Aryn Toombs

Aryn Toombs

@aryn.bsky.social

Sometimes I write, sometimes I take photos, and sometimes I use R to parse large data sets in the millions of entries.

3.5K followers1.4K following546 posts

Aryn Toombs reposted

The referendum drama in Alberta is over. Up next: the highly contentious redrawing of electoral boundaries! The advisory panel that was appointed in June is due to give its report to the UCP-controlled Select Special Committee *tomorrow* (Oct. 22). Some thoughts on this from a poll we did in May:

robsonfletcher.comAlbertans are paying attention to electoral boundary changes and uncomfortable with what they see · Robson FletcherTwo-thirds of Albertans say they're aware of the province's unusual electoral boundary process — and most want it out of politicians' hands.

Alberta election referendum results so far, by the numbers: conclusive rejection of Alberta leaving Canada, but there is much more nuance in the other 9 questions depending on the rural/urban/suburban divide.

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Q9, provincial laws take priority over federal laws: No 50.24%, Yes 49.76%, a margin of 7,521 votes with mail-in ballots still being counted. Too close to call.

Alberta's Question 10, unofficial results: Remain 75.2%, Start separation process 24.8%. Remain leads in 85 of 87 ridings, including every Calgary and Edmonton riding. 96% of polls reporting; official results Oct. 29.

Alberta election referendum results so far, by the numbers: conclusive rejection of Alberta leaving Canada, but there is much more nuance in the other 9 questions depending on the rural/urban/suburban divide.

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7, abolish the Senate: Yes 51.0%, No 49.0%. Yes leads province-wide, but No leads in more ridings (46 of 87). Rural 64% Yes, Calgary and Edmonton 41%.

Q8, opt out of federal programs with full funding: No 52.9%, Yes 47.1%. Calgary and Edmonton 64% No; rural ridings 61% Yes. No leads in 51 of 87 ridings.

Alberta election referendum results so far, by the numbers: conclusive rejection of Alberta leaving Canada, but there is much more nuance in the other 9 questions depending on the rural/urban/suburban divide.

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Q5, proof of citizenship to vote: Yes 60.1%, No 39.9%. The only question where Calgary and Edmonton also leaned Yes, narrowly (51%). Yes leads in 67 of 87 ridings.

Q6, provinces select King's Bench and Appeal Court judges: No 52.0%, Yes 48.0%. Calgary and Edmonton 63% No; rural ridings 63% Yes.

Alberta election referendum results so far, by the numbers: conclusive rejection of Alberta leaving Canada, but there is much more nuance in the other 9 questions depending on the rural/urban/suburban divide.

View full thread

Q4, health and education fees for non-permanent residents: Yes 52.7%, No 47.3%. Rural ridings 67% Yes, Calgary and Edmonton 43%.

Alberta election referendum results so far, by the numbers: conclusive rejection of Alberta leaving Canada, but there is much more nuance in the other 9 questions depending on the rural/urban/suburban divide.

Q2, provincial programs limited by immigration status: Yes 52.1%, No 47.9%. Yes leads province-wide, but No leads in more ridings (46 of 87), carried by Calgary and Edmonton.

We talk a lot about representation in the media, but that’s a conversation that goes both ways. Platforming fringe voices in the extreme without context is a disservice to the public, and CBC needs to a deep look at all of their coverage this referendum election for that issue.

Steve Ricketts@stevericketts.bsky.social

This CBC panel is driving me nuts. Especially Martha Hall Finley. She's advocating for electoral reform, so what does she have in mind, just handing Alberta more seats because it feels neglected and unimportant?

The count is still very much in progress, but as of this morning the remain in Canada vote is an overwhelming victory.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Last week, I finally had enough with the CBC refusing to fact check Smith’s lie that this referendum is the result of the Citizen Initiative Act. The response was to claim oh but it’s the “spirit of the law!”and my follow up.

What does this remain/separatism polling look like if you display by electoral district (population) instead of by land mass? It shows significantly less visual support for separatism in Alberta than if the ED boundaries map is used.

Polling Canada@canadianpolling.bsky.social

Here's that Mainstreet independence referendum poll Remain: 68 Ridings Independence: 19 Ridings

Aryn Toombs reposted

Other newshounds were not in the room. True North banned them. Rick Bell was there. He had special permission from D Smith's office, my colleague was told.

Alex Boyd@alexboyd.bsky.social

calgaryherald.com/opinion/colu...

Aryn Toombs reposted

Hey, neighbour! Albertans are called to vote in a provincial referendum that may shape the future of this province and of our nation. You can cast your ballot early at your assigned advance voting location until Saturday, October 17, from 9am to 8pm, ahead of Election Day on Monday, October 19.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Will we see this noted scribbler scribble outrage that journalists (er, most at least) were barred from True North’s speechfest?

Alex Boyd@alexboyd.bsky.social

For the record, since this story says media was denied access, I also tried to attend and as I was waiting in the hallway for an organizer (who said go away) I saw a certain scribbler from this very paper leaving the main room and was told he had an arrangement with the premier to hear her speak.

