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Biden failed at many things but he made a major break with Clintonite free trade and especially Obama's pint-sized stimulus policy and got basically no credit for it. Not Great for the prospects of future full employment

I think a lot of hard left accounts on here don’t fully realize the extent to which the center-left genuinely believes they made a good faith effort to reach out which was met with rejection, betrayal, and libel. You may not think it accurate or fair, but the belief is sincerely held.

"if you do full employment hard enough to compress wages a lot even big chunks of the left will complain about the resulting price increases for fast food, so keep the job market slack" is a frankly pretty plausible lesson to learn from ARP

yeah this is my real interpretation. never been more important to sell your agenda, doesn't matter what it is, nothing will get through if you don't have a propaganda arm and the president can barely talk bsky.app/profile/notd...

Ed@notdred.bsky.social

There’s an element of “got no credit” but also an element of “claimed no credit” tbh. You can’t simultaneously refuse to talk to the public and also complain that nobody’s recognizing your successes

true, but a big wrinkle here though is that Dems also got *killed* in the 2010 midterms when unemployment was at its peak. if Trump touches off a recession or financial crisis I expect a similar backlash bsky.app/profile/mcir...

McIrwin@mcirwin47.bsky.social

I mean it’s a chicken or the egg situation between the media and the people writ large, but the media was laser focused on inflation while also not providing the full picture (supply shock, the benefits of higher wages, etc.) during during the Biden years while it kind of shrugged at unemployment

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Dems (and myself) perhaps overlearned the lessons of the post-2008 lost decade, but it's still an important lesson imo. recessions are not popular, that's like the most robust finding in all of political science

I don't think most people know what a recession is, and things getting more expensive and there being increased disruption among service workers people depend on probably felt like one.

on that point: I definitely did not anticipate how unpopular an ultra-tight, inequality-reducing labor market would be. what people seem to want is 2019 when jobs are plentiful but wages and prices are still flat. I'd guess that taxing the rich wouldn't create such a backlash though

Similarly one day historians will look back at the Biden period and note we were two votes shy of ending child poverty in the US but the fear that was causing eggs to cost $1 more per dozen proved too much

But average wage increase doesn't mean everyone has more money -- not everyone is employed, not everyone who is employed is in an industry with rising wages, etc -- but everyone has less money when energy and food prices rise.

I don't think you can fairly judge the popularity of Biden's economy when there was rampant inflation driven by the pandemic and no cheerleader. You need someone at the bully pulpit shaping the narrative and the man was a zombie.

What they wanted was for exiting a global pandemic to be completely painless, for a billion people returning to their lives at once to cause 0% inflation, and for trillions in covid benefits to go on indefinitely, none of which was going to happen.

Feels like the pubic debates for the 2010 midterms were about undeserving people getting bailouts (which was absurd) and an incoherent debate about the ACA (also absurd, but in different ways)

A recession killing their run is dependent on it becoming the theme and being tied to them. I doubt the media has the will to do either of those things. Something else will be the problem of the day. Obstruction will be the cause, not the implemented policies.