Austin reposted
good piece, and interesting because (if I'm understanding it correctly) it reflects that both sides of the vibescession argument are half-right. consumer sentiment *is* tracking a material phenomenon, but it's also somewhat irrational because it's detached from real wages
The index of consumer sentiment isn't broken; models that try to predict it just don't have the right input variables. I fix that and find that, yes, high nominal price levels explain why the vibes are so off. It's the prices, stupid www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-14...