is what I think it is there is a good chance for an unusually warm ocean temperature this summer resulting in massive weather events. That needs to be communicated better. This is not just El Niño, but El Niño on steroids.

phyoto.bsky.social
@phyoto.bsky.social

Perhaps there was a little bit of exaggeration of how bad the world would change from the 2016 and 2024 El Niños. But this is no exaggeration. Even if it was a mild El Niño, this is happening at the exact point in time the world slips into actual climate meltdown.

Hufke
@huffke.bsky.social

I'd normally try to discard this as fear mongering, but this does look pretty damn dramatic. No one is prepared for this really.

Serene Doomer
@serenaribena.bsky.social

And remember it will collide with the fallout of Trump’s war. The shortage of fertiliser means less crops have been planted. Also, fuel shortages and high prices will lead to more heat deaths, especially in places like Asia, which are already experiencing dangerous heat even before this el niño.