charlessurface.bsky.social

“The bond market is no longer waiting for the Fed to tighten financial conditions. High term premia, inflation uncertainty and government borrowing needs can keep longer-dated yields restrictive even when the expected path of short rates becomes less aggressive.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I can't wait to find out why this is actually good.

I think there's also arguments against an AI bubble, but this graph tells a very specific story that's hard to argue with. The real fear is that these companies have hidden leverage through future construction deals that radiate through the US economy.

Look at the Daily Telegraph today.

It's refreshing to see this stated so plainly. Well done Davey.

Poland and Lalaland implies the further existence of Dipsyland and Tinkywinkyland

A lot of people finding out Lewis Goodall can be confidently wrong about stuff should have realised that a *long* time ago.

An examination of pharmaceutical supply chains in post-war Vienna.

"You'll never reach 25K followers with a very niche aviation site purely for obsessives" Prove this right or wrong by sharing or not as you wish.

What if Andy Burnham could raise £15bn – without a tax rise? There's one catch. He'd need to solve the UK’s biggest and least-discussed tax problem. Almost half of all small business corporation tax isn't being paid - and nobody knows why. Thread:

Things that some people simply refuse to believe even though they're true:

Said it before and I'll say it again, you don't need to agree with Zack Polanski's politics to call out what is quite clearly in my view, antisemitic caricaturing. And no, saying this doesn't lend him any political credibility. It just means we should critique his views and actions not appearance

February 19, 2026

Overall, the combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget is progressive. Incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution have increased by 1.0 per cent and incomes for households in the top half fell by 0.7 per cent.

Newsom: "He doesn't play by a different set of rules. He doesn't believe in the rules. As a consequence, we need to disabuse ourselves of the way things have been done. It's not enough to just hold hands, have a candlelight vigil, talk about way the world should be...we have got to meet fire w/fire"

"The way to see off the populist right isn’t to cower in its shadow; it’s to step up and offer a compelling, positive alternative." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

YEP

Great video. Boils it down to the absolute basics. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/14/o...