Aryn Toombs reposted

In the wake of The Globe's investigation, a Calgary MP calls for Canada to consider overhauling laws to address the kind of freelance negotiating trips Alberta separatists made to DC: www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic... By Grant Robertson, Nathan VanderKlippe, and friend

theglobeandmail.comAlberta separatists’ talks with GOP spark outcry, call for legislative changeCalgary Liberal MP says Canada needs to consider overhauling its laws to address the kind of freelance negotiating trips that separatist leaders have made to D.C.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Populist leaders depend heavily on popularity. When it collapses, so does their claim to speak for “the people.” Their base sees them as less useful, and they lack a broader coalition to fall back on. So they rig the game to keep playing, further fueling democratic backsliding.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Aryn Toombs reposted

Aryn Toombs reposted

Mayor Farkas wants to call a potential special meeting to make a clear statement on Calgary endorsing Alberta remaining a part of Canada. Some councillors don't like the idea. #yyc #yyccc #calgary buff.ly/eukS2ur

buff.lyMayor wants special Alberta referendum meeting; other Calgary city councillors don'tIn a memo to colleagues, obtained by LWC, Ward 1 Coun. Kim Tyers laid out why she didn't want a special meeting of Calgary city council.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Separatist leader and self appointed envoy to the US to bargain on separation is allegedly compromised with US investors threatening to call in over $100 million in debt. This is on top of the First Nations actions. #abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli globalnews.ca/news/1204911...

globalnews.caAlberta separatist leader Rath faces $109M debt claim from US investors  | Globalnews.caAn American litigation funder is threatening to call in more than $100 million in alleged debt from Alberta separatist leader and lawyer Jeffrey Rath and his firm

Aryn Toombs reposted

Most people seem to think that Russian interference efforts are aimed at Alberta separatists, implying that they are somehow more susceptible to manipulation. In reality, these campaigns are more effective in driving up polarization and demobilizing moderates & federalists. Be on the lookout.

Aryn Toombs reposted

From the DM’s/Reddit… Looks like the new Alberta Healthcare rollout is going just as smoothly as the ADAP rollout. Danielle Smith likes to say that the UCP can walk and chew gum at the same time. Sure doesn’t look that way… #abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

Aryn Toombs reposted

Aryn Toombs reposted

“We will accept anonymous submission for our plan on separation as long as you sign an NDA” is a sign of a very serious and well organized effort. With less than 3 months to the vote. #abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

There is something incredibly gross about individuals using the search for Parker to try and achieve their own self-interested aims. I get it, you don’t like this one thing, but now is not the time. Don’t be a ghoul.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Hey, neighbour. Today I spoke to Calgary's media to share the message from the Calgary Police Service for all Calgarians to search their front yards and backyards for Parker. We want to get this young man home to his family as soon as possible, so please do your part to look at your home.

That's a wrap for the Calgary Stampede for another year. And while it means the past week of non-stop events and visits the grounds has ended, I will miss the lights of the fireworks and the midway.

Aryn Toombs reposted

"Let the separatist cowboys have their costumes. Let them pound the bar, or promise miracle cures or gold beyond the next hill. We have a phrase for that in my family: all hat, no cattle." My latest for LeadNotLeave.ca. www.readtheline.ca/p/jared-wesl...

leadnotleave.caLead. Not Leave. | Pro-Alberta, Pro-Canada Policy InitiativeAlbertans want real solutions, not a divisive separation referendum. Explore policy proposals, the climate/energy MOU, and an alternative path for Alberta.

It’s probably going to be a hard pill to swallow for the Calgary media folks at 660 and 960 they get laid off and the Rogers bigwigs party at Barbarella just down the street.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Columnist Courtney Walcott said that given we can feed anyone who wants a meal for 10 days during the Calgary Stampede, surely it's possible to improve many Calgarians' food security for the other 355 days of the year. #yyc #calgary buff.ly/oVI8Q8D

livewirecalgary.comWalcott: The Calgary Stampede - A glimpse at ending food insecurityEvery year, the Calgary Stampede does something that, for most of the year, society pretends is impossible. Through volunteerism, charity, and corporate sponsorship, Calgary feeds all who want a meal…

Aryn Toombs reposted

Who wants to go to the Calgary Surge game tonight against the Brampton Honey Badgers? It's Star Wars night (game time 7:30 p.m.) We've got 4 tickets to give away! Drop us a reply and we'll choose a winner by 1 p.m. today! (Let us know if you want two or four tickets). #yyc #calgary

Aryn Toombs reposted

via #Sundre Pro Rodeo on FB: "Please see official statement from the Sundre Pro Rodeo and Race Association." Context: separatists entered a float covered in Alberta flags, they were denied, started harassing volunteers, float was approved, harassment continued, parade cancelled. #Alberta #abpoli

If you ever wondered why it was that your local municipal councillor doesn’t get back to you, it’s probably due to in large part the volume of form letters filling up the inbox making it impossible to see yours.

Aryn Toombs reposted

Saturday morning coffee and a read: Come Aug. 4, 60,000+ parcels around LRT, BRT and MAX BRT Stations will be downzoned, despite transit zones being the widely suggested place to put more density. There is still no replacement plan. #yyc #calgary #yyccc buff.ly/QLBFhFm

livewirecalgary.com60,000+ parcels near LRT and BRT stations face downzoning, with no Calgary replacement plan in placeMore than 60,000 parcels within 600 metres of Calgary Transit LRT or Max BRT zones will be downzoned come Aug. 4, despite being where blanket rezoning opponents suggested greater density. The full…

Aryn Toombs reposted

Today I was happy to support a motion put forward by Cllr. McLean that would have other options for a downtown Green Line alignment put on the table. This is a step towards putting the Green Line back on track for the north, where we know neighbours want regular and reliable transit service.

Aryn Toombs reposted